The Young Outfielders

[stlcard25]

Somehow my first post seemed to get erased so forgive me if this double posts…

I had wanted to start this thread for some time now and just had the time to get around to it. The Cards have a number of young OF in the upper levels of the system performing all different kinds of well this year. I suspect that’s why many of us have been so frustrated by the poor play of Fowler and Ozuna (you da man, Tommy Pham).

Here is what the deck looks like for the AAA/AA guys, and I included Harrison Bader to make it two full outfields of production…

Harrison Bader- MLB .258/.370/.435 (73 PA) 124 wRC+ 11.5%BB/26.0%K 4SB/2CS

Tyler O’Neill-AAA .333/.342/.752 (111 PA) 169 wRC+ 1.8%BB/22.5%K 0SB/0CS

Jose Adolis Garcia-AAA .231/.282/.426 (118 PA) 80 wRC+ 6.8%BB/28.8%K 5 SB/0CS

Oscar Mercado-AAA .277/.342/.415 (146 PA) 100 wRC+ 8.9%BB/13.0%K 10SB/5CS

Randy Arozarena-AAA .260/.368/.329 (68 PA) 94 wRC+ 10.9%BB/19.3%K
             -AA .375/.405/.550 (42 PA) 155 wRC+ 4.8%BB/28.6%K 12SB/3 CS Total

Lane Thomas-AA .242/.329/.492 (147 PA) 114 wRC+ 10.2%BB/22.8%K 6SB/0CS

The question becomes, what do you do with these guys?? Assuming Ozuna is here through 2019 and Fowler probably at least that as well, that creates something of a pinch point. Now we know that not all of them will pan out on the major league level. Not all of them could even fit on a major League roster. However, one or two of them are bound to meet their production goals, some may go in trades, and some may fizzle out.

So, what say ye? Tag em:

In the Cards:

Trade Fodder:

Busted:

[CariocaCardinal]

I think Garcia needs to go back to AA to get his groove back

[Cardinals27]

I hope these young outfielders are not 4A’s.

[CariocaCardinal]

Call it a hunch but I think Mo really wants an outfield of Pham/Ozuna, Mercado, and Garcia. Of course it is dependent on the development of Mercado’s e Garcia’s bats.

[gscottar]

We need to find out if O’Neill is Grichuk 2.0 or not. He couldn’t be much worse than what we are getting out of RF right now.

[Bw52]

I just don`t see the fascination with Garcia? He looks to be a good defensive OF with a so-so bat.The fact that he is older than all the other prospects and struggling somewhat at AAA sort of drops his value to me.Not on the Mercado bandwagon at all.
I like ONeills power and he plays solid defense and i think Azozarena will pass Mercado.Lane Thomas is having a big season power -wise and if he finally stays healthy he could jump in the mix.All in all i think Cards are in a good position for the OF.Now just get rid of the albatross (Fowler).

[stlcard25]

I’m probably higher on Mercado than most. He was good enough to relegate Mags Sierra to a corner spot last year, the power uptick has mostly stuck around this year and he’s good on the bases. At worst I think he profiles as a 4th OF, with perhaps the ability to be a CF starter.

I guess to put them in my own categories, I’d say..

In the Cards: Bader, Mercado, Arozarena
Trade Fodder: O’Neill
Busted: Garcia, Thomas

[Bw52]

Cards have to be dumber than a hamster to think of trading O`Neill.Just 22 years old still until end of june,hits for power in a system starved for power,plays solid defense etc;.Why trade him…trade one of the overhyped jackrabbits or Garcia.

[stlcard25]

As seen this year, O’Neill could well be Grichuk 2.0, minus the ability to play passable CF defense. I like him but it doesn’t take a “hamster” to see why he would be at peak value right now, is blocked for 2 years and if a need arises…

It would certainly be nice to have the luxury to have all these guys stick around and be ready for when we need them but the reality is, some won’t.

BW52, why is it you think the “jackrabbits” are over hyped? Just curious.

[Bw52]

Overhyped because you cant steal 1B,you have to be able steal bases at better than 66% success rate if that is your main offensive skillset.(Mercado).As for Azozarena people complain about Oneills k rate and yet Arozarena is striking out at a higher rate than oneill without the power that O`Neill has.
As for Adolis Garcia…..i see another overhyped older prospect who AAA pitching seems to have figured out so far this season.Since he obviously played for years in Cuban leagues people can`t say he is still raw.
I don`t dislike any of these prospects.i just am not overly impressed by the rabbits at this time.If the rabbits cut their k rate,improve their walk rate and steal successfully 75-80 % of the time then i will start being more impressed.All these guys have some tools that are working and all have tools to work on.None are finished products IMHO.

[gscottar]

Adolis Garcia may not project to be more than a 4th OF but time will tell. We had the opportunity to sign Luis Robert but got outbid by the White Sox. Robert projects to be a star.

[14NyquisT]

It will take an injury to one of the starters in STL to get some upward movement. O’Neill would probably be the next up with AGarcia struggling. Arozarena is smoking since being sent down to Springfield. Mercado needs more time at AAA but is still viable. Lane has returned to his just average status after a great April. After these and the exception of Roache at AA, there’s a whole lot of nothing all the way through the system.

There’s only a splattering of solid position prospects after AA. Machado, Pinder and Carlson have all been disappointing. Maybe the June draft will produce some movers. Last year’s draft was a bust due to the espionage penalty and another top spot for the Fowler signing. Missing out on those top picks will hurt the system for the next few years as there are really just a handful of solid prospects at the lower levels. The International signings have produced very little. Add to that, Perez has been sent home apparently getting a chance to re-set as the short-season teams start their action in the middle of June.

[Bw52]

I wonder if the Cards will go for more OFs in the draft? Seems like 1B-3B-SS all need more help along with Catcher(you can never have too many choices IMHO).IMO CCards need offense all through the system.There quite a few guys available who have good K/BB rates who hit well in college with some pop.I know nothing is a sure thing but if Cards can find a player who is advanced enough to get to the Big leagues in a couple of years it would be perfect.

[14NyquisT]

Speaking of outfielders:

There’s a story from VEB regarding Ozuna and his problems (long read)… here’s the ending quote.

So did the Cardinals make a mistake settling for Marcell Ozuna? No, I don’t think so. Not yet. But it’s also not looking like the kind of lineup-altering sea change of a move we had hoped it would be. And so we find the club still searching for that big bat that will make them whole, six months after the last time they made a move for one.

IMO, the FO has become inept. Especially so with the Fowler signing.

[stlcard25]

Bw52, thanks for sharing your thoughts on those guys. I’m inclined to agree in some cases, not as much in others.

I wouldn’t say Mercado’s base stealing is his main offensive weapon. He’s doing a little of everything, with a little power, OK walk rate, good K rate (13%) and good defense (which I know is not offense but still is part of his profile). His speed plays if he can even hit around average.

Arozarena hasn’t really been around too long and has that Swiss army knife type of game that gets people excited. In the end he may turn out to be nothing but like Mercado he does a bit of all you’d want in an OF.

Agree with you about Garcia. He needs to really produce or risk being passed by these other guys.

O’Neill may be the best of all…or he may be someone who can best be valued in a trade. That’s the beauty of our discussion…we won’t know until the chips fall and we see what the Cardinals do at the deadline and this winter (or beyond).

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