photo: Javier Baez (Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports Images)
For many baseball fans, this is not their favorite time of year on the sport’s calendar. Yes, the game’s pinnacle event, the World Series, is in full swing. But really, the fans of the two teams participating care the most by far, with the rest of us paying casual attention at best.
Many followers of the other 28 MLB teams are most anxious for the “hot stove season,” also known as free agent and trade time, to get underway. Since those actions are keyed off the completion of the Fall Classic, I have heard from more than a few fans who hope the Boston Red Sox sweep the Los Angeles Dodgers, just to get the World Series over with sooner.
In this period, void of most real baseball news other than the Series, a few awards, such as Wednesday’s announcement of the Roberto Clemente Award, trickle out. However, the winners of the really big annual awards in the game – MVP’s, Gold Gloves and the like – are not disclosed until November.
In recent years, the sponsors of these November honors have developed an interim process to ramp up attention to their awards – without sharing the winners’ identities – which they misleadingly label as “finalists”.
In reality, all of the ballots have been counted and the winners are known – to them only. But instead of just telling us the results, the sponsors, who are highly motivated to increase public awareness of their brand through repetitive mentions of its name, release the identities of the top three vote-getters several weeks in advance.
On Thursday, Rawlings strung out their 2018 Gold Glove Award “finalist” announcements over a series of 18 timed tweets, one per position per league. And every re-tweet meant their name received another set of impressions. Good for them, but less so for the rest of us.
Now, if these players were actual finalists and the subsequent discussion of their defensive merits could actually influence the decision of which one would win, this process could have real value.
That is not the case, though.
Instead, there are useless arguments over players who may have finished in fourth or fifth, for example, but appear to have been “snubbed” since they do not appear among the top three. And other arguments over which of the “finalists” is more worthy rage on.
Folks, it doesn’t matter.
The reality is that when the winners are announced in a few weeks, no one is going to remember the 36 losing “finalists,” anyway.
Two Cardinals among top three
St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina and second baseman Kolten Wong are among the top three finishers at their respective positions. Rookie center fielder Harrison Bader was not, leading to considerable on-line angst.
By reviewing the most recent update of the SABR Defensive Index (SDI), the analytical component worth 25 percent of the Gold Glove Award scoring, one could see this coming.
Bader was not listed in the August 19 update, perhaps because of a shortage of innings played. But that is just a guess, based on the fact that Bader started in center in just 66 games this season. Another potential factor is that because he did not start all season long, some of the voting managers and coaches, especially in the other divisions, may not have seen him play much at all.
Three of the top four center field scorers in the August 19 SDI comprise the NL “finalists” – all of whom are accomplished defenders. They are Lorenzo Cain, Ender Inciarte and Billy Hamilton.
Molina ranked sixth among catchers in the latest SDI update. Given his reputation and prior Gold Glove success, a strong showing in the voting as well, elevating the eight-time winner into the top three, should not be all that surprising. A win would be, however.
2016 winner Buster Posey joins Molina and Milwaukee’s Manny Piña as the top three NL backstops. Posey and Piña were first and third, respectively, in the August 19 SDI. 2017 honoree Tucker Barnhart of Cincinnati did not finish among the “finalists” this year. Molina’s most recent Gold Glove Award was in 2015.
That leaves Wong.
On August 19, the Cardinal was first among National League second basemen with a 12.3 SDI, just ahead of Colorado’s D.J. LeMahieu at 11.9. In fact, the pair had the top SDIs of all defenders at any position in the league. Given that, one might argue that both are worthy of a Gold Glove.
Where the disconnect occurs is with the third second base “finalist,” Chicago’s Javier Baez. Though the Cub is known for highlight-reel plays, his overall defense according the metrics is not competitive at all. Specifically, Baez’ SDI is 0.0, ninth of 12 NL players at the position formally graded.
So how did Baez finish among the top three?
Well, the most recent SDI released covered games through August 19 only, with the final results withheld until the Gold Glove Award winners are announced on November 4. Further, Wong was slowed by knee and hamstring injuries over the final weeks of the season, which could affect his score.
However, the real explanation has to be that the MLB managers and coaches, whose votes make up the other 75 percent of the scoring, gave Baez a significant enough level of support via their ballots to overcome his zero SDI.
While the managers and coaches are provided statistical information along with their ballots, how or if they use it is unknown. They are also prohibited from voting for players on their team. Other than that, they are on their own.
Another perspective on the comparison was offered by none other than Comcast Chicago. They view Wong as the likely Gold Glove Award winner over Baez – because the latter was not a full-time second baseman, but was more of a utility player.
“…it would be hard to see him (Baez) take home the 2B Gold Glove Award with nearly 200 fewer innings at the position than Wong.”
Stepping back and taking a dose of my own medicine, as long as Baez does not win, no one will care that he was among the top three, anyway.
Looking back at past sins
However, the reason the SDI exists in the first place is that players like Baez received Gold Gloves too often in the past. As defensive metrics were developed and refined, it became clear there was a gap between those who the managers and coaches voted for and the best defenders based on the numbers.
Specifically, here is a summary of data which illustrates that over 60 percent of the Gold Glove Award winners from 1988 through 2012 were not among the top two defenders at their position, according to the metrics.
Like Baez could be this year, for example.
Here is a graph showing how often the @RawlingsSports #GoldGlove went to the best defender (defined as either first or second SDI fielder) from 1988-2012. Average ~38% of the time. You know the names – Palmiero, Jeter, and so on… Enter @sabr SDI… pic.twitter.com/u8COgFhhYB
— Dial of Destiny (@Pfeiffer86) October 25, 2018
So, the SDI was created to give the analytic view a share of the vote. It is a blend of five measures. For those interested in understanding how the sausage is made, click here for additional details on the SABR Defensive Index.
In closing
I do not know if Wong will win or if he should, but I know he was very good. Perhaps LeMahieu will come out on top again, as he did in 2014 and 2017. I don’t see the Rockie enough to have a strong opinion. However, I do know that Baez should not.
But, if Baez somehow takes home the 2018 National League Gold Glove Award for second base, then the percentage weighting assigned to the SDI must be raised in the future.
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
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