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#15 Sandro Santana – 2.11 ERA, 1.016 Whip, 14.2 SO at three levels and he seemed to improve as he moved upat each level (a factor with top prospects that often indicates someone very special). I expect him to make the Cardinal team opening the season, especiaiiy if there is a delay to the mlb season. Another stint at Memphis would really make it happen. A chance that he would become the closer by the end of the season. In this day of baseball relief pitchers especially closers ar key to chamtionships.
#16 Miguel Hernandez, a good fielding infielder with some pop. And only 18. Another good comedity in todays ame.
“Santana has 33 innings above A+ level.”
That’s basically true. (Including the AAA postseason, his grand total is 36.1 innings above A-Ball.)
In those 36.1 innings across Double-A and triple-A, Sandro permitted only 4 runs, on 11 hits, and fanned 57 men. I’d like to say that minor league pitchers whose strikeouts are 5X their hits allowed over a solid sample size in the upper minors tend to go on to great MLB success. But I can’t say that. Because there’s no such thing as another pitcher who ever had 5X as many strikeouts as hits allowed over a solid sample size in the upper minors.
Santana may not make the opening day roster, but he will be in the bullpen by mid season. Like I said, I expect him to be better than Romero was for us, at least by the metrics. That was 4 bWAR (1.8 fWAR, FG didn’t like him as much). Lest you put that number down, in the extremely deep 2018 class, where 39 of the 65 votees made the big leagues, 4 WAR would have ranked 14th, between Austin Gomber (who we voted 10th) and Dylan Carlson (who we voted 18th). Even for extremely stacked farm systems, it’s unusual to have all that many guys become multiple year average or above contributors. I think Santana has one of the highest probabilities to become just that of any prospect we have.
I have Santana coming up soon on my list, but I want to point out the issue that will be coming up with him this coming year. At some point the strike out pitchers find out they can’t just throw it past everybody like they always have. He wasn’t in AAA long enough for batters and orgs to get familiar, but it will be a thing this coming season. Sometimes they have enough in their bag of tricks to get past that. Sometimes they reach back for a little more, and a little more until they blow out their arm. Moving up too fast, before learning the art of facing more advanced batters, is hazardous.
I just can’t take a reliever yet, even with Santanas dominance. For example, if Doyle, Franklin, or an Odle get shifted to the bullpen they are less valuable IMO. Some of these shifts are going to happen, but not without a long leash at starting. There are just too many position players and starting pitching candidates that I have ranked higher. In past years Santana might be a top 10 possibility.
I’m with you Cardinals27 on taking a reliever, and I’m tired of simply being Bob Reed’s lap dog in every vote.
Bob could focus a little more at scratching behind my ears.
15 Miguel Hernandez
16 Sandro Santana
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