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The first of my annual three-part series.
My in-depth review of the top #stlcards stories of the year is back in its 20th annual edition. Included: "Veteran Leadership Not the Answer", "Goldenado Era Ends with a Whimper", "Edman is a World Champion, Fedde is Not" and more. https://t.co/zxLHSEfEaa pic.twitter.com/nL7lNMJjdg
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 2, 2025
Most everyone makes predictions, but who comes back after the fact to self-assess the quality of the guesses? I do in this review of my #STLCards top stories of the year predictions from 12 months ago. https://t.co/5ZXO9qyvSL pic.twitter.com/Br2X6KHigD
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 4, 2025
The Cardinals won 71 in 2023. It is stated to be 70 in a couple places in the first article.
I’m in the midst of working through it, but wanted to mention that before I forgot.
Exactly so TD, and the outcome of a game in April counts the same as one in September. Its always the loser who says the season is a marathon. Winners know its 162 sprints in a row.
Yeah, I enjoyed them both and look forward to the third.
Maybe it was a foregone conclusion, but I think Bloom signing on for the long haul after last season is really the key development. Everything else follows.
The combination of the bronze busts sliding and Walker and Gorman failing was a gut punch. There is no other way to put it.
And then having one of the biggest FA signings, Contreras, going sideways from the beginning right up to now is icing on Mo’s retirement cake.
Here it is.
My predictions for what may become the top stories developing during 2025 for the #stlcards. https://t.co/7WuxjyloGa pic.twitter.com/guz5mjAPgy
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 5, 2025
I don’t diverge on anything in particular with the third article on projected stories of 2025. It does point up a potential concern though, as far as playing the youth, etc.
On the pitching side, even with two starters leaving there is basically no room in the rotation for any ‘youth’ to get a chance, unless and until somebody goes down or somebody gets traded.
The position player side seems even worse. Goldy gone is all that is different. A coupe seldom used and irrelevent bench guys are also gone. So it is the same guys that will be out there. There will be some shifting around, which sounds like rearranging the deck chairs. It seems like the bench will be different, Saggese, maybe Koperniak or a NRI guy. The daily lineup not really anything different than last year, trotting out the same guys, some at different positions.
The reality, when you put names on the lineup card, doesn’t seem as exciting as the ‘move to youth’ narrative sounds. That raises the issue of what can be accomplished, or is 2025 all about shedding payroll and waiting for it to be over.
I would add one thing to your predictions for 2025:
Attendance
1) Will this be the first year Busch Stadium III draws less than 2 million people in a non-pandemic year? I think attendance will definitely fall below 2 million in 2025.
2) Will the attendance drop cause the Cardinals to become a payee club? I give this a 50% chance, since I don’t have access to the actual attendance from last year and the season ticket cancellations so far this year.
3) If the answer to 2) is yes, can they win the draft lottery in 2026? (payee clubs can be in the lottery two years in a row, non-payee clubs cannot). Not sure on what the rule is if a non-payee club becomes a payee club.Brian, I think you are spot on with your five issues. The order could be debated but all of those issues are important.
LA also has a good point about attendance although it could be classified as revenue in general. The in game revenue is probably going to be lower and we know the tv revenue will be lower. The tv deal is also a short term fix. We still don’t know if Fan Duel will be around for the long haul.
The concern about the death spiral of lower revenue equals lower spending equals less winning is still valid.
Hypothetically, if the ‘perfect storm’ of bad things happen that hamstrings the finances (TV money, ticket sales / attendance), do we think BDW might put the team up for sale in a couple of years?
Hypothetically, if the ‘perfect storm’ of bad things happen that hamstrings the finances (TV money, ticket sales / attendance), do we think BDW might put the team up for sale in a couple of years?
I don’t know. At least three of the payee clubs received $70 million in welfare this year, and all three had payrolls below $100 million.
The club might actually have a similar profit profile with much lower risk by gaming the welfare system.
