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My understanding is very different from yours, bb. What I had heard is that until this past winter, DeJong had been highly resistant to coaching recommendations to adjust his swing. However, if you’ve read anything that documents how he was supposedly “ruined by the polo shirt crowd”, please share it. If not, maybe you should tone down the accusations.
It seems that when one is swinging the “analytics are evil” hammer, everything looks like a nail…
IMHO the problem has been more mental than physical. He simply looked beat walking up to the plate, assuming he was going to fail again.
I think DeJong is done. He will probably flash just enough to fool the Cardinals into thinking he’s going to be better and then go back into the tank.
If Carpenter had stayed with the Cardinals I don’t think he would have improved. I think it took a change of scenery and the shock of being cut loose to allow him to really make the changes and adjustments necessary to get better.
For me, the jury is still out on Carpenter. He didn’t play well enough early last season in the minors to convince the 25 games under .500 Rangers to promote him. Instead they released him. He went to New York, played well in roughly 150 at-bats, then got hurt. When he came back for the playoffs, he was awful. The Yankees didn’t try to re-sign him so he went to San Diego.
Reminiscent of Luke Voit’s slide downward that has him on a minor league deal this spring with the Brewers after he went from New York to San Diego to Washington to looking for a job.
Some really good points made here.
bcc:
IMHO the problem has been more mental than physical. He simply looked beat walking up to the plate, assuming he was going to fail again.That was exactly what I thought last season about DeJong’s ABs Body language = F-…. and pitchers and catchers pick up on that sort of stuff. It seemed that Yadi was always checking the batter’s stroll to the plate.
ZTR:
If Carpenter had stayed with the Cardinals I don’t think he would have improved. I think it took a change of scenery and the shock of being cut loose to allow him to really make the changes and adjustments necessary to get better.That is so true. The thing is that whoever is in that situation The player is usually at the very bottom , value-wise. and the FO may be thinking about their reputation if the player suddenly turns around in a plus positive way. Fans remember those moves.(ala the 1000s of comments here alone). The reverse of that (picking up guys that all of a sudden are terrible) you all know the usual suspects. (Even more comments).
Naturally the FO can’t win all of the time and the blame game starts up immediately. Its mostly a crap shot IMO.
IMHO the problem has been more mental than physical.
Very true I think. PDJ is very analytical by nature. He said he has over-analyzed things mentally because of how you are measured and realized he needs a better balance of trusting his athletic and competitive side.
There is no doubt the mental aspect weighed heavily on PDJ. Any human is going to suffer mentally by having 3 k’s per game at the plate. I am not saying we will see a revival this year but I think it makes sense that he is trying the new swing with his left foot planted on the ground. That leg kick that he had developed was causing a wild and early swing giving him zero chance to hit the low and away breaking ball then getting busted with the high and tight fastball. This new swing he has developed can’t be any worse.
No question that DeJong reached a phase in which he suffered from extreme self doubt and lack of mental confidence. At one point last season when he was entirely lost in the hitter’s abyss, so to speak, his gait and overall body language during the short stroll to the batter’s box for a PA took on the look of what could well be described as that of a man who was blind-folded and being led to face a firing squad. If someone would have handed him a cigarette, the scenario would have been utterly complete.
There is reason to hope. The new guy Turner Ward actually played pro ball, unlike the old guy Albert, whose qualification for the job was a degree in Kinesiology, which he had pedaled in various coaching jobs before becoming the Cards’ hitting coach. As to Ward, I count 16 years in pro ball as a player, including about 10 in MLB. He works for Mo and Ollie, and he worked for Albert, so he clearly knows the science and is all in, but he should be better equipped to translate it into actionable input that a player can digest. We had other guys besides PDJ with weak seasons at the plate, O’Neill, Carlson, Gorman, Knizner, Herrera and Burleson. It would be great to see them all step it up.
The Cardinals’ Offense Has Improved
The Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the league and one of the best we’ve seen in St. Louis in quite a while. https://t.co/wK3BkJMheB pic.twitter.com/asOg7nGZpf
— viva el birdos (@vivaelbirdos) May 27, 2023
There has been plenty of discussion about moving Goldschmidt to the three spot in the batting order, and much of it seems to be prompted by his 9 solo HR’s of his 10 total this season. That’s an unusual ratio for any batter, and especially for someone who can post MVP type seasons regularly.
A quick assumption would question where his base runners are, when he homers. Fair point, but is this just a one-third of a season anomoly? Or, is Paul in a batting order position that limits his rbi potential?
Paul has batted in both the 2 and 3 spots this season, 155 PA’s batting 2nd, and 85 PA’s batting 3rd. He has accumulated 9 HR’s in the 2 spot, and 1 in the 3 spot, another unusual ratio, 9 in 155 vs 1 in 85.
So for the season, Paul has 240 PA’s, with 143 actual runners on base, with mlb avg being 146 base runners in 240 PA’s. If you will, Paul has had an average amount of baserunners.
The mlb average RBI amount for 240 PA’s is 28 rbi, Paul is at 26 rbi. He just ever so slightly under on base runners and rbi, from mlb average.
But enough about mlb average, other than establishing a baseline, this is Paul Goldschmidt, the reigning NL MVP, of course we would like to see more rbi.
During Paul’s 240 PA’s, 135 PA’s have been with bases empty where he has tallied 9 HR’s, and 105 PA’s have been with runners on and his one HR. Again, the unusual ratio, this time during rbi opportunities, 9 for 135 vs 1 for 105.
