photo: Willson Contreras (St. Louis Cardinals)
As the trade deadline draws near, there has been some speculation as to whether the St. Louis Cardinals might consider trading catcher Willson Contreras. Although it would seem that this might be one of the flags that politicians send up to test the waters on an idea, the Houston Astros might be a suitable partner for the former All-Star catcher.
Here is how I would format this deal If I were the Cardinals front office trying to get younger and more elite going forward.
The St. Louis Cardinals trade right-hander Jordan Montgomery and catcher Willson Contreras to the Houston Astros for pitchers Hunter Brown and Forrest Whitley, and catcher Yainer Diaz.
Here’s how it might work for both sides.
We know that the Houston Astros have title aspirations but need pitching help and a pitcher like Montgomery fits the bill. He is established. He was one of the keys to the Cardinals run last year after being acquired at the trade deadline. He is pitching well and the former Yankees hurler knows the American League. Montgomery is definitively a better option than former Astro Justin Verlander, who has been linked to Houston trade speculations.
Montgomery is 6-8 with a very respectable 3.37 ERA on a mediocre St. Louis team. In his last five starts, he has gone six innings or more four times. He has given up more than two runs a game just once over that same span. He is pitching better than most of the Astros staff, and although an upcoming free agent, his dollar requirements won’t be super extravagant.
Willson Contreras was reportedly a desire of the Astros as a free agent last winter, but St. Louis scooped him away. He is not a bargain price guy on the payroll so St. Louis will probably have to eat some of the check to make it work. That aside, Contreras is better than the options Houston has. It’s why they wanted him in the first place.
Insert Contreras into the number six spot between Yordan Alvarez and Chas McCormick or in the nine hole before the top of the order and he may thrive. Contreras is the elite catcher Houston has been looking for since they converted Hall of Famer Craig Biggio to a center fielder and later a second baseman.
The Cardinals would get the electric arm of Hunter Brown. Brown at just 24 years old in only his first full season in the majors would give St. Louis a lot of room to work with contract wise. With 122 strikeouts in 105 1/3 innings this year, he is worth the look. Brown throws strikes 58 percent of the time. In 2022 with limited work (20 IP), he had an 0.89 ERA. Brown’s fastball tops out at triple digits while his slider locks in at 90 and his curveball is slow, resembling a younger version of Verlander. Brown has a lot of upside for a team looking to the future and at $725K the salary is right. He is not arbitration eligible until 2026.
Listed as a starter in the minors, Forrest Whitley has been dealing with a rash of injuries including Tommy John surgery in 2021. His fastball hits in the upper 90’s and will occasionally top the century mark when he is healthy. Whitley has been out since May 25th with a right lateral strain and is expected back on the hill in August. Prior to his setback in May, Whitley had posted a 5.70 ERA in 30 innings for Houston’s Triple-A franchise.
Whitley’s best season in the minors came in 2017 when he struck out 143 in 92 1/3 innings for three different teams working his way up to Corpus Christi Double-A ball in the Houston organization. Whitley is one person St. Louis could take a flyer on and have it pay off big as he is still just 25 years old. Maybe a change of scenery for the right-hander is just what the doctor ordered.
Catcher Yainer Diaz was thought to be ready to take over the everyday backstop duties in Houston but has not been given the opportunity. That they have consistently restrained his appearances and yet he still continues to perform is a testament to his preparation. He strikes out less than 20 percent of the time and also hits for power. He is batting a respectable .263 with 12 home runs, 28 RBI, and a .773 OPS.
It only stands to reason that with regular playing time, which he could get in St. Louis that his numbers could continue to grow upward. Diaz has a pretty good handle on the pitching staff as well with starters carrying a sub four ERA with him behind the dish. His arm is pretty good as evidenced by throwing out 9 of 24 would be base stealers. His contract is doable as well he is not arbitration eligible until 2026.
Whether St. Louis is entertaining or approaching the Astros about trade possibilities is anyone’s guess, but it might be worth considering.
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