September 26, 2019 at 12:48 pm #108611
No matter how are season finishes, I feel going into spring of 2020, there will be some changes made. Here are just some of my predictions.
Other than Wacha, our rotation remains the same as We will shop for a big game pitcher to fill his spot in the rotation. CMart will go to LA, Ozuna will be offered a big contract. If he signs it, we will not resign Bader, or look to trade fowlerwhile putting either Thomas, O’Neil, or Arozarena In right. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if we trade one of those 3. Carp will be traded for some draft picks, or a couple minor league prospects.September 26, 2019 at 12:54 pm #108613
Hey Dave, while I would question why the Cards would trade Carlos to a rival (unless you mean the LA Angels), a couple of notes:
-Bader will be signed or traded. I suppose he could be just plain let go but at worst he’d be optioned to Memphis.
-The only tradeable draft picks are compensation picks, so the Cards wouldn’t be able to trade Carpenter for draft picks.September 26, 2019 at 2:14 pm #108621
Yes I referring to the Angels. In all honesty I think we give Bader one more chance. It may be as a bench player but I see him making the team next spring, because even though we will offer Ozuna a big contract, I see another team offering him more and he’ll go with that team. If that happens, I see us picking up a quality outfielder from the FA market but not spend a ridiculous amount. I think we’ll invest in a quality starter. Thank you for correcting me about Carp. Not sure what I was thinking.September 26, 2019 at 3:06 pm #108634
I predict Ozuna will not be back. We will offer the QO, he will refuse, then we will gladly take the extra draft pick.
Wacha will not be back unless it was a cheap one year deal.
I could see CMart being trade bait but I could also see him in our rotation next year.
The OF jam needs to be cleared out. Ozuna will go, JMart should go, then one of O’Neill, Bader, Thomas, or Arozarena could go.
I really don’t see a busy winter. The main issues will be defining LF, possibly adding a starter, and possibly adding a reliever.
September 26, 2019 at 3:19 pm #108640
- This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by gscottar.
What are the odds of us signing Madbum?
Maybe for a short term deal? I doubt it would be excepted though on his part.September 26, 2019 at 3:44 pm #108645
I’d think Bumgarner will get 4-5 years at something in the upper teens to low 20s per year. There is risk involved in his deal as he’s had some injuries and a little bit of a tick down in his stuff. Plus he’s sure to have draft pick compensation attached. He has been durable for the most part and has had a solid 2019, but teams will be scared a bit of all the innings on that arm (he’s only a couple hundred innings shy of Waino’s career total).September 26, 2019 at 5:23 pm #108668
What is most likely to happen?
Flaherty throws No Hitter
Hicks > 40 saves
Goldy > 40 HR
Edman bats 300
Wong is an All Star
DeJong > 30 DB
Cardinal player > 30 SB
Waino/MM Total wins > Carp HR
DH & JF Total wins < Team Home lossesSeptember 26, 2019 at 5:25 pm #108669
Last one should be a > not <September 26, 2019 at 10:45 pm #108699
personally with his second half, I don’t see ozuna back. in lots of ways, hes been far worse than bader. he cant catch average flyballs, he wont run fast enough to dive for a ball but if he smells a hit, his feet catch fire. hes just too streaky and unless he doesn’t get any decent offers, I don’t see cardinals resigning him. wacha more than likely wont be back. id rather see the cardinals spend money on a decent replacement for him. none of the pitchers ive seen them use look like they are ready to be an everyday starter. I think bader will be given a chance to keep his starting center field job in spring training but he has to earn it. if he don’t, I still feel he will make the team for late game defense and baserunning. these other guys haven’t proven to me they will hit over the long haul. trades could change things. also the carpenter situation is pivotal to that. unless edman falls off a cliff in spring training, he is gonna be a starter. if carp can prove this year and a good part of last was a fluke, then edman will be an outfielder mostly which changes stuff. if bader can turn it around, I have him at center, edman in right, and arozarena in left. man would we have some speed on the team.September 27, 2019 at 9:11 am #108736
willie, I imagine Fowler will be starting next yearin the OF. He had a decent bounce back year and he is still owed $33M. He will play.September 27, 2019 at 9:48 am #108743
As it stands now
Wainwright (or FA pitcher)
Offense (depending if we get the 2018 or 2019 versions of Carpenter, Goldy, and Martinez)
Biggest trade chips:
Carpenter (probably untradeable)
Wong (I know many dont agree but I say trade high! Also frees up some payroll. Edman can be plugged in.)September 27, 2019 at 10:06 am #108744
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Counting on CMartinez is getting about like anyone counting on Reyes.What about his shoulder? Can CMart ever start again and hold up?IMO Cards do need to find a solid innings eater who can fit in the middle of the rotation.Mikolas,Hudson,Flaherty,maybe Wainwright and the usual cast of Gomber,Poncedeleon,Cabrera eyc;.Thas not enoughSP IMHO.I know Gant can also play swingman if needed but with the Cards luck you know at least one SP will get injured.
