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I don’t care if Masyn Winn ever hits over.200 or not. He would be my starter at SS next year. He is by far the best defensive SS we have had since Ozzie.
According to FanGraphs, Winn has been worth -0.6 WAR so far. Over a full year, that would be -3.6 WAR.
Intentional walk to Goldschmidt
Single by Walker
Sac Fly by Palacios
Single by Baker
Sac Fly by Knizner5-2 Cardinals, let’s see if they can hold.
LACF said:
According to FanGraphs, Winn has been worth -0.6 WAR so far. Over a full year, that would be -3.6 WAR.
Small sample size alert. Just based on last night’s game, it improved to -0.5. He is just 21 and is bound to improve. Is anyone not seeing his potential?
Small sample size alert. Just based on last night’s game, it improved to -0.5. He is just 21 and is bound to improve. Is anyone not seeing his potential?
I didn’t say he wasn’t going to improve. I did say that I would not overlook his putrid offense. On a rate basis, he has been the worse than Alec Burleson and Luken Baker this year, and they are defensive liabilities.
Just based on last night’s game, it improved to -0.5.
And just to note, he had been at -0.5 earlier in the week, it went down to -.0.6 after a couple of 0fers. It was two nights in a row that raised him to -0.5, not one single and a walk.
Fair enough. I readily admit that I don’t check Winn’s WAR daily. I think he will be fine and I am glad he is playing every day and gaining experience in garbage time. He is 21 years old. Baker is 26 and Burleson is 24 and both are bat-first players for sure. A lot of growth could remain ahead for Winn.
P.S. FWIW, Winn’s bWAR is -0.3 vs. FG at -0.5. Different formulas…
The mitt is undoubtedly very good and the right arm may be the best I’ve seen since Dunston or Larkin and the best in a Cardinal uniform since Furcal. But those three guys could hit. Winn hasn’t shown the ability to swing the bat and we won’t know if he’s capable of doing so until well into next season. Maybe he just needs to add another multi-colored beaded necklace prior to standing in…
I recognize Winn is 21 years old.
But if I was the Cardinals, I would not have him penciled in as my starting shortstop on opening day.
The Cardinals would be negligent if they didn’t at least bring in a veteran shortstop to back up Tommy Edman this offseason, while they give Winn time to advance at the plate in AAA.
Winn had a long hot stretch with the bat at Triple-A before coming up. Whether he sticks as the starter next season is TBD. My view is that as long as they have Edman and are comfortable with Noot in CF, getting a veteran SS is less important. They are loaded with second basemen so Edman isn’t needed there. Of course, trades could change everything.
Everybody says Winn is great defensively. I am not great at looking up defense related stuff, so what is Winn’s defensive WAR as of now?
I think they need a backup SS because I think you need two players capable of manning every position competently.
What happens if Tommy Edman gets injured in April or May?
That is why, in addition to fixing the rotation and bullpen, I think they need to bring in a backup SS.
Everybody says Winn is great defensively. I am not great at looking up defense related stuff, so what is Winn’s defensive WAR as of now?
Statcast Outs Above Average has Winn at -1 OAA, with a 71% success rate versus an estimated success rate of 72%.
For comparison, Paul DeJong was at 9 OAA, with a 78% success rate versus an estimated success rate of 75%.
Tommy Edman is at 4 OAA, with a 79% success rate versus an estimated success rate of 76%.
Dansby Swanson leads with 19 OAA, while Trever Story has the highest success rate at 82% versus an estimated success rate of 77%.
I prefer to look at success rates than OAA, which is a counting statistic.
Fangraphs has the following ratings on UZR/150:
Paul DeJong: 0.7 (909.2 innings)
Tommy Edman: 1.1 (396.2 innings)
Masyn Winn: -4.8 (258.0 innings)Major league leaders:
Ossleivis Basabe: 27.7 (156.0 innings)
Gunnar Henderson: 13.3 (560.2 innings)Bling, you don’t really need D metrics for players you see regularly, and my eyes do enjoy watching Winn play SS.
Winns D reminds me of a young Furcal. Cannon, range, hands…. but Winn also glides very well. Very quite head that produces very accurate throws. Very smooth with power.
Furcal was a little choppier. I’ll give Winn a Furcal+ ranking, on his debut D.
Thanks LA. Looking at that in isolaion, not considering the bat, am I correct to say that the 71% is an OK starting point for an everyday SS just hitting the ground in MLB, but we would want to see it bumping up as he goes along, especially if the bat lags?
JJ, you might find that you like metrics more when they jive with what your eye test says than when they don’t. I’m the same way.
I had noticed that the big metrics spouters, here and elsewhere, will mention Walkers defensive metrics, which align with the narrative that he is a poor defender, but never any mention of Winn’s, so I wondered if maybe his don’t align with his narrative so well.
The issue I have now is I pulled the plug on cable so I am not seeing Winn play. I feel like one of Mo’s wonks, staring at a bunch of numbers and pretending like that tells me everything there is to know.
LA provided some numbers above, but I am hopeing for some help interpreting it. My take is the numbers are OK, especially for a noob, but not elite at this point.
Ya I scanned it but the sample is so early… D metrics take seasons to avoid extrapolating.
We added two good arms in Willson and Masyn to the infield, which I like since we lost Yadi’s arm.
Early on, the metrics say Winn is below average – and clearly below both DeJong and Edman.
To jj’s point, they do recommend looking at defensive metrics over several years.
But heading into 2024, if the Cardinals want to try to compete, they should absolutely acquire a more polished SS to back up Edman.
jj – do you think your eye test might have something to do with confirmation bias?
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