photo: Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt (Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports)
The Cardinal Nation’s annual review of the top stories affecting the St. Louis Cardinals during the prior calendar year is back for 2024, its 20th year. The Top Stories of the Year are based on my view of the importance of the key events surrounding the team during the prior 12 months.
Per tradition, I will follow in subsequent articles with my predictions of the top five Cardinals-related stories ahead in 2025 and audit how well I did in attempting to predict 2024’s biggest news items one year ago.
As a refresher, a link to the top stories of each year from 2005 through 2023 and my start-of-year predictions for 2024 can always be found via “STORIES OF THE YEAR”, located on the red bar on the left side of the page, in the list directly underneath the site logo.
Also, join the discussion about this series at The Cardinal Nation’s free forum.
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 Stories of 2024
Many of the top stories of 2024 are about change, which is generally agreed to be necessary. While the Cardinals improved from a 71-win club in 2023 to 83 victories in 2024, they were still a long way from qualifying for October play.
As usual, the number one story reflects the team’s results on the field, but the aftershocks from St. Louis’ second consecutive non-playoff season appear throughout the top 10.
| TCN’s 2024 Cardinals Top 10 Stories | |
| 1 | Veteran Leadership Not the Answer, Either |
| 2 | Goldenado Era Ends with a Whimper |
| 3 | New Focus on Player Development |
| 4 | Major Front Office Changes |
| 5 | Move to Reliance on Youth |
| 6 | Helsley Sets Saves Record |
| 7 | Edman is a World Champion; Fedde is Not |
| 8 | Marmol Extended; Coaches Ward and McGee Replaced |
| 9 | High Hopes for Wetherholt Draft Pick |
| 10 | Ex-Cards Outfielders O’Neill and Carlson on Different Tracks |
- Ex-Cardinals Outfielders O’Neill and Carlson are on Different Tracks
Much has been said and written about the players the St. Louis Cardinals let get away for a minimal return, only for them to experience success elsewhere. Two of the most prominent examples are outfielders Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia.
In the last year, the Cardinals gave up on another pair of outfielders. Rather than high-bonused international signees like the prior duo, Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson were first-round type draft picks. However, only one of the two enjoyed a career boost post-St. Louis.
I say first round “type”, because O’Neill was originally a third-round selection by Seattle, but St. Louis gave up a first rounder (Marco Gonzales) to acquire him. Carlson was indeed a top round addition by St. Louis.
During their six and five partial years with St. Louis, respectively, both outfielders struggled with injury and inconsistency, leading the Cardinals to finally trade them away for minimal return.
O’Neill was the first to go, dealt to the Boston Red Sox last December. The Cardinals’ take was a non-prospect pitcher who posted a 5.61 ERA in Triple-A (Victor Santos) and a big-league reliever who didn’t make it through August before being waived (Nick Robertson).
O’Neill shined in the 2024 Red Sox lineup. Though he missed time due to injury as usual, he played in 113 games, second most in a season in his career. O’Neill blasted 31 home runs and compiled an .847 OPS. As a free agent this fall, he landed a three-year, $49.5 million contract with the contending Baltimore Orioles.
On the other hand, Carlson opened the season on the injured list again, and upon his return, he could never get untracked. It was a major disappointment, as when it became clear that Tommy Edman would not be ready to go, Carlson had been counted on to man center field for St. Louis. That forced two unproven players, Victor Scott and Michael Siani, to try to pick up the slack at a very thin position coming into the year.
By the July trade deadline, Carlson’s OPS was a meager .515 and most felt that a change of scenery would be best for both parties. He was shipped to Tampa Bay for reliever Shawn Armstrong. The right-hander threw just 12 2/3 innings for St. Louis before being waived after just one month with the team.
Carlson’s new team and league were not enough to significantly improve his fortunes and this fall, the Rays non-tendered him (did not offer him a contract for 2025). Carlson is currently a free agent.
- High Hopes for Wetherholt Draft Pick
The ugly 71-win 2023 season put the Cardinals squarely in the 2024 Draft Lottery, from where they received the number seven selection. The club used the pick on University of West Virginia shortstop JJ Wetherholt.
