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Here’s your chance to put all of your knowledge to and opinion to good use. Pretend you are the PBO/GM of the Cardinals and the owner has told you that you have $200 million to spend on the 2024 payroll. Using that budget, come up with a realistic opening day roster (both 40- and 26-man). Explain how you got (trade, FA signing, etc) to your roster. As an added bit of fun, come up with your “dream-team” roster using only current major leaguers (no retirees no matter how recent they retired) with a “sky’s the limit budget” for this roster. Feel free to use any of the pundit sites that list salary numbers for the players you have on your roster. Just be consistent and always cite the source for your figures.
We will see how close you get to the actual roster as well as periodically throughout the 2024 season we will see how your roster would be faring if it was the actual roster. The winner gets one of 1TD’s famous Trivia prizes!
Ready, Set, GO!
All new guys by FA signing.
Snell (L) 30
Yamamoto (R) 25
Nola (R) 25
Montgomery (L) 25
Gray (R) 25
————– 130
Hader (L) 18
Stephenson (R) 17
Matsui (L) 8
Helsley (R) 3
Romero (L)1
Thompson (L)1
Liberatore (R) 1
Pallante (R) 1
————— 50
Walker DH 1
Nootbaar RF 1
Carlson LF 2
Palocios 1
Burleson 1
———————-6
Edman CF 6
Donovan 2B 1
Winn SS 1
Gorman 3B 1
Baker 1B 1
Saggese or similar 1
———————11
Herrera 1
Knizner 2
———————-3
———————-200This is kind of a difficult assignment to put together TN – at least if you want to do it realistically.
For example, Bling has us magically signing 5 top free agent starters for reasonable costs. Maybe we’re giving them all 7 year deals to get that (except Gray at 3 or 4 years)? And still, some are likely to still get paid more elsewhere. And then he’s trading away Arenado, Goldschmidt, O’Neill and an underwater Contreras contract and assuming that we will owe nothing to any of those guys and I guess we’re getting all minor leaguers in return plus sending several with Contreras to offset what we owe him. Plus, somehow we don’t owe Yamamoto a signing bonus.
I think it’s just hard to make this a reality. J. P. Hill did a nice job with 3 full articles on Viva El Birdos. He had to put max effort into the exercise though – too much for this space. So I think I’m out. But it was a good thought!
Jnevel, humbug, it is plausible. Values all within the range of projections, including Yamamoto, with the bonus spread out and included. We have ample prospects to send with Contreras to compensate for the contract shortfall. Prospects to be replaced by the take when offloading the bronze busts and the others.
The idea is to lean into our strength, which is young position players. Although surely not all 5 of the named starters could be had, $130 Million, or anything remotely approaching that, would buy a rotation dream team. And as I illustrate, it is doable.
I’ll give you a realistic offseason upgrade and build from there.
First, I don’t think a $200 million payroll is realistic. The Cardinals have already backtracked from their “dry powder” to saying they need to be “prudent” and payroll will be similar to opening day projections last year.
I figure if the Cardinals trade O’Neill, Hudson and Gallegos, they can have as much as $56 million available.
So, these are my adds using the AAV’s that Pads put together on another thread:
Starting Pitching:
SP1: Ryu: $11.5
SP2: Clevinger: $12.0
SP3: Lugo: $13.7
SP4: Matz: $12.5
SP5: Mikolas: $17.7Subtotal – Starting Rotation: $67.4
I’ve added $47 million to the starting rotation to replace the $33 million coming off the books.
Relief Pitching:
RHRP: Helsley: $3.0
LHRP: Romero: $1.0
LHRP: King: $1.3
RHRP: Zuniga: $0.8
RHRP: Rodriguez: $0.8
LHRP: Thompson: $0.8
LHRP: Liberatore: $0.8
RHRP: Jason Foley: $0.8
LHRP: Tyler Holton: $0.8Subtotal – Relief Pitching: $10.1
Spotrac estimates Helsley will earn an increase of $850,000 in arbitration.
Spotrac estimates Romero will earn an increase of $280,000 in arbitration.
Spotrac estimates King will earn an increase of $480,000 in arbitration.
I am trading Giovanny Gallegos, who is scheduled to earn $5.75 million in 2024.
I am trading Dakota Hudson, who is projected to earn $4 million in 2024.
