photo: Oliver Marmol (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
Most everyone makes predictions, but who comes back after the fact to self-assess the quality of the guesses? We do in this review of our top stories of the year predictions from 12 months ago.
Seemingly everyone makes predictions, but very few come back after the fact to self-assess the quality of the guesses. When bows are to be taken, memories are crystal clear, but bad takes are often conveniently forgotten.
That isn’t how we do it here at The Cardinal Nation, though. Whether we can strut or must eat a big piece of humble pie, we follow through.
Last year at this time, as in each January, I published my predictions of the topics I felt could evolve into the top five stories across the St. Louis Cardinals organization for the then-New Year of 2024.
Now with the benefit of full hindsight, including the Top 10 Stories of 2024 now on the books, it is time to return to my initial forecast.
The original top five projections from a year ago follow, along with where the stories ended up at year end. I won’t be repeating my 2024 summaries here, so click on the article link below if you’d like to read those detailed reports.
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Stories of 2024
This year, my predictive powers were ok. While all five of my predictions made the 2024 Top 10, it was a stretch to line several of them up.
Here is the scoreboard.
| Prediction | Actual | ||
| Pre-2024 prediction story | rank | rank | Post-2024 actual story |
| The “Over the Hill Gang” | 1 | 1 | Veteran Leadership Not the Answer, Either |
| Lame duck manager | 2 | 8 | Coaches Ward and McGee Replaced |
| Sorting out pitching prospects | 3 | 5 | Move to Reliance on Youth |
| Going for the Gold(y) | 4 | 2 | End of the Goldenado Era |
| Walker and Winn in year two | 5 | 5 | Move to Reliance on Youth |
Revisiting my predicted top five St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2024.
- The “Over the Hill Gang”
The Cardinals entered 2024 with a five-man rotation who were all between the ages of 32 and 36 and had all been signed as free agents. Three – Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn – were new additions made during the 2023-2024 off-season.
While these moves played into the “veteran leadership” theme for 2024, the real hope was to get more quality innings from the rotation and put less pressure on the bullpen. The cost of the starting five was $62.2 million in salary, over 35% of the team’s payroll expenditure.
The approach neither failed, nor was it partcularly successful. Compared to 2023, St. Louis’ 2024 starters threw just 32 more innings for the entire season. Their ERA improved from 26th in MLB (5.08) to 20th (4.33).
So, they were better, but still below average and the group really did not eat any more innings than in 2023.
For 2025, the Cardinals are trying to pivot to youth, but they are severely limited by the large contracts they previously agreed to.
They asked Gray if he would consider a trade, but he declined. Even if he would agree to a trade, Miles Mikolas’ salary compared to his contribution is too big to move. Steven Matz’ contract might be tradeable if the Cardinals would eat considerable salary. July addition Erick Fedde is most appealing to other teams because his 2025 cost is relatively low ($7.5 million).
As it currently stands, the 2025 rotation will still be highly veteran heavy with little apparent upside.
- Lame Duck Manager
Coming off 92 losses in 2023, one of the early Cardinals storylines of 2024 was how long they would continue with lame duck manager Oliver Marmol if the team again got out of the blocks slowly.
The Cardinals ended that speculation during Spring Training when they surprisingly announced a two-year contract extension for their manager. That quickly, the story became a non-story.
After the team went 83-79 in 2024, the Cardinals changed their hitting coach and their outfield coach for 2025.
- Sorting out Pitching Prospects
After acquiring nine minor leaguers, primarily pitching prospects, at the 2023 trade deadline, it was hoped that the team would use 2024 to determine which candidates were keepers.
With Lynn and Gibson on one-year contracts for 2024 with 2025 team options, they could be kept if the youngsters did not emerge or let go if younger and cheaper options emerged during the 2024 season.
While Lynn and Gibson were in fact eventually let go, the reason was money. In terms of replacements, the team is no better off than they were the year before. In fact, they traded away a valuable position player in Tommy Edman just to get another veteran starting pitcher, Erick Fedde.
For various reasons, primarily injury or ineffectiveness, of the following candidates, just one, Michael McGreevy, has emerged. And he was already in the organization prior to 2023.
Incumbents with Major League experience coming into 2024 included Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom. Other prospects added late in the 2023 season included Tekoah Roby, Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse. Homegrown candidates included Gordon Graceffo, McGreevy and Tink Hence.
- Going for the Gold(y)
2022 National League Most Valuable Player Paul Goldschmidt was heading into the final season of his contract in 2024. Coming off a disappointing 2023, he had the opportunity to earn perhaps a career-ending extension with the Cardinals if he could return his performance to his prior standards.
Instead, the 36-year-old fell deeper into a late-career slump and the Cardinals made no overtures to retain his services for 2025. Goldschmidt moved to the New York Yankees as a free agent.
In the fall, the Cardinals announced that catcher Willson Contreras would be moving to first base for 2025.
- Walker and Winn in Year Two
Hope for improvement from the Cardinals offense in 2024 was focused on a pair of then-21-year-olds. Right fielder Jordan Walker and shortstop Masyn Winn have been closely linked since they were drafted in the first and second rounds, respectively, in 2020.
However, their fortunes in 2024 were very different.
Despite Walker having more MLB experience, it was Winn who took off, becoming one of the league’s best rookies. The Cardinals showed little patience with Walker’s slow start, sending him down to Triple-A in April, from where he did not return until August.
Now, with Winn established, the 2025 focus is on Walker and another former first-rounder, Nolan Gorman, to elevate their game.
Next up
In the final article of this annual series, I outline my predictions for the top five St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2025.
Earlier article: The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 Stories of 2024
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Stories of 2024
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com. Follow Brian and The Cardinal Nation on X/Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.
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