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I’d like to hear some thoughts on why the Cards do so poorly at signing Free Agents?
I will start with some positives (although I am certain I will exclude some names , both good and bad)
Positives in last 10-20 years
Mikolas
Beltran
Berkman
Oh (his first year was very good)Negatives
Cecil
Fowler
Holland
Verhagen (although he is one of many reliever busts signed prior to this season including Wittgren, Brooks, etc)
Carpenter, Dejong, and CMart (although they are in the category of bad resigning)It’s simple really, they only go for the second tier guys because Junior likes his money. When you sign average guys you get average performance. They need to sign Harper, Turner, Bogarts, etc. or do not sign anyone. Use Memphis as the pipeline and hold your nose.
The resources are not available to go after the real big names. The last prime free agent the Cardinals signed was probably Matt Holliday.
The 2022 Forbes data on MLB clubs had the Cardinals Operating income at ($34M). So while the club’s value is fairly high for a mid-market team (although about half of what the Dodgers are worth), they were in the red as far as operating income.
It’s always easy for us in the “peanut gallery” to assume MLB clubs have tons of cash and can freely spend. But the reality is such that this is not always the case.
Operating Income is usually defined as income before interest, taxes and depreciation – thus it is a true measure of earnings from your operations, and excludes accounting transactions. I do not know how much the Cardinals received in luxury tax compensation. They may have received more in luxury tax than they had as expenses in other taxes and amortization, which would put them in the black as far as net income.
Still though, if we assume the Forbes data is reasonably accurate the Cardinals do not generate boatloads of surplus cash. Thus they have to be on a bit of a tight budget when it comes to player costs.
BikeMike –
One of the best posts I’ve seen
on here. Of course the disgruntled will say that BDW should pay more out of his own pocket to produce a WS Champ. Naive stuff like that.By the way, I believe operating income is before interest and taxes, but after depreciation and amortization deductions.
To get back on topic about the players, rather than posters….
The real expensive players carry the most risk, due to salary.
That’s very true, jj. Mo is an accountant by education and also gets involved in finance. He measures things in Return on Investment. He tries to get the highest value for the lowest cost to produce the highest ROI. His biggest nightmare would be to sign a pitcher to a $300 million contact and then have that pitcher blow his arm out.
While BikeMike reported Forbes numbers for 2022, we should also remember the COVID impact killed operating income – in the short-term only. Just two years ago, back in 2020, their operating income was estimated at $72 million (almost $100 MM more than 2022) after it was $69 MM the year before. It was never less than $40 MM in the prior decade. That is a better reflection of the normal financial picture of the team.
I would imagine this data excludes non-team connected projects such as BPV.
In Forbes’ estimation, even in the down time of COVID, the asset appreciated 9% this past year. The Cards are the seventh-most valuable team in MLB (with the 16th largest player payroll).
Of course, these are all estimates. As we don’t know the real details of the team’s inner financial workings, which are surely very complicated, no one can say with any certainty that they cannot afford to spend more on player acquisition. That they choose not to is not debatable, however.
Another factor is how much they want to reserve for adding players during the season, especially at the deadline.
They’re smart about it. They feel like they have enough strength right now to win the division, but with some injuries they know they may have to add some assets to be strong enough to go deeper into October this coming season.Yes, the money is there and plenty of it, Junior just values his cash more than the WS. I’ve learned to live with the fact they will never be a serious WS contender but it is still frustrating.
Holliday was certainly a top-tier FA, but I’m sure most are aware the Redbirds traded 3 unknowns to the A’s to place him in a Redbird uniform prior to the trade deadline in ’09. Holliday hit .353 with 13 HR’s and 55 RBI’s in a little over 2 months during that season for the Cardinals. The Redbirds were thus able to thoroughly test drive their prospective new car, so to speak, before signing him to a 7 year deal in the winter of that off-season. His case was a little different than signing a FA from another team after the player had filed at the end of a season.
Although I enjoy poking a bit of fun and even some legitimate criticism in the direction of the Cardinal bosses, I disagree with any assertion that my favorite team will never be a serious a WS contender. They contend almost every season. In my estimation, if a ballclub can qualify for post-season play, they certainly have a chance at a WS Championship. I saw it happen in both ’06 and ’11, and I believe I’ll see it happen again. They win it all in ’23…Haha!
Very nice post, 1TD.
Nathan – I know BDW and he wants to win another World Championship as much as anyone on this forum does.
He’s just rational about it and realizes that building with guys who have played together coming through the system is a good way to go as part of the overall plan. Trading for players like Goldy and Nado is also part of that plan. And he feels as a businessman that expenses should be in line with revenues.Some folks out there think we should feel sorry for poor Mr. DeWitt, under such money pressure, facing such dilemmata over the Cardinal budget and spending on players. Come off it please! The guy is rolling in dough. It’s only a question of priorities, deciding where he wants to spend that money. The reality is, he has other projects dearer to his heart than the St. Louis Cardinals. Which is his perfect right. It’s not that he can’t throw more money at the free agent market, it’s that he simply doesn’t want to. And how much more would he make if the Cardinals win the World Series anyway?
To answer the original question as to why we tend to fail at free agent signings the answer is we shop on the bargain bins, as has been mentioned. Contreras was a shift in philosophy and hopefully the results will be fruitful.
As for the Cardinals not being able to afford top level free agents I find that extremely hard to believe. It is true that the Cardinals are not going to routinely spend like the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Phillies, and other large market teams, but every few years the Cardinals could splurge on a pricey free agent.
Cot’s currently has the Cardinals at $40M below the CBT threshold. $40M/year would fetch a decent player in my estimation. Are we really saying that if the Cardinals would lose money if they spent up to the CBT line? I am going to be skeptical about that.