Right now, I have one more relief pitcher on the 26 man that is allowed.Infield:
1B: Goldschmidt: $26.0
2B: Gorman: $0.8
SS: Edman: $8.1 (Spotrac estimate)
3B: Arenado: $35
DH: Walker: $0.8
C: Contreras: $18
Backup C: Herrera: $0.8
Backup SS: DeJong: $1Subtotal – Infield: $90.5
Spotrac projects Edman for a $3.9 million increase in arbitration.
Contreras is getting a contractual $8 million increase over 2023.
I am trading Knizner to Miami for Anthony Maldonado (AAA relief pitcher with 1.62 ERA in 2023). Knizner is projected for a $1.5 million increase in arbitration by Spotrac. If Maldonado is kept in AAA, this saves $2.5 million.
I am bringing back DeJong as a backup SS because Winn has proven he is not ready for MLB.Outfield:
CF: Duvall: $5
RF: Nootbaar: $0.8
LF: Donovan: $0.8
4th OF: Palacios: $0.8
5th OF: Pinder: $0.8Subtotal – Outfield: $8.2
I am trading away O’Neill (5.4 est) & Carlson ($2.1 est) and replacing them with Duvall & Pinder for a savings of roughly $1.3 million.
Total Projected Budget: $176.2 million
Trades:
Knizner to Miami for Maldonado (saves estimated $2.5 million)
O’Neill, Carlson & Gallegos to Detroit for Jason Foley & Tyler Holton. This saves an estimated $11.6 million and improves the bullpen.
Hudson for prospects (saves estimated $4 million)In an alternative trade, I would trade Contreras + Burleson to the Yankees for Drew Thorpe + Anthony Hall.
This would save $18.5 million, which could be used to sign Jordan Montgomery and add prospects to the system.
In this scenario, Knizner remains with the Cardinals and the trade with Miami is nullified.
If Montgomery was resigned, I would then look to trade Mikolas.
, humbug, it is plausible.
I think in theory your proposal has great merit. Send Mo and Oily on down the road and we are good to go. Much thanks to Mo for all the good teams, but it’s time to triple shuffle the deck. Everything about this organization has gone stale except the young core group. As Bling says, lean on that strength. It’s fun to pretend, right? But how much different is it than what Whitey did? Sent a bunch of fan favorites down the road and ushered in a new era. That’s what we need now.
Hey Bling-I will save you 5.5 mil. Trade Tommy. Victor Scott cf. Get a better reliever from the trade. NASCAR on the basepaths with Scott and Winn.
Hey Bling-I will save you 5.5 mil. Trade Tommy. Victor Scott cf. Get a better reliever from the trade. NASCAR on the basepaths with Scott and Winn.
I thought about that exact thing. But in the given scenario of a $200 Million payroll, there was no need to add another unproven guy on top of Baker and Winn, while also removing your SS Plan B. If you want to assume a more realistic $175 M, then swap in a $5 arb eligible pitcher for one of the $25 M guys and cut $5 M out of the pen. You need to keep Edman to backfill SS, which Scott cannot do.
My moves are to streamline the rotation a bit and then clear out some of the logjam in the middle infield. My first priority is to find my “ace.” I’m going back to the same pitcher that I’ve had my eye on for several years…Aaron Nola. There’s no sense getting cute about it. He will cost a draft pick, but if we are going to give up the pick, I’d rather get a guy who’s a true front of the rotation guy and not Gray.
I’ll peg his free agent deal for us at 6 years and $170M (25-30-30-30-30-25). So my #1 is taken care of. Payroll is bumped to $169M.
Next I’m on the lookout for trades. I call the Marlins, but they want Herrera and I think he’s the everyday catcher of the near future. I call New York but they aren’t willing to give more than pennies on the dollar for my OF surplus. So I call Seattle about their envious glut. We talk about Logan Glibert, but they won’t bite. So we shift to one Mr Bryce Miller. He had a solid opening campaign up from AA, and won’t cost as much. Crawford is great at short for them, but their 1B-2B-3B situation is a little sticky. So I’m offering them Mr Thomas Edman, and as a backfill for their rotation I’m giving them Matt Liberatore, who just seems like he needs a change of scenery. The Ms did good things with the last lefty we gave them. So I’ve got my #4 pitcher now, with nice upside. And I’ve saved a couple bucks to boot. Edman is projected at $8M next year so my payroll is back to $162M.
