2023 Lineup

Viewing 25 posts - 101 through 125 (of 127 total)
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  • #213181
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    My understanding is very different from yours, bb. What I had heard is that until this past winter, DeJong had been highly resistant to coaching recommendations to adjust his swing. However, if you’ve read anything that documents how he was supposedly “ruined by the polo shirt crowd”, please share it. If not, maybe you should tone down the accusations.

    It seems that when one is swinging the “analytics are evil” hammer, everything looks like a nail…

    #213183
    bccran
    Participant

    IMHO the problem has been more mental than physical. He simply looked beat walking up to the plate, assuming he was going to fail again.

    #213184
    ZTR
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    I think DeJong is done. He will probably flash just enough to fool the Cardinals into thinking he’s going to be better and then go back into the tank.

    If Carpenter had stayed with the Cardinals I don’t think he would have improved. I think it took a change of scenery and the shock of being cut loose to allow him to really make the changes and adjustments necessary to get better.

    #213185
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    For me, the jury is still out on Carpenter. He didn’t play well enough early last season in the minors to convince the 25 games under .500 Rangers to promote him. Instead they released him. He went to New York, played well in roughly 150 at-bats, then got hurt. When he came back for the playoffs, he was awful. The Yankees didn’t try to re-sign him so he went to San Diego.

    Reminiscent of Luke Voit’s slide downward that has him on a minor league deal this spring with the Brewers after he went from New York to San Diego to Washington to looking for a job.

    #213189
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Some really good points made here.
    bcc:
    IMHO the problem has been more mental than physical. He simply looked beat walking up to the plate, assuming he was going to fail again.

    That was exactly what I thought last season about DeJong’s ABs Body language = F-…. and pitchers and catchers pick up on that sort of stuff. It seemed that Yadi was always checking the batter’s stroll to the plate.

    ZTR:
    If Carpenter had stayed with the Cardinals I don’t think he would have improved. I think it took a change of scenery and the shock of being cut loose to allow him to really make the changes and adjustments necessary to get better.

    That is so true. The thing is that whoever is in that situation The player is usually at the very bottom , value-wise. and the FO may be thinking about their reputation if the player suddenly turns around in a plus positive way. Fans remember those moves.(ala the 1000s of comments here alone). The reverse of that (picking up guys that all of a sudden are terrible) you all know the usual suspects. (Even more comments).

    Naturally the FO can’t win all of the time and the blame game starts up immediately. Its mostly a crap shot IMO.

    #213191
    Euro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    IMHO the problem has been more mental than physical.

    Very true I think. PDJ is very analytical by nature. He said he has over-analyzed things mentally because of how you are measured and realized he needs a better balance of trusting his athletic and competitive side.

    #213193
    gscottar
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    There is no doubt the mental aspect weighed heavily on PDJ. Any human is going to suffer mentally by having 3 k’s per game at the plate. I am not saying we will see a revival this year but I think it makes sense that he is trying the new swing with his left foot planted on the ground. That leg kick that he had developed was causing a wild and early swing giving him zero chance to hit the low and away breaking ball then getting busted with the high and tight fastball. This new swing he has developed can’t be any worse.

    #213195
    1toughdominican
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    No question that DeJong reached a phase in which he suffered from extreme self doubt and lack of mental confidence. At one point last season when he was entirely lost in the hitter’s abyss, so to speak, his gait and overall body language during the short stroll to the batter’s box for a PA took on the look of what could well be described as that of a man who was blind-folded and being led to face a firing squad. If someone would have handed him a cigarette, the scenario would have been utterly complete.

    #213205
    blingboy
    Participant

    There is reason to hope. The new guy Turner Ward actually played pro ball, unlike the old guy Albert, whose qualification for the job was a degree in Kinesiology, which he had pedaled in various coaching jobs before becoming the Cards’ hitting coach. As to Ward, I count 16 years in pro ball as a player, including about 10 in MLB. He works for Mo and Ollie, and he worked for Albert, so he clearly knows the science and is all in, but he should be better equipped to translate it into actionable input that a player can digest. We had other guys besides PDJ with weak seasons at the plate, O’Neill, Carlson, Gorman, Knizner, Herrera and Burleson. It would be great to see them all step it up.

