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Given the unexpected demise of 2023, I am looking towards our 2024 minor league rotations:
(barring injuries, trades and promotions, of course.)
Memphis
Kloffenstein
Robberse
Mcgreevy
Graceffo
Liberatore/Woodford/??Springfield
Hence
Roby
Bedell
Rajcic
Cornwell
Baker??Limbo Lunn Perreira
Peoria
Paniaugua
Hansen
Mautz
Hjerpe
Rincon
Baker??limbo Mils
Palm Beach
Arias
Quinn
Lin
Davila
SequeraSaladin??
Salas??I really like this group. And I am not including enough pitchers drafted in 2023, which will be factors as well.
Rom can be changed places with Woodford/Liberatore. Thompson looks likely to be in the Lou to me. I would non tender Hudson, and move Thomas to the bullpen, probably outright him.
I think you’re close 27. And yes, that’s a pretty good looking group. Throw in Harrison, Savacool, and Henderson from the ‘23 draft, along with potentially Alec Willis and definitely Zach Showalter (who you missed above) and we finally have some bench strength.
Pereira will probably be gone as he’s a minor league free agent (again, last year he resigned). Lunn is probably still in the mix at Springfield because he was better this year and I just don’t see him as a BP guy. I agree that Mills is likely out as a starter. And I think Baker might be better in the BP where he at least has a shot of making it long-term.
Personally, I’d keep Hudson in the Memphis rotation as a fill-in, but I understand the difference of opinion there. I think Liberatore needs to stay in the BP and I agree that Woodford and Rom are interchangeable. Thanks for sketching this out.
I think that among the problems the Cardinals have with the pitching at the top of the development system is too many guys who are spinning their wheels clogging things up, burning the AAA rotation reps with limited realistic prospects of being of much help in the ML rotation. Guys in that catagory are Liberatore, Woodford, Hudson, Thomas, Thompson, Rom, and it looks like maybe McGreevy and Graceffo. Yeah, any of them could end up panning out and being more than marginal, but it is seeming unlikely. That is a lot of long shots, some seem to be turning into professional hang arounds, and none are lighting any fires.
Some will be back. Again. But I have my fingers crossed that Mo will bring in plenty of new blood at that level, unlikely though it may be. There is only so much room for guys we stubbornly refuse to give up on.
Bling, so it’s your opinion that because McGreevey and Graceffo weren’t lights out in their 2nd full season as professional pitchers that they need to be jettisoned by the organization?
Good post, C27. Lots of options.
bling, from where do you think the Cardinals can get better Triple-A starters than McGreevy, Graceffo and the like?
Let’s review the possibilities…
Minor league free agency? Not likely to find that kind of quality not already protected on 40-man rosters. Only very rarely are six-year free agents aged 25 or younger.
Trades? Seems to me they should/will focus on acquiring MLB pitchers, not get more for Triple-A. At least we all hope so (except you, perhaps).
No matter who the Cards have, it seems you want them to get someone else.
P.S. Refresh your memory about the minor league pitchers they already have in these two well-researched posts by Bob Reed.
https://thecardinalnation.com/forums/topic/drew-rom/#post-232116 (post 232116)
https://thecardinalnation.com/forums/topic/baker-and-allen-craig/page/2/ (scroll down to post 233149)
I mentioned McGreevy and Graceffo seperately, qualifying their inclusion with both “it looks like” and “maybe”. I am not sure what else is expected, other than pushing my head into the sand and not mentioning the wall they seem to have hit at AAA. I will leave that to others. As I also said, any of them could pan out, but my fear is that the org will be true to form, and they will be pushed up never having established dominance at AAA, like Liberatore, Thompson and Rom, and will spend a couple seasons spinning their wheels in and out of the ML rotation turning in short starts and erratic performance.
McGreevey was the 8th best pitcher in the International league by ERA and 9th best by WHIP among all qualifying pitchers. And that was in his first season there after 1 season total as a professional. I’m just not sure how much better you expect him to be? And Graceffo was hurt for half a year. It took the great Adam Wainwright 5 or 6 seasons in the minors to get promoted to the MLB (and that was only to the bullpen). Just because a guy struggles at a young age against guys with years more experience doesn’t mean that he is ho hum and we should move on.
I understand if the frustration you stated was for Tommy Parsons who was holding down a spot at AAA for what seemed like forever as a blocker. But you didn’t mention him because you always liked him (and he’s gone now anyway). And I guess I can see that applying to Woodford who the Cardinals just are never quite sure what to do with. But those other pitchers are still very young and getting better. And they were the best choice to be at AAA because we had no depth behind them. That was the mistake the Cardinals made. They failed to draft quality starters for a few years and they traded away a few that they had in the one track mind of acquiring a big bat. Now, I’m a little afraid they could do the opposite in a one track mind of acquiring an ace. But we’ll see.
