Home › The Cardinal Nation Forums › Open Forum › 2021 Bullpen
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December 27, 2020 at 6:59 am #150507bccranParticipant
As 25 said, trading one or two from a group of Gant, Ponce, Woodford, Roberts, Rondon, Fernandez, Whitley, Helsley, Elledge, Locey, Pallante, etc. for a good outfield bat isn’t going to destroy your depth. Classify Flaherty, Hudson, Reyes, Libby, Cabrera, Oviedo, and Thompson as untouchables.
December 27, 2020 at 11:10 am #150522It is going to take more than two of the backend pitchers on the roster to acquire a “good outfield bat”. You get in return what you give up.
Fans (not you specifically) often think that other teams will jump on giving up one of their good players for multiple less-promising ones from the team they follow. Fans almost always overvalue their own team’s prospects. If only it was that easy to trade…
Other teams have their similar list of untouchables that include precisely the “good outfield bat” you want. Otherwise, if he wasn’t highly valued by his current team, you wouldn’t want him…
December 27, 2020 at 12:20 pm #150529If Brebbia was not ready until, say, August 1rst, then the Cardinals would have been paying him for 4 months that he wasn’t producing anything
That is assuming the season starts on April 1. Fat chance that happens.
December 27, 2020 at 12:42 pm #150533bccranParticipantWell, Brian, the Cardinals brought in perennial All Star Paul Goldschmidt for Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, and Andy Young.
Weaver wasn’t considered a top of the order pitcher by any means, and he was coming off a season of 7-11, with a 4.95 ERA and 1.495 WHIP. Some thought Kelly could become a good MLB catcher. Some didn’t. In his short time in 3 seasons with the Cards he had OPS stats of .445, .457, and .319.So I guess none of us know what kind of trade Mo may be able to pull off this off season.
December 27, 2020 at 3:22 pm #150542Not hardly. Weaver (ex-first-rounder) and Kelly (ex-second-rounder) were both consensus national top 100 prospects.
For reference, the Cardinals’ only current national top 100 prospects are “untouchables” Carlson, Liberatore and Gorman.
December 27, 2020 at 5:25 pm #150548The simulator had the trade AT THAT TIME as 52.6mil value for 52.8mil. That’s a pretty impressive demonstration of a equal value trade. Values also include the Comp B pick STL sent, and Goldschmidts’ future Q-offer pick, as a FA-to-be.
December 27, 2020 at 5:53 pm #150549bccranParticipantCards have had a number of high picks that didn’t work out.
And being in the Top 100 is great, but guys who have been in the Top 100 sometimes don’t work out either. We have one on our team. He’s had over 1,000 MLB plate appearances now, and his MLB line is .234/.322/.399/.721. Ugh.December 27, 2020 at 6:11 pm #150551Of course, many top picks don’t pan out later, but that isn’t the point, is it?
The point is the need to give up players perceived to be of high value AT THE TIME of the trade.
Hindsight is always 20-20.
P.S. Another off-target swipe on your part. Bader was never a consensus top 100 prospect. Though he was no. 100 – in his draft. I think some expect first-round results from a late-third rounder. Only 11 players from that round have even had a cup of coffee in MLB – and one of them is another Cardinal – Jordan Hicks. The only other name-brand player from that round is Brandon Lowe from Tampa Bay…
December 27, 2020 at 10:51 pm #150561bccranParticipantI’m so sorry. I just go to the mlb.com site and check for Top 100 prospects. In 2016, Bader was #83. In 2017 he was #90.
I guess in your View that’s not “consensus”. Again, my apologies. Must be “another off-target swipe” on my part. Gee, this is a fun place to be.April 18, 2021 at 8:15 am #158455Another thread hijacked with Bader hate.
Getting back to the thread topic, 2021 Bullpen.
After 14 games the pen has recorded more outs than the rotation members, and this is after pulling Gant from the pen. Judging by our rotations results so far, Gant to the rotation was absolutely necessary. This is an unsustainable workload for the pen members.
The rotation currently ranks 30th by brWAR (-0.8), the relievers 21st (-0.1).
As a staff we’re 30th in:
RA/G 5.43
ERA 5.34
ERA+ 74April 18, 2021 at 9:23 am #158460bccranParticipantNo “Bader hate”. Just reality about one of our outfielders. The same reality can be applied to most of our unproven outfielders.
April 18, 2021 at 12:35 pm #158476JJ, you are correct in that this is completely unsustainable. I mentioned in yesterday’s game thread that we might need to go with 16 pitchers and 10 position players. I don’t think I was exaggerating by much. Our bullpen is going to be burned out by May 1 the way we are going.
People can bellyache about our offense all they want but it is the rotation that is holding this team back right now. I feel sorry for our bullpen.
