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Thanks, gscottar. It will be on Monday, December 15th. We’ll give it the 4 days, barring any trades that pop up over the weekend (we can always add days to that as well).
This is difficult because there are guys who I want to put in front of both but they ended up further back in the list. And vice versa.
I agree. I do think it’s the best way to slot these guys in, given that we all would have voted for them in different places had they been eligible at the beginning of the process.
I agree with jnevel about the difficulty here. I feel good about my Clarke rating, but I could put Pushard anywhere from 23 to 35. I like him a wee bit more than Granillo, but I’d rather have Dutkanych than Pushard. I’ll split the difference.
Clarke 10
Pushard 29Clarke 20
Pushard 50Clarke has already had Tommy John surgery, two separate serious shoulder problems, and served time on the disabled list for blisters. Plus he couldn’t get High-A batters out at age 22, where he walked 25 men in 28 innings. I don’t care if he throws 100, 150, or 200 miles an hour. He’s a long, long, longshot.
Why isn’t Ryan Murphy an option for this list?
Would anyone actually vote for him? We can add him to the next round if we make any trades if people would actually want to add him. But his numbers don’t seem to impress much and he’s been injured a ton.
For me…
Brandon Clarke #14-I can’t really see him as being better than Hence or Hjerpe, but I would definitely slot him ahead of Padilla. The huge fastball and wicked slider give him a base as an impact reliever if he can stay healthy.
Matt Pushard #40-I wasn’t crazy high on Elissalt but I would see Pushard as a touch better bet than Frank, given his location and the Rule 5 spot. Good fastball, good against righties, not so great against lefties. Would be fine in the 40-50 range.
#9. Brandon Clarke
#32. Matt PushardClarke slots in behind Yairo Padilla and above Chen-Wei Lin for me. Tremendous upside in his arm with high risk. But we are talking a guy that has Jacob Misiorowski level stuff.
Pushard I put behind Nate Dohm, but in front of Ellisalt and Blaze Jordan. Pushard looks like he could be a decent middle RP this year and maybe be a more a go to type 7th inning guy at some point
I personally would’ve started voting on all the broken arms at #20, as I view them all as relievers now, as none of them has shown the ability to stay on the mound as a starter.
I would rank them:
– Roby
– Hence
– Clarke
– HjerpeSo, I’ll put Clarke as 23
As for Pushard, there’s probably a 50% chance he is returned to his former organization right now, so I will leave him unranked.
I personally would’ve started voting on all the broken arms at #20, as I view them all as relievers now, as none of them has shown the ability to stay on the mound as a starter.
I agree. I reluctantly voted them a little higher than the 20’s but this obsession with the MASH brigade is strange, if not borderline fantasy. They have proven nothing.
I’m in the middle of most of you on Clarke, I wouldn’t put him in the top 10, but top 20. That being said, if he is getting national recognition that highly, trade bait?
Clarke – 15
Pushard – 40 (mainly because he has no where to go but STL)Given the sheer numbers of LH SP in the high minors I almost feel Roby is the one that’s needed to come back stronger than before, and he was on that path.
Unfortunately, Hence and Hjerpe are extremely good-great BP guys at this point, until they prove us wrong.So…we are a little less than 4 hours out from finishing the vote on Clarke and Pushard. I had figured that the voting would be a little tighter than it was, especially for Clarke, and the data so far is showing a pretty tight mean and median for each of Clarke and Pushard, which is not necessarily jiving with the initial thought I had. This would mean that Clarke in particular would be voted in at literally the last spot anyone voted for him, if voting were to end now.
So for anyone following along, I think the fairest way to slot them will be based on all three metrics, which I will post for each player when we conclude voting.
I agree. I reluctantly voted them a little higher than the 20’s but this obsession with the MASH brigade is strange, if not borderline fantasy. They have proven nothing.
