Home › The Cardinal Nation Forums › Open Forum › 2024 Minor League game thread Week 23 – 9/17-22
- This topic has 56 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 11 months ago by
stlcard25.
-
AuthorPosts
-
September 21, 2024 at 1:40 pm #267653
For you minor league aficionados how would you compare Matt Koperniak to Lars Nootbaar? As I recall Noot wasn’t a very highly regarded prospect. He just played himself onto the STL roster and stayed. Koperniak seems a bit similar to me. I know that he is about “out of runway” as they say and is another LH OF but man all he does is hit. I would think a team as offensively challenged as the Cardinals could find a spot on the 26 man for a guy like him.
September 22, 2024 at 5:59 am #267694The #stlcards system was 1-0 on Saturday. The Cardinal Nation’s Player of the Day, shortstop Arquímedes Gamboa, was 2-for-4 with four RBI in Memphis’ shutout win. Other standouts include Zack Thompson, Connor Thomas, Matt Koperniak and Nolan Gorman. https://t.co/W6HXgniitq pic.twitter.com/EbiLOE0pIP
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) September 22, 2024
September 22, 2024 at 7:22 am #267695Gscottar – They are both left handed outfielders. They both can play CF but probably shouldn’t. I’d rate Koperniak as the slightly better CF and overall OF in general, but it’s close enough to be a toss-up. They both have some power when they get into one. While they both have solid speed, neither is really a base stealing threat. Nootbaar definitely hits the ball harder more consistently. To me, that gives him an advantage. It also makes me question whether Koperniak would hit well at the next level. Nootbaar also walks more, although Koperniak isn’t necessarily bad in that department. Neither strikes out a lot. They are basically the same age – Matt being about a half year younger.
Overall, Nootbaar is better. Koperniak could be a 5th outfielder on our bench and would be good in that role. But we already have left handers in Noot, Siani, Scott, and Donovan so Koperniak doesn’t really offer any advantages. He’s not a significantly better fielder or hitter than any of those guys (ok, he’s probably a better hitter than Siani, but light years behind him in defense). Thus, he sits at AAA waiting around for a slew of injuries. Antico is in a bit of the same boat except he’s also behind Koperniak.
The one kind of cool thing about Koperniak is that he was never drafted. He was picked up after the 5-round 2020 draft for like $20,000 in a signing bonus.
September 22, 2024 at 8:41 am #267700
stlcard25ParticipantJnevel, I appreciate your analysis. Still, I’m going to continue to quibble with your views on Koperniak. I think that you’re underrating him.
Siani is one of the worst hitters in MLB history. Scott is not a lot better and projects to mayyyyybe squeak out average at best. Nootbaar may hit the ball hard, but it’s translated into average production over his career so far. Plus he can’t stay on the field. He’s my #1 (well, 1A with Helsley) trade candidate this off-season if we really want to build for the future. Donovan is really an infielder, and now that the Gorman experience is drawing to an end, deserves the starting 2B slot.
Anyway, on to our British friend…he’s old for a prospect, yes. But so was our other friend Matt Carpenter some dozen years ago. Koperniak is a solid .300ish hitter at every stop, even adding in an adjustment period at each level. Career .297 at AAA, .291 at AA, .298 overall. Compare that to Nootbaar who didn’t even sniff those numbers except in a short stint at Memphis and has a career .258 minors average. Donovan is probably a good hitting comp as a .285 career minor league hitter, and we’ve seen that he’s a good solid bat at the major league level.
Bottom line…IMO, Koperniak would provide similar production to Nootbaar, Burleson and Donovan (all in different ways) in the outfield. Two of those guys are getting raises in arb soon, and would probably bring us something useful in a trade. I’d be totally fine with giving Matt a serious look next year if we are going to rebuild. Give Chase Davis (who we can all agree has a ceiling far beyond any of these guys) another year to adjust to the upper minors.
September 22, 2024 at 9:03 am #267701
KeepComingBackParticipantWhat ever happened to having true competitions for young players in spring training? If they can compete well for a job, it’s a good bet they are better in high leverage (risp) situations. And I realize it’s a rhetorical question. We all know whoever Mo is hyping gets the job.
September 22, 2024 at 9:39 am #267702I really have no idea what the Cardinals think they are doing when it comes to player evaluation. Results suggest to me they don’t know what they are doing. Before laser beams and radar and computer generated spreadsheets, cigar chompers knew a little about baseball. A rule of thumb was a guy who hits for average knows what he doing with a bat and a guy who gets on base knows what he is doing at the plate. So taking that, Koperniak has been perfectly competent in both areas but not necessarily stand out until recently, as might be explained by his length of time in the system.
I note that Kopeniak hits lefties well, so he is not a platoon bat.
