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RS would have been a better evaluator. Lazy of me to use win% which includes pitching. More coffee pal!
ATL averaged 5.8 R/G (1st) and LAD averaged 5.6 R/G (2nd).
ATL: 41 lineups, 80 batting orders.
LAD: 105 lineups, 132 batting orders.TLR and DD utilized the numbers to inform their decisions, but they had the background to do it. Marmol and his staff can’t hold a candle to that, and they are guided by statistics majors and kinesiologists. How is that supposed to work?
His last season here, TLR won a championship (2011).
He used 103 lineups and 126 different batting orders, finishing 5th highest in RS.
Like I said, it’s not the use of statistics to inform decisions, it’s the misuse. Baseball lifers like TLR and DD could do it. Minor league coaching minions and joy stick jockeys dropped into a ML season can’t.
Both 2011 (TLR) and 2022 (Marmol) finished 5th in RS, and they both micro-managed the lineup and batting orders, as the majority of teams do.
What TLR and DD did with their pitching staffs, Marmol and very few can match, but the topic was the lineup.
TLR was devoted to starting his bench any time he could, to the point where he appeared never trying to sweep a team. Up 2 games to none, he emptied the bench.
If consistent lineups is your want, TLR is a bad example.
So, JJ, am I supposed to deduce that TLR, the 2023 Dodgers and the 2023 Orioles were analytics worshippers based on the facts and theories that you and bling have presented?
I think having Edman starting in CF and Winn at SS will reduce a lot of the changing of the lineup. They will still have people getting a day of rest. If Gorman, Noot and Walker take a step up, they won’t be sitting very much. Goldy and Arenado won’t be sitting very much. If Donovan starts 10 games at 2B, 10 games at 3B, 20 games in LF and 100 at DH, he will play in 140 games. A lot of the starts in LF will probably mean Noot plays RF or CF. You can get 155-158 games out of Gorman, Goldy, Arenado, Noot and Walker by them starting at DH some of the time. So Donovan’s and Edman’s versatility enables them to start that many. It would be quite a few different lineups but still be a stable lineup.
Forsch – the only slight difference I see from what you have there is I think Donovan won’t DH nearly as much as 100 games. He’ll play 2B while Gorman is the DH quite a few times since he’s the better defender of the two. If Donovan is the DH then there’s a penalty to move him out of that role and into the field where he may be needed. I see it more as Donovan playing in the field most days and whoever he replaces (or Contreras when Herrera starts) is the DH. That would keep more options open. So I’m expecting Donovan to only have 25-40 starts as the DH.
I think you guys are failing to factor in Carlson’s $2.35 Million vs Donovan’s $800K. The wonks will be tasked with coming up with every possible way to get that 2.35 off the bench and on the field.
How consistent a lineup is, is roster driven Forsch, not analytic.
ATL had lesser injuries to their positional starters, so naturally their “different lineups used” is very low, especially compared to ours. ATL had 8 regulars post over 500 PA’s, we had 4. They had 3 guys post 700+ PA’s, us none.
If the players don’t stay healthy, or are ineffective enough to need an upgrade, there will be lineup and roster changes driving up the “different lineups used”. This is player driven, not analytics driven.
Bling blaming analytics is just shooting the messenger, for confirming what he already knew 🙂
Haha…Injuries? In ’23 the Braves had 5 players in their lineup with over 97 RBI’s and 7 players in their line-up with over 20 HR’s. Five players in their everyday line-up produced a total of 205 HR’s and 551 RBI’s…The only things the Braves injured were the stitching on the baseball and opposing pitchers…
I’ve been trying to figure out what Mo really meant when he said they would be putting off until after the start of the season to make a decision on extending Goldschmidt. Waiting until after the start of the season seems kind of odd. I don’t know if I’ve ever heard of that before. The only thing that comes to mind is that maybe the front office brass want to see first hand how close Saggese and Scott and the organization’s up and coming young pitchers are to being ready. If Scott is ready, then Walker could move to first base. And if Saggese is ready, then Gorman could move to third. The organization could lose about $$60M in payroll for Goldschmidt and Arenado alone over the 2024-2025 offseason plus an additional $20M for not bringing Lynn and Gibson back.
When our four young hitters become everyday players, in the 600 PA range, our everday lineup will gain consistency.
I view a possible 162 different lineups as a badge of honor. It won’t happen due to random matches over a season, but the flexibility and creativeness to win vs a different SP daily, should be an advantage a lineup excels at.
This roster can leadoff Walker, Noot or Donovan. Middle order is 2 thru 7 without a drop off. Good health? Top 10.
