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For those dreaming about free agent spending this winter this should serve as a sobering reminder.
Spoiler: Not Happening.
An early look at the Cards' '25 payroll. I'll have spreadsheets & details later. This serves as a "where the Cardinals are" as they enter the offseason & guide for where they might go.
TLDR: The Cards already have their payroll pretty much locked up.https://t.co/95u4w7PCFy
— Jason Hill (@JPHill_Cards) September 25, 2024
I dont think anyone had any illusions this year far as free agents. Change will have to come from within.
If they are really going to rebuild, why get cute and spend money on Gibson or Lynn, or the reliever? Trade Helsley, then put the money toward whatever lack of development they’ve been scrimping on lately. Arenado will probably start to complain, so he’s going too if he wants to. Bring back Goldy on the cheap for the farewell tour and you’re set. Payroll then would be, what…$100M maybe? That’s $60 million on minors development to hire some outfield coaches or whatever they think they need to do.
I don’t think you bring Goldy back. Try to deal Mikolas and Arenado if you can do that without taking on too much of their salaries. Might even deal Sonny at the deadline next year if we are well out of it then. Same
with Willson.Helsley is prime trade bait as well as you are selling high on him. Could get a nice return that will pay off a couple years down the road.
If Mo is to remain in charge, any rebuild will be a calamity. It won’t do any good to have 3 times as many guys who don’t know what they are doing working within a failed system.
If they are really going to rebuild, why get cute and spend money on Gibson or Lynn, or the reliever? Trade Helsley, then put the money toward whatever lack of development they’ve been scrimping on lately
This has been said? Rebuild?
They might trade Helsley’s but I can’t see that much of a impact return for a closer in the last year of his deal.
They aren’t going to choke on a bunch of payroll to get rid of NA and Mikolas assuming anyone wants Miles. NA maybe but the return seems limited for a 2.5 war player who had some trouble parking the baseball in th gaps and over the fence this season.
It really puts Oli in a bind. It’s not his fault they won’t give him enough to make the playoffs. Just enough to maybe luck into a spot. Seems like they are setting up to jettison him next season but he’s not the fall guy for this teams failures in 23 and staying around .500 in 24.
I doubt they get rid of Mikolas. For one thing, then you have to replace him, and he led the team in Starts, Quality Starts and Innings Pitched.
Oli may not be the sole cause of the collapse the last two years but hes certainly part of the mismanagement and disfunction of this organization.
For those dreaming about free agent spending this winter this should serve as a sobering reminder.
To think about it as anything other than a dream would be something gullible fans do. Most years they don’t do it even when they say they are going to do it, or at best they underwhelm. Then they end up explaining it away with what they think is some fancy talk-around. That’s moving past the dream and into reality, which is sobering. The talk-around has runs its course, which is why so many fans are finding others ways to indulge themselves.
They might trade Helsley’s but I can’t see that much of a impact return for a closer in the last year of his deal.
You are definitely underestimatint Helsey’s trade value. Based off similar top closer trades, even one year of Helsey would warrant a 50FV guy (top 100ish prospect).
Goldschmidt gone next year (from Cardinals-not retired) per the Katie Woo at the Athletic from Cardinals sources.
MLBTradeRumors just released their projected arbitration salaries for 2025. Here are the Cardinals projections:
Ryan Helsley (5.105): $6.9MM
JoJo Romero (4.045): $1.9MM
John King (3.145): $1.5MM
Lars Nootbaar (3.076): $2.5MM
Brendan Donovan (3.000): $3.6MM
Andre Pallante (2.145): $2.3MMI guess for 2025 the amount of the payroll reduction really depends on how deeply they want to cut, and who wants out. If Gray, Contreras and Arenado end up elsewhere, payroll could dip as low as $100M. Unfortunately, the players left at that point will be the ones they can’t trade due to their age and contract status.
My prediction: Arenado goes elsewhere, Contreras stays, Gray stays, they find some salary relief on a trade of Mikolas or Matz, and Lynn is let go. Not quite sure about Gibson, but let’s say he’s staying. That probably puts payroll around $130Mish if they find a couple of cheap free agents.
I’m having trouble understanding how it makes sense to spend $130 million on a team that’s not going anywhere.
I’m having trouble understanding how it makes sense to spend $130 million on a team that’s not going anywhere.
It depends on the way the team wants to posture itself for 2025. If they want to go full on tank where they have no qualms about being non competitive, then sure, gut the payroll. But I don’t expect that’s how they’ll couch it unless they want to completely tank ticket sales and TV eyes as well. Cutting $40 million or more off payroll lets you remain semi competitive if the stars align, while moving significant money toward player development and lining Dewitt’s pockets nicely as well.
While I’d prefer them to go for 90 wins as well, the fact that the Cards have won two World Series in my lifetime and have averaged 86.5 wins while doing so tells me that they will take a bet on lucking into a few more wins than this year and lucking out in the playoffs. It’s fine that we disagree, I simply don’t think the Cardinals will completely tear it down to Pirates level. I could be surprised though.
Nice to know there is one more person who prefers a 90 win approach. Thanks for that. Had begun to feel stranded on a deserted island!
I’d prefer they don’t bring Gibson back and just use their prospect pitchers. Need to know if any of these guys are good.
I think we would all like to see a 90 win season but I still haven’t figured out how you do that and rebuild at the same time. I have zero doubts that a rebuild is necessary but only Harry Houdini could win 90 games while doing it.
Sounds right GS. The new budget just put W/L on the back burner.
I’ll remind you I’m a closet Bucs fan, since Roberto. I know the “reset” episode by heart 👀
It sounds like the Diamond/Bally sports TV deal with the cardinals and most of MLB blew up today so that is going to be another wrench in the monkey
I think we would all like to see a 90 win season but I still haven’t figured out how you do that and rebuild at the same time.
What the Cardinals are saying they are going to do in terms of a “reset” is really independent of the major league roster, regardless of what they are saying.
Anybody who believe the Cardinals spin that the big league roster is why they have gutted analytics and player development over the last decade has been sold some fools gold.
Want to win 90 games next year?
Get two corner outfielders, move Donovan to second, Nootbaar to CF, Siani to 4th OF. Dump the options for Lynn & Gibson, sign Lorenzen.
These cost-cutting moves are nothing but punishing the fans for not showing up to watch a team that has not been competitive the last two years.
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