photo: Chase Davis (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
Palm Beach outfielder Chase Davis turned around a first year of frustration with a breakout June, topping eight other finalists as The Cardinal Nation’s top hitter in the St. Louis Cardinals system last month. Top 10 prospects and last month’s winners’ results are also reviewed.
This article details the selection of The Cardinal Nation’s Player of the Month. Considered were offensive results during June across the entire St. Louis Cardinals system. The winner as well as a group of eight runners up are highlighted.
Using the MiLB rule of 2.7 plate appearances per team game played, we used 70 PAs as the qualifying line this month, except for players from the Florida Complex League, which played 20 games, for a minimum PA line of 54 for rookie ballers.
As a result, a total of 39 hitters in the system qualified. Nine further separated themselves with an OPS above .900. They are bunched in pairs with two over 1.085, two around 1.040, two in the mid .900s and the final three just over the qualification line.
When all is said and done, Palm Beach outfielder Chase Davis is our June winner.
Demographics
In a bit of a surprise, the rookie-level Dominican Summer League Cards tied Memphis with three finalists each. Palm Beach, Peoria and Springfield split three while the Florida Complex League Cards were shut out, with no qualifying hitter posting a June OPS of .850 or better.
Reminder
Please remember, this is NOT the “Player of the Month Among Top Prospects”. Every player in the system has an equal chance, with only their performance during the month used to differentiate the best of the best. Age and level, which are key prospect considerations, are not factors here, either.
We will take two views of the data. The first look will be basic counting stats, followed by rate stats. Names are listed in the same sequence in both tables, in descending OPS order.
Counting stats
| June hitter | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | OPS |
| Chase Davis | PB | 19 | 71 | 59 | 15 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1.107 |
| Nick Dunn | Mem | 19 | 76 | 69 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.085 |
| Luken Baker | Mem | 22 | 94 | 79 | 14 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1.041 |
| Dakota Harris | Peo/Spr | 20 | 87 | 76 | 15 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1.039 |
| Matt Koperniak | Mem | 23 | 102 | 93 | 12 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0.960 |
| Chris Rotondo | Peo | 19 | 85 | 72 | 15 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0.935 |
| Rainiel Rodriguez | DSL | 15 | 69 | 58 | 12 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.908 |
| Yairo Padilla | DSL | 17 | 81 | 67 | 17 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 2 | 0.903 |
| Facundo Velasquez | DSL | 18 | 64 | 56 | 17 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0.901 |
The top two hitters in OPS should be considered the early leaders, with Davis at 1.107 and Memphis infielder Nick Dunn at an also impressive 1.085.
The next stat that caught my eye was the run production of two players. Peoria-Springfield second baseman Dakota Harris impressively drove in 23 runners in just 20 games. Davis was right behind with 22 RBI.
Our May Player of the Month, Memphis first baseman Luken Baker, set the new Redbirds career home run record, capped off by a system-leading nine in June. However, Baker’s RBI count was “just” 17.
Tied for second in the system with five long balls was Harris, who earned a late month promotion to Double-A.
In a gauge of potential emerging power, Davis tied two non-finalists for the most doubles in the system last month with seven.
In his professional debut, switch-hitting DSL shortstop Yairo Padilla really stepped forward with 16 stolen bases in 18 tries – over just 17 games. Only one other player in the system, non-finalist Miguel Villarroel, had more than nine steals (12) during June.
In addition to his exceptional OPS, Dunn stands out for his very low walk total of four, which doubles his amazingly low strikeout total of two in 76 plate appearances. Wow!
The only other finalist who walked more than he struck out was Davis, with 17 free passes taken against 13 Ks.
Rate stats
| June hitter | Tm | PA | BB% | K% | BABIP | ISO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Chase Davis | PB | 71 | 21.3% | 16.3% | 0.333 | 0.322 | 0.322 | 0.463 | 0.644 | 1.107 |
| Nick Dunn | Mem | 76 | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.403 | 0.217 | 0.420 | 0.447 | 0.638 | 1.085 |
| Luken Baker | Mem | 94 | 14.9% | 20.2% | 0.250 | 0.380 | 0.278 | 0.383 | 0.658 | 1.041 |
| Dakota Harris | Peo/Spr | 87 | 5.7% | 10.3% | ~0.420 | 0.212 | 0.395 | 0.432 | 0.607 | 1.039 |
| Matt Koperniak | Mem | 102 | 6.9% | 15.7% | 0.397 | 0.194 | 0.355 | 0.412 | 0.548 | 0.960 |
| Chris Rotondo | Peo | 85 | 10.6% | 27.1% | 0.457 | 0.167 | 0.333 | 0.435 | 0.500 | 0.935 |
| Rainiel Rodriguez | DSL | 69 | 7.2% | 15.9% | 0.367 | 0.190 | 0.328 | 0.391 | 0.517 | 0.908 |
| Yairo Padilla | DSL | 81 | 11.1% | 19.8% | 0.412 | 0.149 | 0.328 | 0.425 | 0.478 | 0.903 |
| Facundo Velasquez | DSL | 64 | 16.2% | 35.1% | 0.414 | 0.232 | 0.250 | 0.419 | 0.482 | 0.901 |
As we get into the rate stats, we see that Dunn is joined by Harris, Memphis outfielder Matt Koperniak and DSL catcher Rainiel Rodriguez with walk rates under 7.3%.