I wanted to comment on this. All prospects have proven nothing, really. We’ve seen guy after guy tear it up at a young age (or not so young age) in Springfield or Memphis and then become nothing at the big league level. I showed before in this thread that in most years, less than 30 of the top 50 even make it to the majors, and less than half of those guys end up as regulars. So by the time you’re in the back half of the 2nd ten in voting, you’re looking at a 40% or so chance to even make it to the big leagues and around a 15-20% chance to stick long term.
For me, it’s about balancing floor, ceiling and proximity to the big leagues. For guys like Hence and Roby, they are close to the big leagues (I consider guys who will start at Springfield or higher just a good half year to year from making a big league debut) and have a high ceiling due to their stuff being so good. They also have a low floor because they tend to get hurt. You also have guys like Pete Hansen and Hancel Rincon, who are also close to the big leagues. They have a low ceiling because their stuff isn’t all that good. I’d also say their floor isn’t all that high, since they will struggle to get big league hitters out. But let’s say their floor is higher than Hence and Roby due to the injury risk. Still, if I was to just round ballpark numbers for outcomes of each guy, I’d say something like this:
Elite Starter-Hence 5%, Roby 3%, Rincon 1%, Hansen <1%
Average Starter-Hence 5%, Roby 5%, Rincon 3%, Hansen 3%
Back End Starter-Hence 5%, Roby 5%, Rincon 5%, Hansen 5%
High Leverage Reliever-Hence 10%, Roby 10%, Rincon 5%, Hansen 5%
Mop Up Reliever/AAAA Guy-Hence 25%, Roby 20%, Rincon 30%, Hansen 30%
No Big Leagues-Hence 50%, Roby 57%, Rincon 56%, Hansen 57%
Anyway, from a big league value standpoint, Hence is actually the “safest” pick because he’s most likely to actually provide big league value. He has the highest ceiling and I’d argue the highest floor too (with a 25% chance to provide *some* long term big league value). Roby, Rincon and Hansen all have about the same shot to make a big league debut, but their likely outcomes don’t look the same to me. Roby gets knocked because his injury history is so extensive, but his high end outcomes (22% chance to provide long term MLB value) outweigh the likelihood that Rincon and Hansen “make it” but become a mop up guy (only 14-15% chance to provide long term MLB value) being so high. Thus, those four slotted into my rankings at:
Hence #9 (45+ FV)
Roby #11 (45 FV)
Rincon #28 (35+ FV)
Hansen #32 (35+ FV)That’s my thinking.
Well said by stl25. That’s roughly my thinking, too. Higher ceiling earns some credit, even if there is a lower floor.
Brian and Kyle only have 21 left to rank, and they have not yet ranked 20 of our top 21. The exception was Padilla, who we have 14th, but they have 29th. I’m trying to think through what it means if there is agreement on 20 of the top 21.
The ones on their list who didn’t make our top 50:
Clemente 41 (our 54)
Van Dyke 43 (our 51)
Campos 48 (our 61)
Miura 49 (our 60)
Burns 50 (our 52)The 6th we ranked lowest who have still not made Brian and Kyle’s list:
Torres 28
Cho 30
Hunter 35
Winquest 40
Lucena 42
Love 49Gaps of at least 10 spots
Where we ranked someone more favorably:
Sequera us 33, them 46
Molina 29, 45
Gurevitch 27, 38
Granillo 23, 35
Padilla 14, 29Where they ranked someone more favorably:
Holiday them 34, us 47
Elissalt 31, 41
Honeyman 28, 39
Young 27 38
Crossland 22, 37
Rincon 23, 36We know Winquest was on their list as it was referenced when he was drafted. That means Torres, Cho, Hunter, Lucena, and Love are not. I’m not surprised by any of those not making it. I had Cho, Hunter, and Torres just barely in my top 50 with Love just outside of 60 and Lucena nowhere on my radar.
Van Dyke was the one I was surprised most about making it on their list.
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