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I’ve been seeing this question (posed in the title of this string) a lot on forums and thought it would be a good discussion point.
Some of the reasons for the difference are things I pointed out in my offseason thread:
– Burleson out of the outfield (mostly)
– Walker going to play better defense
– Having Pallante/Fedde in the starting rotation for a full season
– Only having Burleson hit against righties (mostly)
– Keeping Contreras healthy and in the lineup by moving him to 1B
– Finding a replacement for Siani in CF
– Hopefully, having a healthier Nootbaar
– Finally getting some pitching help from our exciting youngsters – at least into our bullpen. I had guessed Graceffo would be the primary difference maker
– Not getting as unlucky as Goldschmidt was when hitting with RiSP.Every one of those things appears to have happened and every one of those things has made this team better than the 2024 version. I also had in my plan that we’d get McGreevey into the rotation, but we’ll touch on that in just a second.
We’ve gotten a few additional major contributions that were not expected:
– Liberatore suddenly changed from solid bullpen piece to elite starting pitcher. While he’s taking starts away from McGreevey, you can’t argue with the results. He’s been amazing.
– Leahy has had a really good run so far as a reliever. This happens with relievers from time to time, but he was expected to be more average and he’s been great.
– Additions of Pozo, Barrero, and Maton have all been positives. None of those were in the original plan.
– Victor Scott II has done an amazing job upgrading the CF position. I planned for an upgrade, but wasn’t sure whether it would be Scott or not. And even if it was, I never expected him to be as successful as both a hitter and fielder as he has been.
– I can’t say enough about the job Contreras has done on defense. I expected him to be average. He has been well above average in the eye test.
– Matz has been perfect as a swingman. You can’t ask for better results than what we’ve gotten from him.The only things that haven’t gone right are the offensive challenges of Walker and Gorman along with the collapse of Ryan Fernandez. You also had the disastrous starts offensively for Winn and particularly Contreras and some of the bullpen team and the injury for Herrera. But that’s it. A whole lot has gone right.
Did I miss anything?
#1-Libby solidified the rotation.
#2-Scott solidified the outfield defense. Siani played defense but his offense just didn’t play in the majors. No way we could take advantage of Walkers much improved defense while waiting for his offense to come around without Scott’s contributions on offense.
#3 Healthy Noot
There’s a bunch of honorable mentions. It’s been a joy to watch baseball again.
What I find odd is that they are playing at about the same rate against winning teams as losing teams.
.500 or better – 11-8
Below .500 – 13-12We tend to latch onto the Mets and Phillies series wins, which are notable as they beat good teams. But it seems to me if the Cards could do better against the poorer teams while continuing to play well against the good teams, it could become a playoff contending year.
However, we will have to wait awhile to see, as five of the next six series are against winning teams.
One thing I failed to really capture is the monster change in defense. I mentioned Burleson and Walker above and lightly touched on the improved catcher defense back in my piece over the winter, but who would have expected these numbers for Outs above average just 2 months into the season?
Scott – 6
Winn – 5
Arenado – 5
Donovan – 3
Contreras – 3
1 for Saggese, Gorman, Walker, Siani, Burleson, and NootbaarNot one single player is negative. Barrero is the only position player at zero and he has barely played. (Note that catchers are not included in the OAA stat).
In ‘24, Burleson was -8, Gorman was -6, Carlson and Walker were -4, and Fermin was -3. That’s a lot of extra at bats that potentially created long innings for our pitchers. Now it’s the opposite. Our players are saving our pitchers from what should have been extended innings. The cumulative impact is huge.
Some good points. I think the biggest factors are the maturity of several younger players – notably Donovan, Nootbaar, Herrera, and Scott has enhanced the offense.
The same can be said for Liberatore, Leahy, and to some extent Graceffo and McGreevy on the pitching side, but the latter two have been largely squeezed out of innings for the most part. Fedde has been better than projected – that deal in sending Edman out for Fedde looks pretty good right now, as there is really no place we need Tommy. He would probably be in center field, taking ABs away from Scott. Then again, if Fedde were not here we would likely have McGreevy going every fifth day and that might be just as good. So with Tommy we would be holding Scott back instead of McGreevy. Kind of a toss up.
Walker is playing better defense, but his bat looks like it may not come around. The problem I see with him is similar to Baker – his swing is too mechanical. He can’t get to outside pitches because he uses the same swing all the time, and sort of waves at the ball rather than get out and attack those outside pitches. His hands are too far out in front on outside pitches. He needs to learn to adjust to those, keep the hands in and attack the ball rather than sort of wave over it. If he cannot do that, he could end up as a promising prospect who could not adjust to this level.
New hitting coach?
Couldn’t agree more. You can see the change in philosophy, better at-bats, better approach. I’m not one to blame the coaching often, the players play. But the coaching has to lead and put the players in the best opportunity to succeed and I don’t think Turner Ward was doing that. The offense looks completely different now with new leadership and essentially the same players.