May 27, 2021 at 10:15 am #162522The road to a good bullpen using no outside help https://t.co/FDZnTVUh6x
— viva el birdos (@vivaelbirdos) May 27, 2021
May 27, 2021 at 7:05 pm #162545Our starters are catching a lot of blame on here. I would say the problems are spread fairly equally. Inconsistent bullpen, and starting staff. Inconsistent offense. The problem flairs up when we play good teams. Goes down with the bad teams. Sounds awefully average so far.
May 27, 2021 at 7:13 pm #162548That was then. This is now.
Cardinal Starters: That’s Top 3rd in a lot of categories.
Wins – 3rd
ERA – 7th
Whip – 9th
Avg – 7th
IP – 7th
WHIP – 9thWalks – 2nd —Didn’t say was all good.
May 29, 2021 at 7:48 am #162698Hat-tip to Woodford in game 51, game 2 vs D’Backs. He faced 9 batters and K’d 6, with 0 BB.
33 pitches and 24 were strikes. In the bottom of the 5th he inherited runners at 2B and 3B, with 1 out and K’d Ahmed and LoCastro to strand both runners.In somewhat of a piggy back role with Oviedo, starting in Mikolas rotation spot last time through, Oviedo and Woodford combined for 7 IP and 2 ER, with Woodford being credited with the Win. Jake competed very well in the strike zone.
May 29, 2021 at 8:11 am #162703bccranParticipantThey need to try Woodford in the rotation.
May 29, 2021 at 12:51 pm #162722Ponce may have found his role with the club. He has looked better in the pen than in the rotation. One thing I have noticed is his velocity is higher coming out of the pen. He is letting it loose but control is still an issue.
June 1, 2021 at 5:22 pm #162995After one-third of a season it’s time for a bullpen report card. Lets keep it simple and right to the point, shutdowns and meltdowns.
(shutdown / meltdown)
(12/2) Gallegos +10
(10/1) Reyes +9
(10/5) Cabrera +5
(3/1) Ponce +2
(1/0) Woodford +1(1/1) Hicks +0
(0/1) Whitley -1
(0/2) Elledge -2
(4/7) Helsley -3
(0/3) Miller -3
(1/5) Webb -4shutdowns and meltdowns are based on WPA as relievers. Does the ranking seem accurate to you?
fangraphsJune 1, 2021 at 5:30 pm #162997I think Cabrera has been lucky his meltdowns haven’t hurt us and his stat line as much as they could have
Surprised Ponce doesn’t have more meltdowns. Helsley kind of an anomaly to have a shutdown or a meltdown so often it seems
Webb’s only shutdown must’ve been in chicago last Monday
The hard part for this pen is I just don’t see how you fix it internally and the price to fix it externally would probably be quite high
Seems we need to add at least 3 pieces internally or externally. As much as I love Gant’s job in rotation, this is why I would’ve loved to see us get the opportunity to push him back to pen
Our pen is just so lost and having John Gant there would be a big piece
Maybe the fix is a trade for a starter and two pen arms rather than 3 pen arms. It still makes me wonder if the increase in innings after years in pen will hurt Gant late in season whether he’s in rotation or pen
June 1, 2021 at 5:38 pm #162999Unfortunately gscottar, I don’t feel as optimistic as the guys at vivaelbirdos. I hope they know more than me, but my eye test only gives me confidence in 3 guys
June 1, 2021 at 6:41 pm #163002I don’t feel as optimistic as the guys at vivaelbirdos
That article was a waste of pixels.
June 1, 2021 at 7:10 pm #163006I thought this would be our strength coming into the season but I was wrong! I still love the arms but we lead the league in so many bad categories, strike %, hit batsmen, walks, first pitch strikes that something has to change. I don’t think this is going to be fixed externally because we do outside should be done to fix the offense IMO! These guys need to start throwing strikes and since you can’t fire all of them I’m wondering if Maddux may end up being the sacrificial lamb! These guys have great stuff and perhaps a new voice could make a difference! Just watch how few times our relievers are able to throw first pitch strikes, it makes no sense!
June 1, 2021 at 8:02 pm #163009The shutdown / meltdown report card above has 11 players. Hicks is on the 60day IL, so down to 10. Webb and Miller could / should be cut and I wouldn’t even blink, that leaves 8 (a pen).
Reyes and Gallegos we trust, as much as you can trust a reliever 😉
Cabrera (24) has 69 mlb innings to date.
Ponce (29) has 132 mlb IP, he’s actually a vet in our pen.
Woodford (24) has 34 mlb IP.
Helsley (26) has 70 mlb IP.
Elledge (25) has 16.2 mlb IP.
Whitley (26) has 15 mlb IP.My point is that the outfield is not the only place where auditions are being held. We’re inexperienced once you consider relievers like Andrew Miller have 800 mlb IP.
Relievers are probably the easiest deadline acquisition, there’s always that, but I expect the FO to play this bunch to get a clearer idea of what they have up to the deadline.
June 1, 2021 at 10:32 pm #163023Any chance for a Joe Kelly reunion next year?
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