    #222282
    gscottar
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    #222581
    jj-cf-stl
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    There has been plenty of discussion about moving Goldschmidt to the three spot in the batting order, and much of it seems to be prompted by his 9 solo HR’s of his 10 total this season. That’s an unusual ratio for any batter, and especially for someone who can post MVP type seasons regularly.

    A quick assumption would question where his base runners are, when he homers. Fair point, but is this just a one-third of a season anomoly? Or, is Paul in a batting order position that limits his rbi potential?

    Paul has batted in both the 2 and 3 spots this season, 155 PA’s batting 2nd, and 85 PA’s batting 3rd. He has accumulated 9 HR’s in the 2 spot, and 1 in the 3 spot, another unusual ratio, 9 in 155 vs 1 in 85.

    So for the season, Paul has 240 PA’s, with 143 actual runners on base, with mlb avg being 146 base runners in 240 PA’s. If you will, Paul has had an average amount of baserunners.

    The mlb average RBI amount for 240 PA’s is 28 rbi, Paul is at 26 rbi. He just ever so slightly under on base runners and rbi, from mlb average.

    But enough about mlb average, other than establishing a baseline, this is Paul Goldschmidt, the reigning NL MVP, of course we would like to see more rbi.

    During Paul’s 240 PA’s, 135 PA’s have been with bases empty where he has tallied 9 HR’s, and 105 PA’s have been with runners on and his one HR. Again, the unusual ratio, this time during rbi opportunities, 9 for 135 vs 1 for 105.

    During bases empty this season Paul has posted a 1.082 ops for a 202 ops+. With runners on, a .722 ops for a 94 ops+. Again, another unusual ratio, 202 vs 94.

    I don’t see a batting order position shortage of base runners, especially since he’s already taken 35% of his PA’s batting third as is being suggested. I prefer to acknowledge a small sample size, unusual ratio of ineffectiveness with runners on, that should normalize over the season without a change of batting order positions.

    #222584
    1toughdominican
    Participant

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    That’s a detailed look that leads me to put forth a question. Who, in your view, on this season’s roster is better suited to be placed in the 3 slot than Goldschmidt? I only ask because I can’t come up with another name that I believe is even close to a better option. And if you think that place in the order should be fluid dependent on circumstances, I’d say that’s an entirely reasonable approach. A lot of teams do it. But if you were limited to placing 1 player on this roster in the 3 slot for say, 75% of the regular season, who would that player be? You already know who my choice would be. At any rate, the numbers you included in your comment provide a close look.

    #222589
    gscottar
    Participant

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    Goldschmidt makes sense at number 3 but it is obvious to me that the reason he is hitting second is because Marmol prefers to have the RH and LH hitters split up. Whether he came up with that plan or the spreadsheet bosses did I couldn’t tell you.

    #222591
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    1td, the current lineup is fine with me because Paul’s “with runners on” will improve.
    If Paul has to bat third, I’d just put Donovan or Edman at leadoff, and push everyone back one spot.

    #222592
    1toughdominican
    Participant

    Free

    Those first 3 were what I would have liked to have seen in the ’22 NLWC, jj. Eddie, Donnie, Goldy, Nado and you know who, but he switched it up for both games.

    #222595
    gscottar
    Participant

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    If Paul has to bat third, I’d just put Donovan or Edman at leadoff, and push everyone back one spot.

    So do you mean:

    Donovan/Edman
    Noot
    Goldy
    Gorman
    Arenado

    Pushing Arenado down to 5th might cause consternation among the fans also.

    #222599
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Yes GS, if I had to bat Paul 3rd, but, “the current lineup is fine with me”.