Enough with JMart..he has his year last season so trade him.Fowler -trade him for what you can get.Very average at best with a very inflated pay rate.Plus he is blocking younger players.I agree with most everyone about Ozuna-he
s gone ..some team will make him a offer he cant refuse.September 27, 2019 at 11:08 am #108750
Carlos is a big key to the team’s plans for next year. They will have to figure out soon whether there’s a good shot that he can be a starter or not. If he’s not going to be able to cut it, then you have to go after a starter. Whether that’s a big fish or not is their choice. I know what I’d prefer.
As for the lineup, I suspect Fowler will be back. He had a solid enough year that the team will have him back there in leadoff for 2019. Apart from that, I do think that Jmart is a goner. Randy A has impressed me this year and he might just be all around solid enough to hold down the LF spot in a Starling Marte like manner. Here’s a lineup I could get sort of behind:
C-Yadi 1B-Goldy 2B-Wong SS-Dejong 3B-Edman/Carp LF-Arozarena/O’Neill CF-Bader/Thomas RF-Fowler
Bench is the non starters plus Knizner and MuñozSeptember 27, 2019 at 11:25 am #108752
Things I would the Front Office to do:
1. Give Ozuna a qualifying offer but not resign.
2. Not re-sign Wacha.
3. Trade Jose Martinez.
4. Re-sign Matt Wieters
5. Sign Madison BumgarnerSeptember 27, 2019 at 11:49 am #108760
Considering that Marcel Ozuna has had two sub-par years for us we may as well cut him loose. I think a contract for 3-4 years/$50M would be a huge mistake.
I agree with others – give him the QO and if he doesn’t take it let him go. In my mind a combination of O’Neil, Rice-a-roni, Fowler, Bozo Martinez, and perhaps Edman might give us as much as we have got from Ozuna. Plus he is a terrible defensive player. How on earth did he ever win a gold glove???
September 27, 2019 at 2:32 pm #108782
- This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by Ratsbuddy.
I only re-sign Wieters if there is a team option for 2021. Sort of an insurance policy with Yadi since we dont know for sure if he’ll be back in 2021. That allows us to trade Kinzer rather than waste him in the minors. It is possible that by 2022 Herreea will be ready.September 27, 2019 at 2:44 pm #108785
You sign Wieters because he is a productive back-up.September 27, 2019 at 3:32 pm #108794
Weiters may not come at a backup price. Plus you block Kizner.September 27, 2019 at 3:35 pm #108796
Wieters has been good this year but he is going to want more than we can offer him for a backup job. Knizer is our future catcher so I would like to see him get more reps next season.September 27, 2019 at 3:44 pm #108797
Sign Wieters…the cost won’t be prohibitive.September 27, 2019 at 4:03 pm #108798
Payroll going into 2020 is at $149M currently which includes a raise for Gant, realistically $180M is unfortunately all we can hope for as fans, even with the local and national TV money and 3.4M fans going to Busch this year. Even if they win the division, a big shake up is needed overall to maximize what they have in abundance and where they have holes. Abundance is obviously OF’s, 2B and CMart.