With a projected payroll of around $190M, I can go fishing for a few other needs now. I look at the other expensive free agent starters, including Yamamoto, but he’s just going to price himself out of my comfort zone. I make a competitive play for Imanaga, but he ultimately likes playing on the coast, so I can’t sway him despite the robust offer. So we’re looking to bolster the bullpen, and another Japanese arm, Yuki Matsui. He’s not going to be my closer anyway, but he could be the next Asian bullpen ace for St Louis. I like him on a 3 year deal for $20M (5-7-8). So my payroll is now at $167M.
At this point I’m a bit torn on the direction to go. I could look to swing my depth in trades further, or I could wade into the midpoint of the free agent market. I’m calling Stroman’s agent, but he’s still a bit stung by the lack of interest last time around. I look at Lugo, but he’s too much of a risk for me. Monty is an arm I really like, but he gets 6 years and $145M on the market and that’s a little rich for me. So I go back to the trade market. We get Chaim on the line and try to sweet talk Tampa out of Tyler Glasnow. They want a bit too much for someone to take the entire deal off their hands, so I balk. Rumors start flying as I talk with the White Sox. We even float a blockbuster deal that would involve Dylan Cease, Luis Robert, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker and more. But ultimately we can’t get to a framework that makes sense for either proud franchise, and it falls through. I approach Arizona about a starter, but they’re not biting on my depth either. Toronto wants full value for Manoah, an ark full of prospects.
I’m getting frustrated, when I recall my old trading buddy…the Cleveland Indians, erm, Guardians. I get on the phone with Shapiro…wait, I mean Chernoff…and ask him about his list of future aces. I really like McKenzie fresh off a minor repair…but he’s untouchable. Not too excited about Logan Allen. Daniel Espino…yes sir, but he’s not going to help me so much at the moment. So he shows me the back lot special, an old reliable Shane Bieber. The Biebsmobile isn’t a finely tuned machine like it once was, but the special financing available means only a one year commitment and maybe it won’t break down before that year is up. But if it does…it’s up to you to carry the spare parts for the fix, because there’s no warranty on this baby. We agree that the Guardians can pick one of my excess autos as a swap and they choose the Dylan Carlson model over the Tyler O’Neill model. So we are set there. Starter #3 acquired, and a bump in payroll of about $10M to $177M.
Am I done? Perhaps. But I like the deal so I’m on the lookout for falling stars. Lucas Giolito nearly falls into my lap at the end of spring training as he has no deal still and I offer a 1 year, $7M pillow deal. I’m beat out, oddly, by the Pirates, who offer him 2 years and $20M with an out after 1 year and $7M. Lightning Luke rewards them with an All Star appearance and a shiny 2.86 ERA in the first half, only to revert to his usual self after the break and finish with 180+ innings of 4.20 ERA to set himself up to test the market again. One guy I do pick up is our old friend Harry Bader. He can still glove it in the OF and will be my CFer until Scott is ready mid season. I get him for a cool $6M guarantee, with a 4M bonus if he starts 120 games in CF. So my payroll is now $183M.
My final move of the offseason is a trade. I dangle Tyler O’Neill, but he’s not a hot commodity anymore so I hold onto him and hope that he hits well enough and stays healthy enough to be a part of my OF rotation (he’ll spell Walker defensively late, plus start about 1/3 of the time in CF for Bader and back up Noot in right occasionally too…I’m aiming for 350ish PA for Tyler if he stays all year). Andrew Knizner is the consummate backup and has some value to the team, but he’s bringing me back a relief arm. Who? I’m not sure it matters a lot, but to pick a name out of a hat…Victor Vodnik of the Rockies. He’s young, good K rate, not so great walk rate, but he could be a flier. The Rockies seem to like trading with us.
So, in summary:
C-Contreras
1B-Goldy
2B-Gorman
SS-Winn
3B-Arenado
LF-Walker
CF-Bader
RF-Noot
DH/UT-DonovanBench-Herrera, O’Neill, Palacios, I guess Fermin or Burleson or whomever you’d like. The MI depth might suggest we need Saggese up.
