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What are the chances that Bloom will take a flyer on DFA pitchers Seth Martiez (Red Sox) or Trevor Martin (Tampa Bay)? Our bullpen could use some help!
Guess at least part of that question has been answered!
08/14/26 – Boston Red Sox sent RHP Seth Martinez outright to Worcester Red Sox.Too late on Martin, too!
08/15/26 – Los Angeles Angels optioned RHP Trevor Martin to Salt Lake Bees.I liked Evan Sisk pitching when he pitched for Springfield. Since then, he has went on to forge a decent to good MLB career. Thesevdays when posting sub 3 eras you are way above average. We traded him away for JA Happ. I am sure glad that we aren’t trading over the hill veterans for prospects any more. I know that Sisk isn’t the best thing since sliced bread. But he is a serviceable good reliever. I guess we have to be patient while the Mottar, Shusters, and Zimmermans patch holes while we wait for our kids to develop.
2027 is probably going to be another stopgap year although hopefully we will push a little harder than this year. 2028 is when we should be ready to compete. So if we are looking at stopgaps for the 2027 roster the Yankees have two that might work.
Ryan McMahon at 3B is someone I have thought about. Now you might ask why would we want him and his .649 OPS since Blaze Jordan could do that? There are two reasons. First, he is only under contract for 2027 so he could hold the position until someone like Jesus Baez is ready in 2028 or perhaps we spend money on a larger upgrade. He also is elite defensively. An infield of McMahon, Winn, Wetherholt, and Burleson might be the best defensive infield on all of MLB.
The second reason I would go after him is that I think the Yankees would like to get his salary off the books in 2027 and we might entice them to include Will Warren in a deal. Warren is not going to ever win a Cy Young award but he still has four years of cheap control remaining and is a solid mid-rotation guy in the mold of Pallante and Leahy. I am not sure who we would have to give up to get those guys. The Yankees are probably looking for MLB ready players instead of prospects so I don’t know if we would match up well. They might have interest in Herrera but probably not Liberatore.
We also need a stopgap in CF but I haven’t figured that one out yet. I had first thought of Luis Robert but he seems beyond repair.
I agree with gscottar that the Cards likely won’t be swinging for the fences in 2027, but hope that they will at least not being actively trying to lose. Of course, adding veteran free agents in 2028 rather than next year is a move to try, but the question always remains as to whether it’s a good strategy or not. Without looking deeply at the next couple of free agent classes, it may be that the needs we have will be better filled this off season rather than next. Hopefully Chaim and company can pull off some good moves.
I would not be surprised if they signed a starting pitcher like May to a one year deal and trade them at the deadline. It worked this year! So much unknown with the new CBA and how any rules will be changed!
My guess is that any moves heading into 2027 will be trades and relatively inexpensive veterans on one-year contracts. I don’t think their full financial appetite will return in the next six months.
It’s very possible. I think that the majority of the money they sent out for Gray, Contreras and Arenado came out this year, so I’m hopeful that they may consider being a little more aggressive this year. I doubt they pick up the options for Stanek or Urias. Some money will go to the newly arb eligible guys, especially Walker, Winn and Herrera. Gorman will likely leave the books and not be tendered for Arb2, and perhaps Liberatore as well. Hopefully they will make a couple of smart moves with a look to the future.
I’m not asking that they eat filet mignon, but I’d also prefer the fare to not be gas station hot dogs.
They will owe $13 million to Contreras and Arenado next year plus likely $500k to buy out Urias. If they don’t pick up options on Stanek and Urias (both probably unlikely) and Gorman is let go, I think they’ll be around $75 million in salary counting all the arbitration eligible guys. Maybe $80 million. I would think that gives them at least $30-$40 million to spend as additional dollars in 2027. Maybe more if there becomes a salary floor. That still keeps them well under what they used to spend on Major League salaries.
I’m thinking another reclamation starting pitcher like May for $15 million and a reclamation 3B or CF guy for another $15 million plus a bullpen veteran arm probably from the left side. All on 1-year deals.
We could also see a trade for a longer term asset should the team try to move Crooks or Bernal.
jnevel said:
I would think that gives them at least $30-$40 million to spend as additional dollars in 2027.
That is a big assumption, IMO, one that has NOT been confirmed by the organization. I get the comparison to the past, but that was a different world under different conditions.
We have no idea how much they’ve lost the last few years. Are they willing to risk taking a loss in 2027? How many games will they play? etc…
My feeling is that conditions (between labor disruption and their internal development schedule) are not good for the Cards to spend in 2027. (That is only a “feeling” since none of us can see the Cardinals’ books.)
I respect the optimism, but I hope that doesn’t lead to disappointment. My personal 2027 spend expectations are low.