The starting pitchers have 11 losses in 44 games. Last season SP’rs had 55 total losses. It’s the same guys on the mound. Do the math.
JJ – starting pitching has been the biggest turnover area. Instead of a half season of Pallante, we now potentially get a full one. Instead of 1/3 season of Fedde, we may get a full one. Instead of 1 or 2 starts by Liberatore, we now may get a full season of them. Gray and Mikolas are the constants. Matz also may end up with a similar number of starts.
I would add that there is a psychological component. For years and years Cardinal ownership and front office claimed they were contenders and expected to be in the playoffs (even if sometimes their actions didn’t back it up.) The fans expected even more. I think those kind of constant expectations bring responsibility and pressure to the players, especially younger players.
This year the expectations were lowered by ownership and the front office. No matter what nomenclature they used the message was “we aren’t going to officially say we aren’t trying to compete but to be honest we aren’t trying to compete.” They backed that up by spending a total of $2M in the offseason on a setup reliever (Maton).
I think those lowered expectations have reduced the pressure on most of the players and allowed them to play relaxed without having the weight of the world on them. The two exceptions are Gorman and Walker of course.
Caution here folks.
We are only about 1/4 of the way through the season. One losing streak and who knows, we might be 37-50 at the All Star Break.
The glory days aren’t back yet…….
As long as the trade chips keep this up, sell. Buying w/Mo at the helm should be avoided, even if Bill would let him. Mo could do future years of damage. Sell, so Bloom can be in charge of the player return. Get as fresh as start in 2026 as possible. Dump-diddy-dump! don’t pretend to be contenders.
In my view, the simple answer is the nice turns we’ve been seeing from the rotation. In the 7 turns prior to yesterday’s second game of the DH’er, the rotation had only allowed 6 ER’s in 46.2 innings of work. The BP’s been good too, but they don’t factor in much at all unless the members of the 5 man give the team a chance. In any case, success begins and ends with the SP’ing, same as it’s always been.
I hear what your saying JJ but can you imagine the scenario if the Cardinals and Cubs are tied for first place with one week before the trade deadline? The Cardinals trade away Arenado, Helsley, Matz, and Fedde while the Cubs trade for a big bat and starter. Cardinal Nation will not be happy.
Rats, I like your take! I seem to recall about tbis time of year last year we played well for about a month and the talk sounded similar to what is happening now!
What has happened this year is we found some solid pieces for the rebuild
Noot, Herrera, Scott, Donovan, Burleson, Graffeco and IMO McGreevey and Saggese even though tbey reside in Memphis!We have also figured out a couple Walker and Gorman who can’t! I agree with Jj that we should still be focused on the future! So hard to know what to do at trade deadline tbis year but I don’t trust Mo at all so maybe just stand Pat and see what happens!
In the meantime I am happy again to turn my TV on and routing for a team that is currently overachieving and in the race!
I hear what your saying JJ but can you imagine the scenario if the Cardinals and Cubs are tied for first place with one week before the trade deadline? The Cardinals trade away Arenado, Helsley, Matz, and Fedde while the Cubs trade for a big bat and starter. Cardinal Nation will not be happy.
The least they can do in that case is NOT trade Fedde and Helsley.
The least they can do in that case is NOT trade Fedde and Helsley.
Who in their right mind would want Gorman starting at 3B over Arenado right now? Gorman and Walker shouldn’t even be on the roster. If we are tied for first in late July I’m not trading any of the vets. Worst case is you stand pat.
Judging by attendance, there won’t be many dissapointed GS. Take another 5yrs to rebuild and the majority will be hangry.
We’ve gotta stop sending Gorman and/or Walker out there every day to throw cold water on the sparks. If we’re really going to “reset,” let’s start with them.
I don’t think anyone expects them to be buyers at the deadline no matter what. Sure, they could take on a decent bullpen guy or a reserve outfielder like they did with Pham last season. More than likely though, they are either selling or standing pat. If they are playing good baseball and leading the division or within 3 games of the lead, standing pat is the right move. Any further back and they really should be sellers – at least mild sellers with guys like Helsley and Fedde and Matz and Maton who are in the final year of their deal. I would still expect the latter to be the case despite the really good play recently. Hopefully they’ll win another 10 or so in a row though and make all of us who doubted them look like fools.
Obviously they’ll try to bolster their chances if they’re seriously contending for an NLC crown at the deadline. If that’s the case they may actually make an attempt to add the type of reinforcement that could make a genuine difference. It may be a bat, or it may be an arm depending on what the situation dictates nearing the deadline. They’re not going to sell off anything but overpriced beer and hot dogs if they think they have a legitimate chance to win their division. In the case of having some sort of a chance at a WC berth, they’ll at least do something that creates the impression that they made some sort of an effort to shore up an area perceived as weak enough to prevent access to the post-season. Probably something along the lines of a Tommy Pham, or even Manny Motter…
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