Prior to a nagging hamstring injury this past spring, Wetherholt was considered a strong candidate to go first overall. As a result, the Cardinals were predictably delighted with their selection, who is considered by some to be St. Louis’ second baseman of the future.
The pick is crucial for the organization as seventh overall is St. Louis’ earliest selection in any draft since they took J.D. Drew fifth in 1997.
The Cardinals fared even better in the 2025 Lottery, snaring the fifth overall spot in the upcoming July draft.
- Marmol Extended; Coaches Ward and McGee Replaced
Coming into 2024, manager Oliver Marmol was entering the final year of his initial contract. In a surprise considering the team’s poor performance in 2023, he was given a contract extension during spring training.
Fast forward to the end of a second straight disappointing campaign. With the manager set for two more years, the team decided to make two changes to the coaching staff for 2025.
Hitting coach Turner Ward’s contract was not renewed and coach Willie McGee was reassigned in the organization.
Joining the organization in their places are Brant Brown as hitting coach and former Cardinals outfielder Jon Jay as a coach.
Brown, 53, has held various hitting-related positions with the Mariners, Dodgers, Marlins and Rangers. Jay, 39, played for St. Louis in six of his 12 MLB seasons and was most recently first base and outfield coach under Skip Schumaker with the Miami Marlins.
- Edman is a World Champion; Fedde is Not
One of the Cardinals’ most versatile, well-liked and valuable players in recent seasons was Tommy Edman. Offering quality defense at multiple skill positions including shortstop, second base and center field, the switch-hitter was expected to man center for the 2024 Cardinals.
However, his recovery from a nagging wrist injury and resulting surgery dragged on for nine months. While Edman was finally playing in minor league rehab games in late July, the Cardinals traded him to the Dodgers in a three-way deal that netted St. Louis pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham from the White Sox.
At the time of the trade, Edman was only under team control though 2025, but so was Fedde. St. Louis made the move to try to shore up their starting pitching and bench in the hope the new players would add enough to push the Cardinals into the postseason.
Once again, the plan did not achieve its desired result.
Edman sparked the World Championship-bound Dodgers lineup and drove in a record-tying 11 runs in the National League Championship Series, for which he was named MVP. He subsequently signed a five-year $74 million contract extension that will keep him with Los Angeles through at least 2029. It is a deal that the Cardinals would likely have shied away from.
Fedde was neither terrible with St. Louis nor as good as he had been in Chicago. Unless traded, he is expected to be St. Louis’ number two starter in 2025 after Sonny Gray. If not dealt this winter, the free agent to be could be on the move at the July trade deadline, unless the Cardinals are surprise contenders. The odds of Fedde remaining a Cardinal long term seem low.
Pham was merely a hired hand to try help the poor-performing bench. But when it quickly became clear that he and Fedde were not enough to power the 2024 Cardinals into October, Pham asked to be cut loose. St. Louis placed him on waivers, from where the Royals picked him up.
- Helsley Sets Save Record
29-year-old closer Ryan Helsley was not only the most valuable pitcher on the 2024 Cardinals, but he was also arguably the best reliever in baseball.
His 3.0 bWAR dwarfed all other St. Louis hurlers, with Sonny Gray next at 1.9. Even among position players, only Masyn Winn topped him, with Willson Contreras tied.
Helsley was the Cardinals’ representative in the 2024 All-Star Game. After the season, he was named National League Relief Pitcher of the Year and placed ninth in the NL Cy Young Award vote.
The most eye-catching stat from Helsley’s season is his new team-record and MLB-leading 49 saves in 53 chances.
With one final year under team control before free agency, Helsley would be coveted trade acquisition for a contender, but at least for now, the Cardinals say they plan to keep the Oklahoma native in 2025.
- Move to Reliance on Youth
As revenues dipped with the team fortunes on the field and their television contract fell in value, the Cardinals disclosed plans to cut their big-league player payroll. The new plan for 2025 is to focus on their younger players.