There has been idle speculation of the team being sold but I have never read anything credible about it. I am sure the DeWitt’s have a succession plan for when BDW Jr. is gone. I would imagine BDW III would take cover.
One thing to watch for is if Cardinal ownership decides to get aggressive about getting public funds to renovate Busch or build a new stadium. Things could go sideways at that point.
Cardinals attendance last year was 2,869,783 for 80 games ….if they had the normal 81 probably right around 2.9 million. Average of 35,872 p/g
In 2023 when they won 71 games attendance was 3,241,091. Average of 40,013 p/g so the poor 2023 season cost them about 4,100 fans p/g on average
If they lose around 6,000 avg. going into this year which would be a pretty big drop that would put them at 29,000 avg p/g for 2,349,000
No way to count actual attendance if it’s not reported….I think the main takeaway is 2023 was a dreadful season and they only lost 4,100 p/g paid for 2024, will be interesting to see how much it really drops this year.
I don’t think fans should let ownership get off with the low attendance excuse when they have been in the top 4 in MLB attendance the last 24 plus years and the main reason it will drop this year is there own doing by not properly investing in the team; not only this year with the dramatic drop in payroll but also the last several years when they short changed the player developmental system.
I’m going to guess around 2.5M paid this season. Not a huge drop off, but it should get Billy Jr’s. attention.
Good storylines for the upcoming year. I am curious what we will do with our pitching glut between AAA and the majors. We have a lot of guys needing regular playing time in the rotation and not a lot of spots. I really hope to see a youth movement and 2 rookie starters in the rotation by mid year over Mikolas and Matz. Maybe Fedde will be gone as well by the trade deadline.
I really hope to see a youth movement and 2 rookie starters in the rotation by mid year over Mikolas and Matz. Maybe Fedde will be gone as well by the trade deadline.
The “youth movement” is part of the reason I think they should be moving Fedde. If you are not going to compete, let Graceffo/Thompson battle for that fifth spot, get prospects back for Fedde and save $7 million…That would seem to fit all the Cardinals goals for the season…
As for Matz, I would use him in the bullpen. He was pretty effective there two years ago, it might keep him healthy, and if he is good through the trade deadline you can trade him and save roughly $4 million…
Even if Matz is in the rotation, he’s an opener. Twice through the lineup is risky and now managers can pre-stack righties vs his 151 ops+ allowed (vs RH, 24′). Since he needs to raise his deadline value, I would argue against a rotation spot.
Not to derail this but we have lefties to sort out. JoJo and Libbys roles need first consideration. Are they both in the pen? Matz salary will play and did Thompson get another option, or is he out of them.
I don’t expect Feddes trade value to rise. We bought high on him.
I think Matz should be moved now even if we have to bundle another player or eat some contract. Mikolas will be difficult to move. From what I understand he hasn’t been keen to waive his NTC clause.
Fedde could be moved now or at the deadline depending if Arenado is moved or not and depending how much payroll the Cardinals want to purge. They can’t seem to make up their mind on that subject.
It also wouldn’t shock me if they trade Matz and Fedde then re-sign Kyle Gibson. Derrick Goold has alluded to that. Does that align with a youth movement or reducing payroll? No, but Mo seems to have a new plan each week. To say that everything is fluid would be an understatement.
I would not attach players or prospects to move Matz – there is only one year left on his contract, and it is not an albatross, just poor value.
The most money you can eat to move Matz is $5 million, otherwise you are better off trading Fedde. Given the prospect return and the desire to compete sometime after 2025, you are better off moving Fedde, all else equal.
I don’t know any team that would want Mikolas…His contract is dead weight until it comes off the books next year.
Yeah, the Gibson talk seems strange unless they unload all of Arenado, Matz and Fedde, get decent prospect returns without eating a lot of cash, and just need somebody to provide innings…Oh – and Gibson signs for less than $10 million…
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