The best walk rate among finalists by a considerable margin was compiled by Davis at 21.3%. This is not a flash in the pan, as the outfielder was known for his discriminating eye at the plate while in college at Arizona.
The candidacy of DSL center fielder Facundo Valasquez is hurt by his very high 35.1% strikeout rate. Peoria outfielder Chris Rotondo was next highest among finalists at 27.1%.
Dunn’s minuscule 2.6% strikeout rate dwarfed everyone, though Harris’ 10.3% mark is also notable.
Good fortune in the guise of a high BABIP pushes down many of the OBP leaders. Specifically, six of the nine finalists had BABIPs of .397 or higher and another came in at .367.
At the other end of the spectrum, Baker’s .250 BABIP suggests the big man was somewhat unlucky during June, making his strong results while overcoming BABIP misfortune even more impressive.
That leaves Davis as the only finalist with a June BABIP in a somewhat normal range, though a tad high at .333.
In Isolated Power, ISO, again Baker’s .380 led the way. The .322 ISO of Davis is also very notable as the only other finalist above .232.
Though aided by a high .403 BABIP, Dunn’s .420 batting average was still impressive, topping the entire system in June. Also exceptional was Harris at .395 (with an approximate .420 BABIP).
In fact, almost all the finalists hit for average in June, with only two, Baker (.250) and Velasquez (.278), below .322.
Davis’ .463 on-base percentage was highest, with Dunn, Rotondo and Harris all at .432 or above. No finalists reached base at a clip lower than .383 (Baker).
The top three hitters in OPS were also tops in slugging, though in a different sequence. Baker was the top slugger, followed by Davis, with Davis leading Dunn in OPS.
When all is said and done, Davis’s exceptional month across the board gives him the honors as The Cardinal Nation’s June Player of the Month. He led finalists in doubles, walks and walk rate, OBP and OPS. The Palm Beach outfielder was second in RBI, isolated power and slugging percentage, all while registering a reasonable BABIP.
About the winner
Davis needs little introduction, as most readers know the 22-year-old was St. Louis’ first-round draft pick in 2023, receiving over $3.6 million to sign. It has been a tough road for the left-handed hitter since, however.
In his Low-A Palm Beach introduction last season, Davis slashed just .212/.366/.269/.636. That included just six doubles and no home runs in 131 plate appearances, despite coaches asking him to be more aggressive at the plate.
Davis returned to the Beach Birds in 2024 and did not show progress through April and May. In fact, he digressed offensively. Coming into June, Davis was hitting just .184 (26-for-141), with a 29.7% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. This makes his June emergence as surprising as it was exceptional.
Judging by roughly halving his K rate and doubling his walk rate in June, Davis may have returned to his core strengths. He was the Florida State League Player of the Week for the period of June 10-16 and is The Cardinal Nation’s 11th-ranked prospect.
On Wednesday, July 3, Davis was also selected as the FSL Player of the Month, after ranking first or second in the Class-A circuit in OBP, slugging, OPS, RBI, extra-base hits and walks.
Continued success in Low-A should earn Davis a promotion to High-A Peoria, where he can catch up with other top hitting draft picks from last July. After all, the Cardinals 2024 draft class will be arriving in Palm Beach later this month.
Top 10 hitters in the system during May
Here is how the top 10 hitters in the Cardinals organization per The Cardinal Nation’s rankings fared last month.
#5 Thomas Saggese (Memphis) – The infielder digressed from his tepid .623 OPS in May to a .595 mark in June, far below his career history. Saggese’s June strikeout rate was 24.5%, up from 23% the month before. His June walk rate of just 5.3% was a minuscule improvement from 5% in May.
#6 Victor Scott (Memphis) – Known for his stolen bases, Scott took fewer chances in June, leading to six total steals for the month, down from 12 in May. The center fielder slashed just .233/.266/.289/.555, with the latter down from his unimpressive May OPS of .571.
#7 Leonardo Bernal (Peoria) – The 20-year-old catcher quietly continued his strong play for an offensively starved Peoria club. Bernal’s June slash line was .275/.375/.464/.839.
#8 Jimmy Crooks (Springfield) – Same goes for the backstop one level up, as Crooks fashioned a consistent and solid June Double-A line of .278/.366/.458/.824.
May’s winners in June
The June results of The Cardinal Nation’s May Player of the Month, Baker, are documented in the finalist tables above. It surprises me that while some fans are clamoring for his recently hot teammates Dunn and Koperniak to join St. Louis, the more consistent Baker is seemingly forgotten.
The Cardinals organization also looked away from Baker in May, making his prospect teammate Cesar Prieto the Player of the Month selection instead. This is despite the former having posted superior numbers.
The Cardinal Nation May 2024 Player of the Month – Luken Baker
In June, Prieto slashed .295/.353/.423/.776, credible results but ones that are far below our finalists. After a month of May in which it looked like his power was emerging, Prieto hit just one hone run and plated only four in 86 June plate appearances.
What is next?
The Cardinals organization should also name their own selections of June Player and Pitcher of the Month in the upcoming days.
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