Especially for an organization like St. Louis that stays clear of high-priced free agents, having success with their first-round draft picks is crucial. A typical first rounder’s signing bonus is two-thirds or more of each year’s draft budget.
As noted above, prior top selections Gonzales and Carlson fell short, as have more recent first-round selections Zack Thompson, Dakota Hudson, Delvin Perez, Jake Woodford and Nick Plummer.
Now squarely under the heat of the spotlight are two other first-round selections who initially experienced major league success only to backslide in 2024. Of course, I am referring to infielder Nolan Gorman and outfielder Jordan Walker.
Ironically, both were drafted as third basemen, but moved to other positions as minor leaguers due in a large part to the multi-year commitment given to Nolan Arenado. With Arenado out of place on a team that hit the “reset” button for 2025, Gorman is considered the likely successor at third.
However, neither Gorman nor Walker is on solid ground as a major leaguer.
As his home runs and batting average dropped and his strikeouts increased, the now-24-year-old Gorman was sent down to Triple-A Memphis on August 21 and he did not return.
After a slow start with St. Louis, Walker was optioned out in April and was not recalled until mid-August. The 22-year-old is penciled in as St. Louis’ right fielder for 2025.
Suggesting the Cardinals’ entire youth movement in the near term is centered on these two would be unfair, but it is still a lot closer to the truth than not.
Because they refused to be traded, Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras are expected to the the veteran anchors of the 2025 team. But Gorman and Walker achieving the considerable upside that both hold could be the 2025 difference-maker.
On the starting pitching side, it is unclear how many youngsters will slot behind returnees Gray, Fedde and Andre Pallante. Any potential additions to the rotation are currently blocked by veterans Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz, both with bloated contracts compared to their results achieved.
Currently, Michael McGreevy appears to be at the front of the line and should get his shot if Matz is traded.
- Major Front Office Changes
In the last year, and more so since the end of the 2024 season, the Cardinals have made sweeping changes to their front office.
President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak confirmed his intention to step down following the 2025 season.
After focusing on player development in 2025, special assistant Chaim Bloom will take over for Mozeliak, on a five-year contract.
General Manager Michael Girsch was reassigned to a new VP of Special Projects position. The GM job will remain open for 2025, likely to be filled by a Bloom appointee later.
Assistant GM and Director of Player Development Gary LaRocque retired. His job was split into two individuals with Rob Cerfolio the new AGM and Larry Day the new PD director.
Director of Performance Dr. Robert Butler left the organization prior to the 2024 season and his position was unfilled until the Cardinals hired Carl Kochan in December.
Director of International Operations Luis Morales also departed before last season with his position still open.
- New Focus on Player Development
As several of the hires outlined above indicate, the Cardinals have made an affirmation to invest and modernize their player development capabilities. They announced an increase of 8-12% in spending in this area, which could be used both for personnel as well as the technologies and the infrastructure to support them.
On the people side, I touched on the first hire, that of Rob Cerfolio, Assistant General Manager for Player Development and Performance.
Under Cerfolio are Directors Larry Day, Carl Kochan and Director of Pitching Matt Pierpont. One level down are four new coordinators: Ryan Barba, Minor League Field Coordinator; Jose Leger – Assistant Minor League Field Coordinator / Baserunning Coordinator; Austin Meine – Minor League Pitching Coordinator; and Ethan Goforth – Minor League Catching Coordinator.
All these individuals and more will develop the new path that is intended to restore the Cardinals big-league player pipeline to prominence. The ultimate goal is to always have a supply of MLB-ready prospects for the big-league club to call upon.
The 2025 focus will be to lay in place the groundwork. The organization is betting its future on it.
- Goldenado Era Ends with a Whimper
As homegrown hitting stars Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols neared the end of their long and productive MLB careers, replacements with that kind of potential impact were nowhere to be found in the system.
Taking a page out of the playbook of Walt Jocketty several decades earlier, the Cardinals acquired a pair of celebrated veteran corner infielders hungry to win their first titles while anchoring the lineup for the organization’s anticipated next period of success.
Only it didn’t work out that way.