    There are a multitude of tweeks possible. Goldy with more base runners? Flip Goldy and Nado. Arenado is +29 base runners above avg for his PA’s, and hitting 2nd may light him up. Two birds, one stone.

    #222760
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

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    Following the discussion of RBI and baserunners, here are the totals thru Memorial Day.

    Top 10 “base runners on” during PA’s:
    (followed by RBI% of base runners drove in)

    166 Arenado (15.66%)
    143 Goldschmidt (11.19%)
    138 Contreras (14.49%)
    137 Gorman (19.71%)
    121 Edman (12.40%)
    097 Nootbaar (17.53%)
    097 Donovan (8.25%)
    074 DeJong (13.51%)
    072 Burleson (13.89%)
    071 Carlson (14.08%)

    RBI% formula:
    100 x (RBI – HR) / runners on
    Baseball Musings

    Sorted by RBI%:
    19.71 Gorman
    17.53 Nootbaar

    15.66 Arenado
    14.49 Contreras
    14.08 Carlson
    13.89 Burleson
    13.51 DeJong

    12.40 Edman
    11.19 Goldschmidt
    08.25 Donovan

    #222790
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I wonder what MLB average is for % base runners driven in?

    #222819
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Musings doesn’t sum up the columns, I just don’t know.

    #222821
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The 5 highest everyday players with at least 100 baserunners, are in the 25% & 26% range. Then at 10% and lower it tapers off fast.

    My guess is in the 15% – 17% range for average. Just spitballing.

    #222823
    Jnevel
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    JJ – I appreciate the info you provided on Goldyand others. I was pretty certain when I said yesterday that he had not hit well with runners on base this year, but I didn’t look up the data to prove it. This shows that pretty clearly. He’s had lots of chances with guys on base. He just isn’t hitting his Home Runs then.
    It is likely to even out over time though. But in the meantime, hitting him 3rd really would make little difference. It’s just one spot in the order.

    #222830
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Over the last 7 days, 5 of our regular starters have an ops+ of 48 or below.

    Right now it’s probably tempting to shake up the batting order. I’d prefer hands off, until the lineup returns to their norm.

    #226175
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    PA’s / player / June ops+ / 2023 ops+

    103 / Goldy / 110 / 139
    102 / Donovan / 134 / 109
    94 / Arenado / 160 / 119
    91 / Edman / 54 / 91
    88 / PDJ / 92 / 103
    82 / Walker / 168 / 127
    77 / Contreras / 98 / 84
    76 / Gorman / 22 / 112

    55 / Carlson / 156 / 92
    29 / Noot / 19 / 105
    27 / Burleson / 26 / 80
    23 / Kiz / 21 / 80

    June saw 8 players with at least 76 PA’s, along with Carlson and Noot returning from the IL, and Burly / Knizner with bench player PA’s.

    Of the 8 June regulars, Walker ranked first in ops+ and 6th in PA’s. Arenado and Donovan also played above their season ops+, and Gorman and Edman well below their season totals.

    PDJ has a season ops+ of 103, Noot is at 105 and Donovan at 109. All three are good defensively. PDJ does have trade value.

    Carlson had a nice 156 June ops+ in limited PA’s, which we hope turns into a strong July.

    Contreras June 98 and Kiz at 21 brings both catchers season ops+ in the 80’s. MLB avg ops+ for a catcher is 87 vs all other positions.

    Walker started the season with a 3/20 BB/K, and that was my knock on him, the inability to work the strike zone, after showing very similar results during ST.
    In June his BB/K was 10/15, a major step forward.

    #226259
    Jnevel
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Thanks for all the info here JJ. I knew Arenado and Walker each had a great month but they were both even better than I would have guessed. Gorman seems to be heating up again. And I think Noot was just him coming back. We may see a really good July from the offense. I’m not as confident on the pitching. But Montgomery is humming and Flaherty looked fantastic in his last outing. Wainwright though . . .

Viewing 25 posts - 101 through 125 (of 127 total)
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