I note that he seems to be a competent defender.
So a playable outfielder who seems competent offensively.
Hmmm. Do we know of a ML team who is rather desperately in need of at least one player like that?
Given that Walker seems to have big problems both in the field and at the plate, and given that Burleson is a platoon bat and is a weak defender, and given Donovan is most valuable as a UT, and given that Noot may need to cover CF if/when we need more O out of the slot than Siani can provide, why have we not seen what Koperniak looks like vs ML competition?
We obviously need outfield help, so what is the plan? Hope guys get better? Hope BDW grows a checkbook? What?
September 22, 2024 at 9:51 am #267703PadsFS
ParticipantThat’s rather shocking to hear. Nootbaar is only five months older than Koperniak. They are both playing in their age-26 season.
However, Nootbaar has been in the majors for 4 years now compiling a 113 OPS+.
Noot also put up a .900 OPS in Memphis at age 23, which Koperniak has yet to eclipse.
There’s no comparison in my opinion.
September 22, 2024 at 10:14 am #267704I know there is a difference between a 22 year old prospect who looks good as in Noot before he made his debut, and Koperniak who will be 27 this winter. You would project those guys differently, I get that. But the focus needs to be on what the ML roster needs, and the question at the top of the list is how much of what we need can we sift out of what we have.
We need a corner outfielder who can play every day vs righties and lefties, and be ok to stay in for late and close D. Durable. We don’t need a future HoF. We don’t need an All Star, we don’t need a batting champion, we don’t need a gold glove, we don’t need 35 homers. We need a guy who can play. A guy who does not need to be sat out, causing perpetual churn in the lineup and defensive alignment. That is what we need and so that is what we should be looking for. Koperniak is a possibility, so why are we not looking at him right now?
September 22, 2024 at 10:39 am #267705I’m not sure why you believe Nootbaar is a platoon bat. He’s at 101 WRC+ over the past 3 seasons against lefties. He’s at 121 against righties. And he walks over 12% of the time against both. Yes, he is fragile, although his injuries have generally been unrelated. That’s an overall valuable player. Yes, we could trade him if we want to zoom in on a future window. But it does make ‘25 likely worse. I’m not buying that Koperniak would be an upgrade.
September 22, 2024 at 11:28 am #267706I didn’t say Noot is a platoon bat. He can hit lefties fine. But Noot is one guy not two, and we need two, so that means we need one more. Additionally, Noot may be needed in CF if/when we need more O from the slot than Siani can provide, so we actually may need two everyday corners. At least one plus a 4th OF. Burleson is a platoon bat, and also a poor defender, so he needs to be out of the equation. He is in now because we don’t have anything else to hit above the middle of the order. Yes, we can hope Walker gets better at the plate and in the field. That seems to be the current plan, the plan we have lost with two years in a row.
September 22, 2024 at 12:22 pm #267711I think the age factor is a bit overrated. I mentioned in a different thread that Mike Yastrzemski made his MLB debut with the Giants at age 28 and has had a fairly decent career. What matters right now is whether Koperniak could help the big league club. The fact that he didn’t make the majors four years ago is irrelevant to what we need now.
All I’m saying is that for a team with one of the worst offenses in the league you would think they could find room on the 40 man, if not the 26 man, for a guy who has demonstated very clearly that he can hit AAA pitching. If he is a bust at the big league level then move on but why not give the guy a shot?
September 22, 2024 at 1:37 pm #267716I wonder, if the plan doesn’t include looking for a solid everyday corner outfielder from within the system, then what is the plan for improving the outfield? Is there a plan at all? What is the plan for a playable 4th outfielders, for that matter?
A similar case could be made as to 1B, unless Goldy will be back. It seems like there are three in house choices: Herrera, Burleson, Baker. Whichever one they like best should have been playing there every day for at least the last week. It would be interesting to hear what their plan is. If there is a plan.
September 22, 2024 at 4:56 pm #267732
stlcard25ParticipantNoot also put up a .900 OPS in Memphis at age 23, which Koperniak has yet to eclipse.
Noot did that in about a month’s worth of plate appearances. I’m not sure you can really say he would have held that line over an entire season of pitching adjustments and inevitable cold streaks, etc.
September 22, 2024 at 6:55 pm #267737Koperniak just posted .890 OPS in a full season at AAA, so there is no point quibbling over a few points.
It does seem relevant to mention the downward trend of Noot’s OPS+:
2022 124,
2023 114,
2024 105.September 22, 2024 at 7:28 pm #267738
stlcard25ParticipantMemphis won their season finale 8-6 to finish at even .500.
September 23, 2024 at 4:57 am #267749Noot is a very nice platoon ML outfielder. Our team is teeming with platoon players.