Either way, have patience with the young guys. If they are young for their age and struggling, that’s really not a bad thing at all. Typically, guys keep getting better until around age 27-29. So when they are 21, 22, or 23 in AAA, that’s a great thing even if they can’t dominate yet.
bling said:
“But I have my fingers crossed that Mo will bring in plenty of new blood at that level…”
You did not answer my question about the above so I will re-ask it. How do you propose the Cardinals acquire better Triple-A pitchers than the ones they have?
If Mo is at a loss about that, I would suggest studying how Miami acquired Zac Gallen, just as an example.
Brian, at this point – things being as they are – isn’t the only way for the Cardinals to immediately restock AAA through the trade route?
Their draft strategy the past few years (based on reading this board) seems to be how we got to this point; so, longer term maybe use a more balanced draft and short term trade some surplus bats for arms?
At the TDL the Cards went mainly arms for arms and seem to have added a few good prospects.
ZTR, wouldn’t you rather have the Cardinals focused on acquiring MLB pitchers in trade, rather than Triple-A ones?
The trade deadline was a very different scenario. They were dumping MLB pitchers and used the trades to build minor league depth.
This is not comparable to this offseason. The priority now will be to get immediate MLB help for the rotation and bullpen via trade and free agency. Triple-A will not be a high priority, nor should it be, IMO. As others pointed out above, the guys they already have are pretty good comparatively.
bling said:
If Mo is at a loss about that, I would suggest studying how Miami acquired Zac Gallen, just as an example.
You are not speaking with Mo, you are replying to me. And yes, I am at a loss or I wouldn’t have asked twice.
So, your proposal is for the Cardinals to trade an established MLB hitting star for prospect pitchers.
Today’s closest equivalent of the Ozuna trade you are citing as the model to follow would be to deal away Arenado, Goldy or Contreras, targeting prospects who are not yet quite ready to contribute at the MLB level. That suggests a rebuild, which does not seem to be the path the Cardinals are on.
If that is what you mean, why can’t you just say it?
P.S. Just in case you try to suggest Ozuna was not an established star, with Miami he was a two-time National League All-Star, won a Silver Slugger Award and a Gold Glove Award. The only Cardinals hitters with that kind of resume are the three I named above. You need a big name to get top talent. Maybe Willson is closest but he comes with a huge contract commitment that Ozuna didn’t have. And all three have full no-trade protection…
You asked how and I supplied an example. I recognize that you dislike tapping the brakes on the touts and do not like contemplating the potential gains to be had by dangling the bronze busts. I think Mo is of like mind, unfortunately.
I have previously speculated that we are over optimistic about the pitching upgrades we will see this winter, and without serious depth upgrades, attrition will bring to the forefront the same cast of dubious characters we have this year.
We agree on the need for pitching upgrades, but I firmly believe the focus should be on rebuilding the MLB staff, not on Triple-A. That is where we disagree. If they do not follow through on their stated intent to add three starters, they should be lambasted. They’ve already divulged their plan.
P.S. I am also at a loss as to what “tapping the brakes on the touts” mean…
Maybe the stated intent has gained some focus. Three innings eaters maybe. Not sure what else to make of ‘innings depth’ if it pertains only to the ML level. I had hoped the plan was to seriously reduce vulnerability to attrition, but maybe not.
We will have to see. It would be great if they could accomplish everything, though I do think you sell the existing Triple-A pitchers short. With more experience, some of them could serve as that Triple-A depth, joining the Hudsons, Liberatores, Woodfords and Roms they already have, who would conceivably be pushed out of the rotation by new acquisitions.
I would tender a contract to Hudson even if we aren’t counting on him to be a full time rotation piece. He is going to make a relative pittance next year (around $3.5M) and is a solid depth choice. To me he has a higher ceiling for 2024 than most of our other depth pieces and will cost about what we are paying VerHagen this year.
I noticed that Cardinals27 left Brandon Komer out of his ’24 rotation predictions. Not only has Komer been Springfield’s most consistent stater in the second half of the season but also he was selected to pitch last night’s elimination game against Arkansas in the Texas League’s playoff game in which he got the win pitching 6.2inn and gave up only 1 run striking out 9.
I know the pedigree is not there (SD’s 13th round pick in ’19) but maybe we have something here. I would at least put him in the rotation mix at Memphis next season and also include Hence in the mix there also. Although there’s a jam up for the starters job at AAA a couple of those starters could win STL’s spots either starting or in the bullpen.
Komar shouldn’t be in Cards long term plans. But he will likely get a chance when an injury occurs. Or he can be moved to the bullpen.
Also, Showalter may be in Palm Beach rotation next year.
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