During bases empty this season Paul has posted a 1.082 ops for a 202 ops+. With runners on, a .722 ops for a 94 ops+. Again, another unusual ratio, 202 vs 94.
I don’t see a batting order position shortage of base runners, especially since he’s already taken 35% of his PA’s batting third as is being suggested. I prefer to acknowledge a small sample size, unusual ratio of ineffectiveness with runners on, that should normalize over the season without a change of batting order positions.
That’s a detailed look that leads me to put forth a question. Who, in your view, on this season’s roster is better suited to be placed in the 3 slot than Goldschmidt? I only ask because I can’t come up with another name that I believe is even close to a better option. And if you think that place in the order should be fluid dependent on circumstances, I’d say that’s an entirely reasonable approach. A lot of teams do it. But if you were limited to placing 1 player on this roster in the 3 slot for say, 75% of the regular season, who would that player be? You already know who my choice would be. At any rate, the numbers you included in your comment provide a close look.
Goldschmidt makes sense at number 3 but it is obvious to me that the reason he is hitting second is because Marmol prefers to have the RH and LH hitters split up. Whether he came up with that plan or the spreadsheet bosses did I couldn’t tell you.
1td, the current lineup is fine with me because Paul’s “with runners on” will improve.
If Paul has to bat third, I’d just put Donovan or Edman at leadoff, and push everyone back one spot.Those first 3 were what I would have liked to have seen in the ’22 NLWC, jj. Eddie, Donnie, Goldy, Nado and you know who, but he switched it up for both games.
If Paul has to bat third, I’d just put Donovan or Edman at leadoff, and push everyone back one spot.
So do you mean:
Donovan/Edman
Noot
Goldy
Gorman
ArenadoPushing Arenado down to 5th might cause consternation among the fans also.
Yes GS, if I had to bat Paul 3rd, but, “the current lineup is fine with me”.
There are a multitude of tweeks possible. Goldy with more base runners? Flip Goldy and Nado. Arenado is +29 base runners above avg for his PA’s, and hitting 2nd may light him up. Two birds, one stone.
Following the discussion of RBI and baserunners, here are the totals thru Memorial Day.
Top 10 “base runners on” during PA’s:
(followed by RBI% of base runners drove in)166 Arenado (15.66%)
143 Goldschmidt (11.19%)
138 Contreras (14.49%)
137 Gorman (19.71%)
121 Edman (12.40%)
097 Nootbaar (17.53%)
097 Donovan (8.25%)
074 DeJong (13.51%)
072 Burleson (13.89%)
071 Carlson (14.08%)RBI% formula:
100 x (RBI – HR) / runners on
Baseball MusingsSorted by RBI%:
19.71 Gorman
17.53 Nootbaar15.66 Arenado
14.49 Contreras
14.08 Carlson
13.89 Burleson
13.51 DeJong12.40 Edman
11.19 Goldschmidt
08.25 DonovanThe 5 highest everyday players with at least 100 baserunners, are in the 25% & 26% range. Then at 10% and lower it tapers off fast.
My guess is in the 15% – 17% range for average. Just spitballing.
JJ – I appreciate the info you provided on Goldyand others. I was pretty certain when I said yesterday that he had not hit well with runners on base this year, but I didn’t look up the data to prove it. This shows that pretty clearly. He’s had lots of chances with guys on base. He just isn’t hitting his Home Runs then.
It is likely to even out over time though. But in the meantime, hitting him 3rd really would make little difference. It’s just one spot in the order.Over the last 7 days, 5 of our regular starters have an ops+ of 48 or below.
Right now it’s probably tempting to shake up the batting order. I’d prefer hands off, until the lineup returns to their norm.
PA’s / player / June ops+ / 2023 ops+
103 / Goldy / 110 / 139
102 / Donovan / 134 / 109
94 / Arenado / 160 / 119
91 / Edman / 54 / 91
88 / PDJ / 92 / 103
82 / Walker / 168 / 127
77 / Contreras / 98 / 84
76 / Gorman / 22 / 11255 / Carlson / 156 / 92
29 / Noot / 19 / 105
27 / Burleson / 26 / 80
23 / Kiz / 21 / 80June saw 8 players with at least 76 PA’s, along with Carlson and Noot returning from the IL, and Burly / Knizner with bench player PA’s.
Of the 8 June regulars, Walker ranked first in ops+ and 6th in PA’s. Arenado and Donovan also played above their season ops+, and Gorman and Edman well below their season totals.
PDJ has a season ops+ of 103, Noot is at 105 and Donovan at 109. All three are good defensively. PDJ does have trade value.
Carlson had a nice 156 June ops+ in limited PA’s, which we hope turns into a strong July.
Contreras June 98 and Kiz at 21 brings both catchers season ops+ in the 80’s. MLB avg ops+ for a catcher is 87 vs all other positions.
Walker started the season with a 3/20 BB/K, and that was my knock on him, the inability to work the strike zone, after showing very similar results during ST.
In June his BB/K was 10/15, a major step forward.Thanks for all the info here JJ. I knew Arenado and Walker each had a great month but they were both even better than I would have guessed. Gorman seems to be heating up again. And I think Noot was just him coming back. We may see a really good July from the offense. I’m not as confident on the pitching. But Montgomery is humming and Flaherty looked fantastic in his last outing. Wainwright though . . .
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