As I stated the Cards aren’t going to spend with the huge markets but what about teams like the Braves and Padres? Why are we being outspent by them? That doesn’t make sense to me. And before someone says that Atlanta and San Diego are larger cities than St. Louis I would respond that market size is not solely determined by population within city limits. You have to also consider metro areas. The city of St. Louis is ranked 70th in the country by population but the St. Louis metro area is ranked 21st in the country. Also, the Cardinals draw from a large area of several states. I just have a hard time believing the Braves and Padres are bringing in that much more revenue than the Cardinals. The Padres currently have a payroll of $242M, the Braves at $193M, and the Cardinals at $171M.
Spending huge sums of money doesn’t guarantee success but the Cardinals could afford an expensive free agent if they wanted to. As Brian stated a few days ago, there is a difference between “can’t” and won’t.”
Serious WS contender? Maybe but they will need the luck and the ACE of 2006 which was not a good team or the ACE they had in 2011 to win. Contenders most years sure…serious contenders not so much. Playoffs results have been bad lately. Keep doing what they are doing you know maybe the blind squirrel will get lucky one year. It is great to have regular season success but ending the year with a resounding thud is getting old.
I entirely agree that this past season ended with what you termed a “resounding thud”, Oliver. No question that it was tremendously disappointing. I genuinely thought they had a really good chance to make a deep drive into the post-season with the guys they had. However, it will always be my view that the lack of an ace type SP’er had no effect on the early exit. The bats (and we had some good ones) simply disappeared at the most inopportune time. I also have to say that I don’t ever recall the poor decisions (and there were several of them) of a Cardinal field manager having such a direct impact on a Redbird loss in the post-season as the catastrophe that unfolded in last season’s NLWC. At any rate, he’ll get a chance to atone starting in about three months. If he doesn’t, I feel his livelihood is in jeopardy.
Holland is a good example of them spending money, but is also a good example of why you don’t sign old relievers…though fans at the time were clamoring for a closer type at least only a 1 year deal
Trevor Miller is another example of this though he was good the first year then not so good after that year and injured a lot.
Pat Neshek could be the counter though to the old relievers, but he was not a hard thrower, that was a very good bullpen signing, should have resigned him b/c he didn’t make much and was productive.
Ver Hagen makes $3 mill a year at most,….I would say they took a flyer….they should have learned from Holland and Miller but at least he didn’t cost much, if guy would throw his slider 95% of the time and stay healthy he might be OK.
Cecil….was a terrible signing
They signed Fowler b/ c they desperately needed a lead off man….guy just fell off a cliff
De Jong signing was bad the last 2 years and probably will be bad this upcoming but at the time it is similar to what the braves do with their young players, didn’t work out, but it’s not ridiculous money at least
CMart wasn’t on huge $ either and he was pretty good for part of the contract fell off at the end when he got hurt…
Don’t think the move from a starter to the bullpen was a real good idea on him seemed his arm never recoveredCarpenter no clue why they resigned him when he was struggling so badly when they did the extension
On the other hand:
Mikolas has been a very good addition, eats innings and is a solid pitcher
Not sure you win the 2011 World Series w/o Berkman so that was a huge signing.
Beltran was a very good signingJohnny Peralta was a meh signing pretty solid the first 2 years not much his last 2 years, probably overpaid with the last 2 years being down
The good they don’t sign a ton of free agents and no high dollar ones….their track record is probably middle of the road
Once again (for the redundant 20th or so time), the Cardinals like to test drive before buying a car. They want to see how a player is as a teammate, with the manager and coaches, the front office and the fans before making a huge investment. When they stepped out of that business model with Leake, Fowler, Miller, Cecil, etc. it bit them. They weren’t a good fit for the Cardinals.
My favorite FA signing by Johnny is Lance Berkman. They won a WS during the season the Cardinals signed him and they don’t win that year without him. I still think he was the most consistent bat throughout the ’11 post-season. Berky could hit.
Naive stuff like that.
@bccran – Must you constantly make snide comments like this?Once again (for the redundant 20th or so time), the Cardinals like to test drive before buying a car.
And yet they signed Contreras, which disproves your point.
To answer the original question as to why we tend to fail at free agent signings the answer is we shop on the bargain bins, as has been mentioned. Contreras was a shift in philosophy and hopefully the results will be fruitful.
Yes, it was refreshing to see them shop at the top of the free agent market. We’ll see if this was a one-off or a shift in organizational strategy.
I’m not sure it was so much of a shift. They signed Fowler for 5 years at well over $80MM. I genuinely believe Contreras will pan out favorably for the Cardinals. It’s my view that he was the best option to satisfy an obvious need. On the other end of the proverbial spectrum, if I’d have been within striking distance at the instant Dexter Fowler was going to place his signature on that 5 year contract, I would have have attempted to put a flamethrower to the paper it was printed on. I’ve had no idea as to how most of the Cardinal FA signings were going to work out, but I was convinced that signing Dexter Fowler was going to be a veritable disaster long before it ever happened.
“Yes, the money is there and plenty of it, Junior just values his cash more than the WS.”
To be fair, I think I’d also rather have fifty million bucks than watch the Cards win the World Series. 😉
Anyway, the answer to the original question is, their scouting and analytical departments have let them down on numerous occasions. I don’t think it’s more complicated than that.
Take Mike Leake. He came to St. Louis as a so-so pitcher who everyone expected might improve under the guidance of Yadier Molina. Then it turned out Mike Leake was the one pitcher in baseball who persistently thought he knew better than Yadi, and shook him off time after time after time. There’s a word for that.
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