1) Trade Jose Martinez for whatever they can get to an AL club, the Cards have to many OF’s as it is and they can’t use a bench spot all year for just a pinch hitter that isn’t a major upgrade over what they have (-$2M)
2) Take the draft pick for Ozuna – gain top 50 draft pick ($0)
3) Trade CMart while he still has high value to the Padres along with Ponce and Bader for Yates, Luis Patino and A Morejon – Cards gain a top 5 closer for 2020 and their prospect #2 and #4 (-$6M net)
4) Trade O’neill and Woodford to the Tigers for Matt Boyd – Cards get the lefty starter they need with high upside of a #2 on a good team – (+$6M)
5) Let Wacha take a Walka ($0)
6) I’ve become a believer in Edman and am fully sold on him as the 2B moving forward, I do not agree with him as the everyday 3B or an OF though, sell high on Wong to move his salary and free up the money – Two top 100 prospects (top 5 in Cards system) is realistic (-$10M)
7) Sign Flaherty to a 5yr/60M extension with an option year – 5M in 2020/10/15/15/15 option at $25M with $2.5M buyout (+$5M)
8) Sign Rendon for 7/$203 – (+29M)
9) Resign Waino for an identical contract as this year (+$2M base)
10) Cut Leone and Mayers (or field offers, doubtful there will be any)
That only puts payroll at $180M for 2020 and gives them plenty of depth to move another guy or two if there is overlap.
Lineup: Fowler, Edman, Rendon, Goldy, Dejong, Arozarena, Thomas/Carlson, Yadi
Bench: Knizner, Carp, Munoz, Ravelo, Justin Williams/A Garcia
Starters: Flaherty, Boyd, Mikolas, Hudson, Waino, Reyes, Gomber, Helsley
Bullpen: Yates, Gallegos, Brebbia, Gant, Miller, Webb, Cabrera, Helsley, Gomber, Reyes, Whitley, Hicks
Cards also gain Patino (Cards new #2), Morejon (#4), 2 prospects in the #1-6 range for Wong, lose a pick and gain pick with Rendon and Ozuna so basically a wash.September 27, 2019 at 4:11 pm #108799
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I’m not convinced that Knizner is our catcher of the future. But I agree that he should be brought up so he can be better prepared to take over when Molina retires.
I think the outfield will be one of O’Neill/Arozarena/Garcia/Thomas in LF, Fowler in CF, and Carlson in RF in 2020.
I would love to see a better bat at SS next year. Lindor would obviously be an upgrade, and the Indians might listen because of Dejong’s team friendly contract. The concern is what to do after 2021, because the Cardinals aren’t giving Lindor, or anybody else, a 10 or 13 year contract, and there’s no obvious replacement coming up through the system unless Sosa is the guy.
Regarding CMart, I don’t think anybody knows what happened with his shoulder. If it was just a matter of him building up a specific muscle group, or certain muscle groups, then he should be okay going forward. IMO, we absolutely must have a shutdown closer on the staff, whether that’s CMart or not.September 27, 2019 at 4:27 pm #108800
Payroll going into 2020 is at $149M currently which includes a raise for Gant
Payroll going into 2020 is probably closer to $160M. You are forgetting about the 15 or so players who will make the league minimum plus there potentially could be more arbitration players than just Gant.September 27, 2019 at 4:57 pm #108803
Gscottar, I found the $147 on COTs and added $2M for Gant.
The $180 hope was for roster guys, they are at $164 for this year which would be a 10% increase, after all of the TV money and 3.4M fans, that should be the starting point of where they should/could go.
– The matrix you showed has 39 guys, the numbers I was going off of is just the 25 man. 14 guys at 550k is $8M less (they include 39),
– Alex Reyes will not be arb eligible, so that’s an automatic -$1M
– Leone won’t be brought back at $2M
So that gets it a lot closer to the $149 number I started out at.September 27, 2019 at 5:03 pm #108805
Cot’s doesn’t factor in the league minimum guys either, at least not this time of year. They will next Spring. I would peg the payroll at around $158M right now assuming that Ozuna, Wacha, Waino, Wieters, and Leone don’t come back, and Gant gets $2 or $3M in arb.
I like some of your ideas though. It will be interesting to see how much of a payroll increase DeWitt will sanction. My guess would be $170 since they tend to be very incremental about it.
- This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by gscottar.
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