Prior to the 2019 season, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks. He brought with him six straight All-Star appearances, four Silver Slugger Awards, three Gold Glove Awards and four top 10 MVP finishes.
Though his contract had just one year remaining, Goldschmidt agreed to terms on a five-year extension before playing his first game wearing the Birds on the Bat. Other than 2021 and his MVP season of 2022, his other four years as a Cardinal were all below any of his seven peak years with the Diamondbacks. It culminated in a career-low 1.3 bWAR in 2024, his age 36 season.
Equally decorated, third baseman Nolan Arenado was acquired from the Colorado Rockies prior to the 2021 season with the desire to play for a contender. Like Goldschmidt, except for 2022, his other three years with St. Louis did not approach the productivity of any of his final six full seasons with the Rockies.
During the four seasons the two former NL West stars were in the middle of the St. Louis lineup, the trend was not positive. The club dropped two straight Wild Card Series without winning a game followed by two years of playoff misses.
While the team’s results the last two seasons were not all their fault, the facts indicate that the two declined from an aggregate 15.4 bWAR in 2022 to just 3.8 combined in 2024. The drop of 12 wins was almost impossible for the Cardinals to overcome.
St. Louis did not ask Goldschmidt back for 2025 and he subsequently signed with the New York Yankees. With the team’s ‘reset’ and youth focus, Arenado and the Cardinals agreed a trade would be in the best interest of both parties.
Despite a significant future financial commitment to Arenado, the Cardinals worked out a December trade with the Houston Astros, which Arenado turned down. He remains on the trade block.
- Veteran Leadership not the Answer, Either
From the 93-win, first place Cardinals of 2022 to the dreadful 2023 result of just 71 games against 91 losses shook the base of the proud franchise. St. Louis finished 21 games behind first-place Milwaukee and five games below perennial cellar-dweller Pittsburgh, the first last place team in the three decades of DeWitt ownership.
The major change made to try to reverse fortunes in 2024 was the signing of three new members of the starting rotation and two reserves, all via free agency. The rallying cry of the need for “veteran leadership” was met by the addition of the five, who were all well into their thirties.
The rotation overhaul, led by Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, was mostly required due to the lack of a pipeline of in-house developed pitchers to step in. None of the three delivered a negative bWAR (though Lynn was close), but they were not the solution, either. Had the rotation been hitting on all cylinders, there would have been no need to acquire Fedde in late July.
Billed as “innings eaters,” over 162 games, the 2024 Cardinals rotation threw just 32 more innings than the 2023 edition, though their ERA was improved.
Due to their relatively high salaries, Gibson and Lynn were not retained for 2025 and the Cardinals probably would have traded Gray, but he blocked that initiative.
The position players, infielders Matt Carpenter and Brandon Crawford, took up two of the Cardinals’ four reserve spots, with the other bench spots a catcher and an outfielder. When neither veteran hit when called upon, it severely limited manager Oliver Marmol’s options.
Carpenter logged a -0.1 bWAR, and Crawford was at -0.2 when released in August. Combine them with Dylan Carlson’s -1.0 before he was traded, and you get the picture. The veteran reserves were not contributing in a positive manner.
This, along with the continued decline of Goldenado and the stumbles of Walker and Gorman, left the 2024 Cardinals with a below average offense, 22nd in runs scored in MLB. Hence the new tagline of going with youth.
For the record, the 2024 Cardinals finished two games above .500, at 83-79, 10 games behind the division champion Milwaukee Brewers. As the direction of the non-playoff season became clear, more and more no-shows leading to sections of mostly-empty seats were evident at Busch Stadium.
Some of the by-products of the continued disappointment in 2024 include our top stories #2, #3, #4, #5 and #8.
Trying to reverse this trend while initiating a ‘reset’ that includes dropping the big-league payroll while increasing investment in player development is the ambitious game plan for 2025.
Follow on articles
- Revisiting TCN’s Top Cardinals Stories of 2024 Predictions
- Projected Top Five St. Louis Cardinals Stories of 2025
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com. Follow Brian and The Cardinal Nation on X/Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.
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