2018 Reg Seas Game #49 – at Bucs – Sat 5/26

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  • #53808
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    3:05 pm Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Jack Flaherty (1-1, 2.31) vs. RHP Trevor Williams (5-2, 3.05) FOX Sports Midwest/KMOX

    #53994
    NJ315
    Participant

    Kelly and Lyons activated. Baron to Triple A…..and Holland to DL (right hip impingement)

    #53995
    NJ315
    Participant

    Carpenter 5
    Martinez 3
    Pham 8
    Ozuna 7
    Gyorko 4
    Fowler 9
    Pena 2
    Munoz 6
    Flaherty 1

    #53997
    gscottar
    Participant

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    I would like to see O’Neill get to play everyday. I think Dexter has been given enough opportunities. He should be relegated to extra OF and pinch hitter at this point.

    Does he really have Carp at 3B and Gyorko at 2B? That is weird. Jedd is the best defensive 3B on the team and Carp has less arm strength than David Eckstein.

    #54000
    NJ315
    Participant

    That’s the way it is right now at MLB At Bat. It could be wrong. They have been wrong before.

    #54001
    Euro Dandy
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    Free

    Ha, so it’s safe to watch the 8th inning now? Cards need to rebound today to get some different attitudes in play.

    #54002
    gscottar
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    The Post Dispatch is reporting the same lineup. That is a real head scratcher from MM.

    #54003
    Euro Dandy
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    Free

    gscottar, Fowler is not leading off, so take some solace in that.

    #54005
    Cardinals27
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    Maybe the players need to imagine the Pirates are wearing Reds uniforms?

    #54008
    PugsleyAddams
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    Or cubbies uni now too, Cardinals27. No way we lose today’s game, as I know the entire lineup except for maybe Munoz, has heard of Trevor Williams. If I’m Pittsburgh, I plan some tomfoolery so to get a distinct advantage today over our boys. Maybe slap a fake beard on Williams….have him talk in a southern drawl…have their PA announcer refer to him as Travis instead of Trevor….have him take about 10 mph off his fastball….that could screw our hitters all up.

    #54010
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Consider it this way. Gyorko is better defensively than Carpenter at both second base and third, but he can’t play both at the same time. So wherever the gap is least, that is the way you go. Personally, I really do not like Carpenter at second, so this is my lesser of evils.

    #54011
    NJ315
    Participant

    I agree say no to Carp at second

    #54013
    Euro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    So wherever the gap is least, that is the way you go.

    The “least gap” is one aspect of it, but it’s a more complex weighted average and statistical distribution issue than that. I wonder if they’re taking into account other aspects such as how many plays are expected at 2B versus 3B, based on Pirates’ hitting tendencies. Being able to switch two defenders like Carp/Jedd brings up a really advanced analytics possibility. That would be to have Carp/Jedd switch positions throughout the game based on which batter is up and the batter’s tendencies to hit left side versus right side. It sounds far-fetched, but much of what is done today with analytics would’ve sounded far-fetched 20 years ago.

    #54018
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    As TLR often said, “They are men, not machines.”

    #54019
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Watching Carp make throws from 3B is like nails on the chalkboard to me. It is gut wrenching. Jedd way better than average at 3B, borderline gold glove material.

    #54020
    Euro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    That is true, but if you take that to the extreme, then you are discounting that there has already been a lot of reshaping men’s minds and attitudes toward how they are used in roles today versus years ago because of evolutionary analytics….which brings to mind another saying…evolve or be extinct.

    #54021
    Bw52
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    Free

    Why the hell is Fowler on the field.O`Neill/Bader should be playing.Fowler EL STINKO SUPREMO.

    #54022
    CardsRedSox4Ever
    Participant

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    Top of first recap…Carp home run, JMart double, JMart base running error, Ozune easy double play. And why exactly is Ozuna batting cleanup with a .643 OPS?

    #54024
    Euro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    Martinez drives in Munoz for a 2-1 lead in the 3rd, but then is thrown out again due to poor base running trying to take 2nd on the throw home.

    #54025
    Cards667
    Participant

    Free

    “Watching Carp make throws from 3B is like nails on the chalkboard to me. It is gut wrenching. Jedd way better than average at 3B, borderline gold glove material.”

    We agree on many things and this is another. Jedd every day at 3B. Jedd is to good at 3B to put him elsewhere. And if you like algebra, Jedd 3B + Carpenter 2B > Jedd 2B + Carpenter 3B

    #54026
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Anyone have any metrics to help support or refute Cards667’s algebra?

    #54027
    Cards667
    Participant

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    I don’t have metrics on it, but it sure seems the defensive skill gap is much larger at 3B than 2B.

    #54029
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    So you said, but metrics can be helpful when there is a difference of opinion. Granted, defensive metrics are imperfect, but they are better than debating whose eye test is more accurate.

    #54030
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Fowler leaves the game in favor of Bader after being hit by a pitch on the outside of his right kneecap.

    #54031
    Euro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    Based on their career UZR/150 numbers (Fan Graphs), here goes.

    Carp: 2B = -6.5 3B = -3.6
    Jedd: 2B = -0.5 3B = 4.0

    Jedd 2B + Carp 3B = -4.1
    Carp 2B + Jedd 3B = -2.5

    So this says play Jedd at 3B.

    Also, based on the “gap” discussion above, the gap at 2B is 6 and at 3B it is 7.6.

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