It’s called creating runs for good reason. The players create and the analytics report past results. If a room full of wonks can find positive trends, yes, add that too. MLB does.
You guys are starting to catch on to the reality that there will never be a set lineup. There will never be a set anything.
mudville
The organization could lose about $$60M in payroll for Goldschmidt and Arenado alone over the 2024-2025 offseason plus an additional $20M for not bringing Lynn and Gibson back.
We would have arb raises for Donovan, Nootbaar, Gorman, Edman, Carlson, Helsley, Romero, King, and Pallante. That would account for $15M.
Gray goes from $10M to $25M, another $15M. So losing Goldschmidt along doesn’t even account for internal raises on returning players.
Also trading Arenado doesn’t really solve anything, other than freeing up money by creating a hole. He won’t bring anything back in a trade. For his age 34-36 seasons, he would essentially be on a 3yr deal at either $74M or $64M depending on how the Rockies money is accounted for.
trading Arenado doesn’t really solve anything, other than freeing up money by creating a hole.
Theoretically, Gorman moves to third. Then, if Scott is ready by then, Edman moves to 2B. Alternatively, if Saggese is ready he covers 2B. There is also Donovan who could factor in. He doesn’t have to be a UT/DH. Theoretically again, Baker or Burleson could cover 1B. As I had pointed out earlier, both bronze busts could be replaced in house and continues to be true.
mud wrote:
I’ve been trying to figure out what Mo really meant when he said they would be putting off until after the start of the season to make a decision on extending Goldschmidt. Waiting until after the start of the season seems kind of odd. I don’t know if I’ve ever heard of that before.
With all of the ticket sales this Carp signing is going to create there should be plenty of revenue to sign Goldy to an extension. “insert eyeroll”
I think Mo is waiting until the season is underway to make a decision on Goldy, because despite the public optimism, privately he knows that things could go south for this club. If they do and we are 15 games under .500 around the Fourth of July, Goldy will be a prime asset to bring in future talent.
If things are going well and we are in the hunt for the division crown, Goldy gets an extension to take him to retirement in a Redbird uniform. They will be fine over-paying for a couple of seasons if it means a chance in 2024, and Goldy wearing a red jacket in retirement.
Maybe Mo noticed that Goldy’s OPS dropped .170 and was the lowest its ever been since the season he broke in. He has had down seasons but not like that.
jj wrote:
As a FA-to-be, Goldy needs to play at a Q-offer level in his platform season. If STL becomes buyers he’s likey postseason bound. Best case for all.
If they sell, he’s likely traded and can’t be tagged, which helps his free agency. From Paul’s perspective, postseason play may be a priority, while finishing his career.
This could also be Paul not interested in an extension here at this time. “We’re going to wait” is good can-kicking PR, if you’ve been snubbed.
nathan wrote:
It’s Goldschmidt that doesn’t want an extension. He wants to go out and get some real money from a team that has a chance to win the WS. He knows that will never happen in St. Louis.
I have been thinking more about this subject and I still feel it is the Cardinals pulling back on the extension, not Goldy. I am not saying he will take a hometown discount but it just doesn’t seem to be his personality to demand every last dollar or hit the road. This is a guy who refused to take his regular number 44 jersey because it was being used by Luke Gregerson (of all people) at the time. This is a guy who looks almost embarrased when he hits a HR as he quickly circles the bases with his head down. He is a very modest, humble person. He is the Lou Gehrig of St. Louis. Does he want to play for a winner? Of course, who doesn’t? I just think he truly values the name on the front of the jersey more than the name on the back. At least that is my impression.
It is the Cardinals who signaled that payroll would be higher this year (depending on how you define those things since there are a myriad ways of doing it) and are now looking for pennies under the seat cushions.
gscottar:
The more I think about it, your point of view about extensions is not without merit. Maybe you’re right. He did decline last year, slightly but a decline. Perhaps the Cardinals are waiting to see if he collapses altogether this year.
I do not discount Nathan’s idea that Goldy could be holding out to see if the team is any good. I think he wants another chance to choke in post season.
I think this is a mutual wait and see on Goldschmidt. The Cardinals don’t have to hurry at all. They can see how he plays this season. Because if he looks to be in decline, they have lots of options that might help the team more. There’s the obvious moves of moving the cheaper Baker or Burleson there (or both and having them platoon). They could also move Gorman there and either play Donovan at 2B or move Edman back to 2B next year if Victor Scott is ready. Or, if Herrera does great, they could move Contreras to 1B and have him platoon with Burleson while still occasionally catching. There are just a lot of options if Goldschmidt declines. However, if he looks great, they’ll give him the 3 year extension that he probably desires.
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