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When speedster Victor Scott II was promoted from Peoria to Springfield in late June, I thought it was a miscalculation by the Cardinal front office. Except for his baserunning he was hardly dominating High-A at the time (.282 average, sub-.400 slugging). But Scott got off to a blistering extended start in AA, batting .350/.396/.439 through August 4th. So I felt like an arrogant dummy.
Then Scott hit the skids. From 8/5 to 8/16 he went 4-for-33. And with just 2 walks and 8 K’s. And moreover, by August 16th he’d also gone nearly 70 trips to the plate since his last extra base knock. So maybe I’m only arrogant and not a dummy, I thought.
But today I’m happy to report I look like a dummy again. From 8/17 to 9/17, here’s Victor’s line:
.349/.399/.548 with 14 XBHs in 28 games (138 PAs). While striking out just 13% of the time. Very exciting to see him simultaneously adding power and reducing the whiffs. It’s the best possible sign. Good thing nobody asked me about that Double-A promotion.
I hope we have our next center fielder/ lead off man. Plus he has driven in 60. Not bad for a lead off man.
Red flag on Scott is his seriously declining walk rate. Strong 16.9% last season, dropped to 9.1% at Peoria and just 5.8% at Springfield. Needs more time.
Not if you actually look at the numbers. Winn’s BB rate at Double-A was 12.4% compared to Scott at 5.8% at the same level. Pretty significant difference. Winn’s walk rate was 8.8% at Memphis. Clearly, the rate of decline is less significant, though we don’t know how Scott will fare there yet. Hopefully he can reverse the trend.
It would have been great if Winn’s 8.8% Triple-A walk rate was higher before he was called up, but his standout tool is his defense, which is MLB ready. The biggest hope for Scott is that he can become a base-stealing leadoff man. Not walking is an inhibitor to him reaching that goal. I am just pointing out the need to address this before getting excited about him in MLB.
But you knew that. Just stirring things up as usual.
P.S. A comparison. Edman’s walk rate at Double-A and Triple-A was in the 7-8% range, which is pretty much how his MLB career has played out so far. Great at stealing, but not enough OBP to consistently deliver at the top of the order. That is the risk I see with Scott if he doesn’t improve.
Same with Bader. Double-A and Triple-A BB rates at 7%, and he was very consistent year-to-year. Scott showed he could take a walk when in A-ball. Perhaps he can get back to what he was doing then.
I always think Scott is a righty, which makes me less excited for his future. Then I look at his page and realize he is a lefty and figure he could be a useful CFer. He’s hitting .324 against lefties this year, which is encouraging to see as well. Ray Lankford-esque if he grows into a little more power?
I had in mind Winn’s bb trend continuing down to concerning levels as he has advanced, which is the point discuss with Scott. Presently Winn’s bb rate is about 5%. Similarly to Scott, as you say, it impacts his potential in the lineup unless it gets fixed. Of course, Winn could bat 9th forever and still be a good player, but then that might apply to Scott as well.
I don’t want power and homeruns and slug slug slug from this guy. I want his batting average to stay up there so he can get on base and steal bases and be a catalyst.
I am tired of everybody seemingly worried about how many homeruns somebody might hit. It’s nothing but slug slug slug nowadays. We are missing a great game. Somebody wrote a book about that years ago.
r/Esteemed Rat
It would have been great if Winn’s 8.8% Triple-A walk rate was higher before he was called up, but his standout tool is his defense, which is MLB ready.
Unfortunately, his bat is definitely not MLB ready. He has produced -0.6 WAR so far, in 89 PA
I agree rat. Donovan is a good example of the ridiculous extremes they go to. In 2022 he was a perfect lead off hitter, exactly what we need. Almost .400 OBP. But it was observed that his OBP exceeded his SLG, so he spent last winter trying to fix it. Early this season he struggled to get on base and lost the lead off job. He did hit more homers, but not enough for the middle of the order, so he was down in the order. Then he got hurt. We went all year short of top of the order hitters and had to move Goldy out of his 3 slot. Mo’s dipshitz.
I would be happy if Victor Scott is the next Vince Coleman. Is that asking too much?
I am dreaming of 1985:
Scott = Vince Coleman
Winn= Ozzie Smith
Donovan= Tommy Herr
Goldy= Jack Clark
Nootbaar= Andy Van Slyke
Helsley= Todd WorrellHey, it’s a start.
“I would be happy if Victor Scott is the next Vince Coleman. Is that asking too much?”
I don’t think it’s all that unlikely that Victor could be a Vince Coleman type — but who plays an above average center field. I’d say that’s roughly his 75th percentile outcome. And that’s a 3-4 WAR ballplayer depending on durability.
For some context, when Vince Coleman was 22 years old he was already in Triple-A, but he hit just .257/.323/.334 with a 55/112 BB/K in 671 trips to the plate. (League average OPS was nearly 100 points higher than that.) He played 152(!) games and pilfered 101 bases in 137 tries.
So I’d say VS2 is slightly more advanced in general than Vince was back then. More polish on the basepaths, more pop at the plate. (But as Brian stated, Victor absolutely should NOT be rushed to MLB, as his patience needs a boost first.)
“I am tired of everybody seemingly worried about how many homeruns somebody might hit. It’s nothing but slug slug slug nowadays. We are missing a great game.”
Agreed, sir. But if Victor can have average power without undermining his batting average — as he’s done so incredibly well over the past month — then all the better.
Mid like to see Antico as our 4th outfielder. With Scott also the 2would be a force on the base paths. If only Antico can hit enough.
What I want to know is, whatever happened to Victor Scott I??
Okay, seriously folks, love what VS2 is doing. And would love to see a semi-1980s type guy in our lineup. We sorely need a catalyst; an athlete that can get on base and run. Put him and Winn together and maybe we can “win” together!
No way I want Palacios as a 4th outfielder unless injuries are involved. We sure need pitching and outfield upgrades though. But Palacios is AAAA at best.
What I want to know is, whatever happened to Victor Scott l??
Victor Dwanyne “Scooter” Scott ll. Great question, BicycleMike. Victor Demetrius “Spider” Scott l is still alive and kicking……..and considering this family’s physical pedigree, he’s probably sprinting down the street or track like some madman as we speak. Both of our Victor’s parents (Victor & Mary) were on the track team at Morris Brown college. If Victor ll marries right, then Ricky Henderson’s base stealing records could certainly be in jeopardy down the road.
Sounds like our own Victor II, or as is often referred to, Victor Junior, has some terrific pedigree. Let’s hope the young lad joins “Junior” Walker and Masyn Winn I as state of a future Cardinal pennant winner.
I’m curious to see if Scott can repeat his 2023. Saggesse I also want to see what position he will play, or will he be a utility guy, or possibly a trade chip?
Me too on Saggese, Cardinals27. But I don’t think we’ll see him dealt this off season. Saggese, Gorman, Winn and Walker are extremely unlikely to be traded……..with an asterisk on Burleson too. Mark my words, there’s a 90% chance that none of the above 4 players will be changing uniforms this winter and about a 70% chance of Burleson staying put. These guys are the core of the nest egg and thus will not be moved.
Speaking of Burly – too bad on the thumb injury. I don’t understand why so many guys slide head first. Always seems like it is a high risk of injury. Maybe the appeal is you can get a hand on the bag quicker and avoid the tag easier than getting a foot to the bag in the feet-first slide. But you really put yourself in harms way with the arms extended.
Some guys wear some sort of hand armor when running the bases. Not sure if that’s just if they are already nursing an injury or to prevent injury when sliding in.
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