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With 52 games remaining, we’d all like to see the Cards in the playoffs this year, but the W/L record to get there is almost insurmountable. I predict they end up 3rd or 4th in the Div and 2-3 out of the 2nd wild card spot. Here’s their challenge:
With 52 games remaining, they need to go 34-18 (.650) to catch the Cubs (assuming the Cubs go only .500 the rest of the season).
To catch MIL, they need to go 33-19 (.630) assuming MIL goes .500 the rest of the way.
To catch ATL, they need to go 31-21 (.600) assuming ATL plays .500 ball.
If Cubs, MIL, ATL all play the rest of the year at their current pace (.578/.566/.557), the Cards would have to play .710(37-15)/.690(36-16)/.650(34-18) respectively, for their remaining games to catch those teams.
Of course, AZ, LAD, CO, PIT, WAS and SF are all ahead of the Cards in the wild card race, except SF who is .5 games behind. And they all get a vote too.
Good news is if Cards win every remaining series through Sep, they will end up at 89-73, potentially within striking distance of a WC spot.
Please paint a rosier picture if you can, but I’m not seeing one based on the team we have on the field and their performance to date.
My final prediction: 84-78, 3rd or 4th in Div, 2-3 out of the WC race, and that’s probably generous.
As stated, it’s not so much the number of games the Cards are behind. The problem is there are a few teams ahead of them for the second wild card spot, instead of just one team. Chances are one of those teams gets hot and will be difficult to pass.
I just checked playoff odds on Fangraphs and they say the Cards have a 9.5% chance of making the playoffs. That’s approximately half as likely as Dexter Fowler getting a hit during an at bat this year.
They also list the “win World Series” odds as 0.2% (that’s 1 in 500). If the sports gambling odds mirrored that, and if you were willing to throw down a spare $100 bill, that could turn into a $50,000 payoff. Hmmm.
I expect the Cardinals to have a big September. It is just a gut feeling, but I think the roster expansions on September 1 will favor the Cardinals. I contend that their 40 man roster, from 26 to 40 is as strong or stronger than most other teams.
I am not sure how this could be accurately quantified. For one thing, the 40 man roster is constantly in flux. Plus, even if the same 40 players were on the roster all season long, it would still be somewhat arbitrary to assign 15 of the players to the bottom of the roster.
Never-the-less, the Cardinals have gotten a lot of help from their minor league system this year and I expect this to give them an advantage when rosters are expanded.
I would take that bet. $100? Very little risk for a potential huge reward. You never know. But obviously the chances of the Cardinals even getting to the post season are slim, as there are too many other teams in the hunt. If it was just one team to pass, then you feel good about it.
I wonder what the odds were against the Cardinals when they were 6 1/2 out with 12 to go in 1964, with three other teams beside the league-leading Phillies in the hunt? Reds and Giants were close along with the Cards, and Milwaukee still had a shot I believe.
Of course that was the ticket to the Series. Today you have to go through another grueling month of baseball to win the Series.
Standings as of this morning:
Division Leaders:
Chicago 64-46
Philadelphia 62-48
Arizona 62-50Wild Card:
Milwaukee 65-49
Atlanta 59-48LAD 61-51 0.5 GB
Colorado 58-52 2.5 GB
Pittsburgh 57-54 4.0 GB
St. Louis 57-54 4.0 GB
Washington 56-54 4.5 GB
SF 56-56 5.5 GBFor the remainder of the season, we play 3 games against Miami, 3 games against the Royals, 3 games against Detroit, 3 games against the Reds and the other 39 games are against those 10 teams with the exception of Philadelphia and Arizona. Only 3 games remain with the Cubs. Therefore, the Cardinals control their own road to the playoffs. They have to keep winning series.
Yes the Cards control their destiny, but they have to suddenly transform from a team that has won approximately half their games to a team that wins two thirds of the rest of their games. That’s what it takes to get to 91 wins. That’s winning at the same pace as a full season 108-win team. Would 91 wins get it done? It would if all the teams currently ahead of them for the wild card stay at their current win percentages, but it would not if one of them (or a team close behind like the Nats) also gets hot. It’s going to be a steep climb, but like forsch said, they have to keep winning each series — and for every series they don’t win, they need to probably offset that with a sweep.
EuroWolf, you are correct – they may play better the rest of the way, but they’d have to play with a winning percentage near .650 to be competitive for a WC spot. Possible, yes, probable, no.
A lot of teams can play 10+ games over .500 for a month or two. Just look at the Rockies and Pirates, our last two foes. I believe both were around 19-6 games over in a span of 25 games, and that can really transform a team’s outlook. If the Cards could get to that point, anything could happen.
The main point being, most every team controls their own destiny up until September or so if they’re over .500. The Cards will have to play better than they have…but they also have some hitting talent and definitely the pitching to have a nice run in them. It’s up to then to do it.
Mozeliak should be watching the Cards elimination number. When the Cards are finally eliminated from the post-season, the next day he is gone.