I don’t see the Cards spending much in 2027, unless there is a labor agreement. Maybe some low hanging fruit. A May or Urias signing.
The CBT numbers are more important because that is what any kind of floor or cap will be based on. On the CBT payroll the Cards will owe Contreras $750k and Arenado $18.6M next year. That is because of deferrals and credits.
The current CBT payroll for 2027 is $53.6M. Let’s say they have an arbitration total of $30M and another $12M in league minimum players. That puts them at $95.6M.
Their opening day payroll in 2026 was around $115M-$120M so I could see them running a $130M CBT payroll next year. That would give them $35M to spend. Some of that may go to contract extensions though.
gscottar, why do you anticipate they will spend the $35 million you calculate? Why might they not spend less than 2026 as they shift to a younger, more homegrown roster?
Every veteran they add conceivably blocks a younger player who they may want to get an extended look at. And we all know that neither 2026 nor 2027 is primarily about contending. It is about building from within.
I don’t see how we can make any estimations of what they WILL spend or even what they COULD spend when we have no visibility to their financial situation. If I understand correctly, the info above is based on bridging to 2026 and assuming payroll growth.
I don’t see how the roster could be much younger and more homegrown in 2027 than it is in 2026. The shift has already occurred. In my opinion the shift will gradually turn the other way. I am very pleased that our farm system is in much better shape but we aren’t going to win a division with 26 homegorwn players on the active roster. As the team gets closer to contention I believe it will require more external options. Assuming our year to contend is 2028 then 2027 should be a stopgap year.
I could defintiely envision a stopgap veteran at 3B, CF, and SP in 2027. That does not mean an all star on a long term contract. It means a stopgap on a most likely one year contract. Who exactly would we blocking if we brought in a 3B and CF from the outside? As we get closer to contention it is going to be less aabout runway and more about winning. I view 2026 as the year we hit bottom with the rebuild and now we are going to begin the ascent back up the hill.
Obviously there are variables regarding the CBA and work stoppage that are unknown and unpredictable but I can’t imagine we are going to stay in tear down and runway mode too much longer.
I understand your thinking but we don’t know if the Cardinals have an appetite to add stopgap players for 2027 to better compete or whether the external additions will occur later on when they are ready to actually contend.
Regarding specific positions:
3B – Are they done with Jordan and Gorman as a starter?
CF – Are they done with Scott and Church as a starter?
SP – They had good luck with May and will probably still have a need.I view each year as a stepping stone. If we want to build a 95 win team it is hard to go from 75 wins to 95 wins in one year. It is easier to gradually build up. In 2025 we won 78. In 2026 we will have a similar total but with a much younger team. I think it would be smart to strive for 85 or 86 wins in 2027 and maybe be in play for the final wild card spot. Then in 2028 we can strive for 90-95 wins.
I don’t think we will win 85 games next year by bringing back the same roster. Yes there will be some new players from Memphis arrive but how much will they move the needle?
To answer your question about the four players you mentioned I really don’t know how the Cardinals view them. I know that I don’t view any of those four as a starter on a wild card caliber team. If we are viewing 2027 as another runway year then sure they could be starters but how would that be a progression over 2026?
On the number of wins, the current team is on pace for 80 this year. I don’t see why getting to 85 or 86 next year couldn’t be accomplished with improvements from current players.
In fact, progression can come from a combination of any players on the roster, or even ones not yet there.
Regarding the stepping stone theory, it makes sense. However, until the Cardinals articulate that as their plan, it is only a good idea, one of a number of possibilities. As of yet, I am aware of any comments about what they will do next year, specifically, potentially re-ramping up spending BEFORE they are competitive.
Until they say it, I will remain skeptical. Even then, we can’t be sure until they DO it. In the past, they’ve talked about payroll increase, but from a different base than we were expecting.
Oh I agree. This is all just speculation although I must say that having a CBT payroll of $130M next year is not exactly audacious. Currently a $130M CBT payroll would be ranked 25th highest in MLB.
gscottar said:
Currently a $130M CBT payroll would be ranked 25th highest in MLB.
That raises what I find to be an interesting question. In normal times, this would suggest payrolls will be going up in 2027. But this isn’t going to be a normal off-season. With the shortened free agent period pre-lockout, it could be tough sledding for free agents. How many owners will risk increasing payroll when they don’t know how many games may be canceled? Will some owners actually cut payroll?
After past off-season work stoppages that continued into the regular season, I recall they had a very short window to finish free agent signings. That won’t be conducive to big, long-term contracts.
Of course, we don’t know the luxury tax, ceiling/floor or anything else that will govern how teams will operate.
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