In the wings-Scott, Saggese, Baker, Burleson or whomever misses out on the spot.
SP1-Nola
SP2-Bieber
SP3-Mikolas
SP4-Miller
SP5-MatzIn the wings-Graceffo, McGreevy, Hudson
Righty relief-Helsley, Gallegos, Pallante, Vodnik, Hudson, Woodford
Lefty relief-Matsui, Romero, Naughton, Thompson, RomOf course we can’t hold all those guys in the pen all at once, but they can be swapped out. The Cards have plenty of lefty relief and I’d have liked to add a righty, but I wanted to be prudent with the cash on hand. I think my team competes mightily with Chicago in the Central and has a shot in the playoffs if a couple of guys like Gorman and Walker play to their potential. I do think adding a righty relief arm will be priority at the deadline and have to hope one of the rental arms is on a team that falls out of contention. It’s certainly possible.
Card-25 I think your plan is garbage.
Listen, I know you love Tommy Edman and you’re allowed to…just as I’m allowed to feel less enamored with him and willing to deal him in the right circumstances. His value to the team is established, and it’s not “core player.” It’s ok if you disagree, but I think calling it “garbage” is a bit too personal and over the top.
What would your offseason look like if you were Mo-Girsch? That’s what this thread is about.
To your respective corners, gentlemen! Before we have ourselves an outright verbal brawl here. First off, I do agree with GameCard’s description of Tommy being one of our “core players”. Tommy was a bit off his game in 2023, but watch out for next year as it’s going to be a huge 2024 campaign for Tommy. But…….associating the
esteemed stlcard25’s name with the word “garbage” is completely off base and a GameCard apology is definitely in order.This was meant to be a “fun” exercise to allow all the posters this year who criticized the FO for the team they put on the field. Instead of insulting a poster’s entry on the topic, put together a roster that you would be better. If you are unwilling to do that then move along as there would be nothing to see here for you.
As far as the 200 million budget, I read a post (I believe it was on El Birdos) where the blog author had done some calculations and arrived at a 2024 projected budget of 196 million. Since I like to work with round numbers I went with the 200M.
Kudos to those who have participated with your lineups. I hope that many more will do the same!
Normally, I would like nothing more than to pretend that I was Johnny or one of the other whiz-kid leaders of my favorite team. But with the possibility of Yadier Molina riding into town to take over either a coaching or field manager job with the Redbirds I’m going to decline to do so while that possibility exists simply because my safety takes precedence over any make believe job…Until then, I’ll let Johnny and his minions remain in harm’s way.
I will go out on a limb and state the obvious. The return of fan favorite Manny Motter has to be orchestrated if the Redbirds are to return to prominence in ’24. Manny Motter simply makes things happen all over the field of play. You can’t replace a one of a kind player like Manny.
I’d have to proclaim that his mitt, versatility and SB threat all qualify Edman as a well above average player, which are the key reasons I think he’d bring a substantial return in any trade. A lot of teams would love to have him. Sure, he had a down year, but I expect him to bounce back in ’24. Not all players provide the year in and year out consistency of a guy like the great Manny Motter. It’s one of several reasons that I think his return to the Redbirds is crucial to their success. Manny needs to be back in StL. providing Cardinal fans with the same sort of thrills that we all witnessed in ’23. The current Cardinal manager was smart enough to provide Manny with plenty of playing time in ’23, so you can be certain both he and Johnny will be focused on enticing Manny back into a Cardinal uniform in ’24.
If Edman is traded, we will need to acquire backfill in case Winn goes down long term. That aspect cannot be swept under the rug like folks keep doing.
Manny’ll more than be able to cover the SS position should Winn not pan out…And besides, you just know that after “working on his swing” over the winter, that DeJong will be invited to ST’ing. Johnny’s got this covered up…Haha!
I’d like to see Michael Wacha back in a Cardinal uniform. Not only do I think he’d he’d do well back in St. Louis, but I’m also guessing he’d sell some extra tickets on days that he worked. I also think he could be enticed to return to the Cardinals for a reasonable amout of money. I always liked Wacha and the one grudge I still have with Mike Matheny is in regards to when he placed the baseball in Wacha’s hands out in SF during the ’14 post-season after Michael hadn’t seen any work in almost a month. That was a bad mistake.
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