Mozeliak should be watching the Cards elimination number. When the Cards are finally eliminated from the post-season, the next day he is gone.
Now that’s a bet I would take. Mo is not going anywhere no matter the playoff picture.
Standings as of this morning:
Division Leaders:
Chicago 67-49 (3-3 last week)
Philadelphia 65-51 (3-3 last week)
Arizona 64-54 (2-4 last week)
LAD 64-54 (3-3 last week)Wild Card:
Milwaukee 67-53 (2-4 last week)
Atlanta 63-51 (4-3 last week)LAD 1.0 GB
Arizona 1.0 GB
Colorado 62-55 2.5 GB (4-3 last week)
St. Louis 62-55 2.5 GB (5-1 last week)
Pittsburgh 61-57 4.0 GB (4-3 last week)
Washington 60-57 4.5 GB (4-3 last week)
SF 58-60 7.0 GB (2-4 last week)The Dodgers-Diamondbacks losers slipped a 1/2 game further back in the Wild Card standings this week. The Rockies, Pirates and Nationals had no change in the last week. The Cardinals gained 1.5 games for the the Wild Card. The Giants slipped another 1.5 games behind in the Wild Card over the past week. The Giants are actually closer to winning their division than they are to winning a Wild Card spot.
For the remainder of the season, we play 1 game against the Royals, 3 games against Detroit, 3 games against the Reds and the other 38 games are against those 10 teams with the exception of Philadelphia and Arizona. Only 3 games remain with the Cubs.
Fangraphs has their playoff chances at 25.4%.
Just saw a graphic on the game telecast. The Cubs have the easiest schedule in the NL the rest of the way at .496 opponents record. The Cards is the hardest at .515. I think it said Brewers are fifth-toughest, but I am not sure about that.
The team needed some new faces. The bullpen was overhauled and Wisdom-AGarcia are brand new in St Louis. There was to much old clutter that Mozeliak brought in and then had to get rid of. Card’s staff an fans have to be feeling a lot better about the team now. Carpenter has put this team on his back and the odds of making the play-offs get better nearly every day.
It’s still going to take an awful lot of hard play and luck to play in October. But at least there is some excitement now and it will be a better off-season with the light at the end of the tunnel shining. The search for a permanent manager will spark some interest.
In the last two weeks, odds for #stlcards to win the World Series have moved from 80/1 to 45/1, per https://t.co/RIikueXxL0.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) August 14, 2018
WC1-Phillies start a 2 game series tonight vs Red Sox, @ philly. (stl 2.0 back)
WC2-Brewers start a 2 game series vs Cubs at chicago. (stl 2.0 back)
We’re 1 game out of the 2nd wild card.
I could see Philly dropping out of it. Dodgers are who I worry about.
Torn on who I want to win the Cubs-Brewers series. I’d love nothing more than to face the Cubs in the WC game and get some payback. IMO
The Dodgers can’t score enough runs to beat their own pen. Much like us the first half.
I’m pulling for Mil (vs Chc) since we have more games vs Mil remaining, and Cubs schedule is easiest by win% of opponents.
Philly has another game vs Red Sox tonight.
The Cards’ odds for catching the Cubs have improved quite a bit over the last two weeks. They now need to go .619 (26-16) for the memaining 42 games to catch the Cubs, provided the Cubs go .500 the rest of the season. But, of course, being only one game out of the 2nd wild card slot means a wild card berth is much more likely, and could very well happen. For the first time in a couple of years, this team seems like they have the confidence to keep winning. Really want to see us get to the Cubs in the post season, either WC or NLDS. It would be epic.
The 4-2 win tonight over the Nats obviously helps playoff chances.
Previously, the hill to climb seemed steep because there were several teams to pass. This winning streak has changed that. Assuming the Cards stay ahead of every team they currently lead in the standings, they need to pass just ONE of the four teams they currently trail (cubs, brewers, braves, phils) to move into a wildcard position. Easier said than done, but they don’t need so much help from other teams now.
I’m sorry but I could never root for the Cubs to win regardless the scenario or playoff implications. No way!
the head to heads will still be the biggest games
we end the season head to head with the Cubs 3 games
we are positioning ourselves for WC but with those 3 games to end the season we still have very real play for the division
Just like the last two “horrible” years we are right there in the mix for a playoff spot and/or the division
I don’t see the difference really in the team, the teams of the last 2 years did exactly what we are seeing this year…they struggle, then right the ship and get an infusion of youth and make a move for the playoffs
i like the way we are playing right now, i like Shildt, but i don’t see how we are suddenly this far greater team than we were the last couple years under different leadership…the team is still playing the same way it has the last couple seasons…only change is that the FO madea managerial change
now…if we can get over the hump THIS year and not just challenge to get in but actually get in, then i can see there being a marked shift in the team’s action and play
2 years ago we were hyping other young arms and bats as the playoffs came into sight…last year too..
Get over the hump and i will admit something fundamentally important has changed…until then i see the same team this year as i did last year…they get some stability in the pen and the lineup and they go streaking…all the way up to the end…
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