September 23, 2024 at 6:17 am #267750Noot can hit righties and lefties. That is the least of the problems. The first layer of the onion is they have 5 guys, Noot, Walker, Siani, Burleson and Donovan and they don’t know who their starting outfield is. Donovan’s IF/OF role further complicates it. Who is the second baseman? Donnie, Saggese, Gorman? Walker and Siani have offense issues. Burleson is a platoon hitter, Walker and Burleson have defense issues. Noot is only OK in CF, but Siani doesn’t provide much offense. Nothing says either Gorman or Saggese can hold down the everyday 2B job so it might come back to Donnie.
If Goldy does not return, then you peel another couple layers off the onion because Burleson and Walker might be in that conversation along with Baker and potentially Herrera and potentially Contreras. So now we have the catcher position involved.
That is what I would call a roster cluster without even getting to bench and backups and depth. Somebody has to decide what to do, and they have to do it quick, because they have to decide who does what so they know who are the extra guys they can deal, and what are the holes they need to fill.
We can’t do another season of dumping a bunch of guys into a blender and pouring out a lineup and defensive alignment every game all season. That hasn’t worked. That doesn’t work. So I have to ask all of you this. Based upon the roster construction and roster management decisions over the last couple years, what reason is there to be optimistic about the chances this turns out well?
September 23, 2024 at 6:29 am #267752The #stlcards system finished 2024 with a Sunday Memphis win, the AAA team’s first .500 or better year since 2018. TCN’s Player of the Day, 2B Cesar Prieto, had 3 hits including a double, 2 RBI and scored 2x. Other standouts: Alfonso Rivas, Chandler Redmond and Nick Raquet.… pic.twitter.com/e9OizuVMyt
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) September 23, 2024
September 23, 2024 at 7:23 am #267755Bling, it’s a rarity, but I agree with all of your points in your last post. This is indeed the crux of the problem. Noot, Arenado, and Winn are really the only 3 starters who check the boxes for “Should they start?” And “Are they for sure starting in the right position?” The entire rest of the offense for next season is a complete question mark. It’s not that our other players are bad. They just aren’t well rounded for the positions they have been playing – which makes them not good.
Burleson is a bad outfielder. He also still swings at a lot of bad balls.
Walker is a bad outfielder. He swings at too many bad pitches.
Siani is a good outfielder, but he’s a terrible hitter.
Contreras is not a good defensive catcher and age may cause him more injuries there.
Gorman is a poor defender at 2B and clearly struggles to hit the ball when he swings.
Donovan is really pretty good anywhere, but we need to get him a permanent home.
September 23, 2024 at 8:07 am #267756There is added intrigue because we don’t really know how the decision making is going to work. Mo will still be on site, but there will be ‘other voices’ being heard. Really? The last other voice being heard got summarily fired. I guess Bloom is insulted from that, but who else is going to open their mouth? Who else would have anything to add? For that matter, we don’t actually know if Bloom will continue to be involved. We assume but don’t know. Mo does not seem like an ‘other voices’ leadership style kind of guy.
September 23, 2024 at 9:15 am #267759Contreras is not a good defensive catcher and age may cause him more injuries there.
Neither of Contreras’ injuries were caused by age. One was caused by taking a bat to his arm, the other by taking a ball to his finger.
September 23, 2024 at 9:17 am #267760
KeepComingBackParticipantI’m waiting until the seasons over to see what they do. If they truly rebuild I will have a lot of interest in it. If it winds up looking the same only different, I have an alternate plan to indulge my fandom. Im not going to spend 2025 waiting for the carcass to die.
September 23, 2024 at 10:44 am #267768I’m not terribly good with statistics (A problem with oldfarthood I guess.) Can somebody please point me to something that confirms “Burleson is a weak defender.” I see that shortcoming frequently tossed around but I can’t detect it with my own eyes.
September 23, 2024 at 11:37 am #267769
stlcard25ParticipantI would say that the eyes of many see that Burleson doesn’t get to as many balls as someone with more speed. He does have a good arm and is decent in catching the ball, though.
On the analytical side, there are three well known methods for determining defensive success of a player. From most to least analytical, they are: Outs Above Average (MLB data based), Ultimate Zone Rating (Fangraphs-Zone based) and Defensive Runs Saved (Baseball Reference, also zone based). I’ll refer to them as OAA, UZR and DRS.
Burleson’s rank amongst those with 500 innings played in the Outfield:
OAA: 109/112
UZR: 110/112
DRS: 98/112So the computers have him anywhere from very bad to one of the few worst outfielders in the majors. That’s why folks consider him a weak defender.
September 23, 2024 at 12:12 pm #267770Ahh. All is clear now. Thanks
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.
