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Not positive but the 4th option year that Sosa has goes away after this year even if not used by being kept on the major league roster.
CC – I’m going to have to get on board with more sophisticated statistics/analytics. My thoughts have been a combination of slugging percentage and on base percentage is a fairly good measure. Will have to study up on “wrc+”. See what else that brings to the table. See what knowledgeable analysts are using.
I’M still an old school person with using traditional stats like OBP, SLG, homers, rbi’s avg, etc. I also think defense is important and do not want to sacrifice it for offense. I believe Sosa is a better prospect than Urias, as Urias’ arm is not as strong, and lacks range, making it more difficult to play on the left side of the infield. But Jonny Peralta played shortstop, who had similar defense. In addition, I do not see how accurate projections can be. Perhaps if a hitter is moving to/from Coors field I can see changes possible. Or possibly a left handed hitter moving to Boston, or New York would improve home run numbers.
Bccrn – the simplistic view is that wrc+ values obp more than slg as obp has shown to be more responsible for creating runs. The + signifies that it is park adjusted. Prior to ever having heard of wrc I once read that the A’s used an internal formula for adjusting OPS that valued OBP at basically twice Slg%.
27 – projection systems have become pretty sophisticated. They use past history (including recent minor league stats) to project future results. Accurate? You have a better system?
In winter ball action recently concluded, Sosa (in the DR) had 100 points more of OPS than Urias (in Mexico) and Sosa topped Urias in all three slash categories (BA/OBP/SLG).
The + signifies that it is park adjusted.
With the caveat that it is only park adjusted for major league numbers. At Fangraphs, they adjust for league for minor league stats.
Projections for veteran players seem like guesses to me. And, unless you’re in a front office making player decisions, there is no penalty for being wrong. Now projections on younger players (prospects) are very interesting. There are intangibles like hustle, work ethic, and timeliness that might bump a player beyond their ceiling.
CC wrote:
Really Brian? So now we are going to use Winter ball stats for judging player’s prospect status?
You can ignore these facts or interpret them as you choose. It doesn’t change their existence.
27 – I’m old school too, and the more I think about it the more it’s probably best for me to stay that way. BA, OBP, Slg. %, OPS, doubles, triples, HRs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases, stolen base %, Ks, Ws, etc. are all I really need to know on the offense side of the equation. Those stats have provided me data for reasonably good projections in the past, so I think it’s wise to stay with them.
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