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After the Redbird game of August 25th, Harrison Bader had a tremendous OPS of .945 and was coming off a 4-game stretch where he went 6-for-13 with all 6 hits for extra bases. He smacked 3 doubles, a triple, and 2 homers in those 4 games, and also reached via walk or HBP 3 times. In short he was having a great season at the plate, and on a fantastic hot streak.
Since then he has gotten 9 at-bats in 8 games.
I don’t want to jump to any conclusions about managerial competency here. I really don’t. I have roundly criticized Mr. Shildt this year for knuckleheaded pitcher usage because I had the facts at hand. But regarding this matter, I don’t subscribe to the Post-Dispatch and I watch neither the pregame nor postgame TV shows, so it is entirely possible that some physical infirmity has kept Bader almost entirely off the field. (I recall he had a migraine one day, but that’s it. He’s pinch-run and pinch-hit, so he sure seems healthy enough to start.)
Could someone please clarify what’s happening with our centerfielder? Thanks in advance!
Adjusts the Velcro on his gloves. Steps into the batter’s box. Does that little upper body shimmy. Pumps his hips once or twice as he puts his hand back to signal the ump that he’s getting ready. Finally allows the pitcher to throw a pitch. Whoosh. Strike one. Steps out of the batter’s box. Adjusts the Velcro on his gloves (sometimes twice). Steps into the box. Does that shimmy. Starts the routine all over again. One of the outfielders batting 7,8,9. Skip with a shimmy and a pump.
The Cards changed the lineup when they weren’t scoring many runs. Since they took Bader and O’Neill out of the lineup they’re hitting, scoring runs, and winning. Is it a coincidence?
Is Bader a different player today than the one who played in almost 300 games from 2017-2019? It appears the team is going to use his spot to evaluate others who have been given far fewer opportunities previously.
On a side note, Bob, you know that I greatly respect your knowledge of the game, but the questioning of others’ competence due to differences in opinion detracts from your posts, IMO.
I don’t understand why Bader doesn’t play everyday. I really don’t. His speed and defense are so valuable to this team. He is the best defensive CF in the NL IMO so his offensive output doesn’t have to be that great to be of value. You WAR aficionados would know that.
I have been high on O’Neill before, and maybe he can turn it around, but all things considered I think Bader has much more value to this team than O’Neill. I would much rather have Bader in the lineup everyday hitting 9th than watching Carlson flail around trying to hit a changeup (Dylan will be fine eventually just not this year).
Bader doesn’t have to hit .300 to be valuable. .250 would be more than acceptable considering his other assets. This team is built to win with pitching and defense so not having your best defender on the field seems to miss the point. IMO Bader and Fowler have earned the right to start everyday this year. LF can be shared by O’Neill, Thomas, and Edman. Edman should also get starts at 3B if Carp can’t pick it up. Miller seems locked in at DH.
BW posted:
I think jj nailed it. I would just enhance the point about Miller, as I see him having compounded some of the problems. His hitting forced him into the lineup, but his defense forced him into the DH. That is a double whammy to the outfielders. It blocks one of the outfielders from getting DH at bats and forces Carp to third and Edman into the OF, where he ideally would not be.
Well stated.
Bader has been playing better this year and I agree that his defense will always keep him on a roster somewhere. Like NyquisT said, the Cards have themselves boxed in with Fowler in right, the need to start Dylan Carlson in CF or LF, and then Tommy Edman, Brad Miller and Matt Carpenter in the lineup (Carp should be sitting, but that’s another matter). Add in Harrison and Tyler O’Neill and that’s 7 guys for 5 spots (3 OF and 3B plus DH). Bader has been left out lately. I’m sure he will get plenty more PT during all the upcoming doubleheaders.
My only comment on Harry’s son. Has he ever played left field? Has he ever played right field? Has he ever played any place other than center field. Lots of players shorten their playing time by being position limited. You can cry about Edman or even Carlson at this early time in his career but they and others have shown that the manager has flexibility in where to put them. Carlson I feel is just being used heavily at start to get him experience and letting him see some of the pitching he will see this month in what will be mostly the second go around for these teams. Harry’s bat was hot and maybe still is and he will get his time but not all the time.
If the priority is to play Carpenter, Edman, Miller, Fowler and Carlson, they should have traded Bader or O’Neill at the deadline. Their value will only go down the longer they aren’t starting every day.
I don’t see the same trade urgency as you, forsch. At the deadline, not everyone was buying and time was short. Not everyone may have been available in trade. Further, the Cardinals may still need the depth in the last month and I don’t believe the value of Bader and O’Neill is going to significantly change based on September. JMO.
When you look at the fact that Bader is getting on base at a .339 clip, it makes sense to play him and bat him 9th in the order. His defense is so great that he only needs to provide adequate batting average or good on base percentage.
I wonder how many left handed starters we have faced this year? Bader, for his career, has hit left handed pitchers better than right handed. Yet, he has started only 2 games against left handed starters this year and has a total of 8 plate appearances against left handed pitchers.
Since you are restating the obvious, do you know what it is? Bob Reed has already asked the question.
Forsch, the answer is that Edman, Carlson and Fowler are higher priority players for the team to play in the OF right now. I get that you don’t like the answer, but that seems to be the way it is.
Thanks for the responses, everybody!
To get one thing out of the way, the Birds are 4-4 since Bader’s benching, so there hasn’t been some mystical winning transformation. (And Dylan Carlson’s OPS has gone from .501 to .498, so nothing’s happening there, either.)
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“Bader has the 4th highest position player bWAR on the team and the highest OF bWAR on the team.”
“Forsch, the answer is that Edman, Carlson and Fowler are higher priority players for the team to play in the OF right now. I get that you don’t like the answer, but that seems to be the way it is.”
Well this raises a painfully obvious question. If those others are “higher priority players” when Bader has a .945 OPS, then how is Harrison Bader supposed to ever earn a full-time CF job? On the Cards in 2020, a .945 OPS translates to a 158 OPS+. Harrison Bader with a 158 OPS+ is Willie Mays. It’s that simple, honest.
For his career Willie had a 156 OPS+. So Bader, at the moment when he was benched, was Willie Mays. Career Mays, not prime Mays. But Mays nonetheless. So Bader apparently needs to be better than Willie Mays to safely secure Mike Shildt’s starting CF role. Best of luck with that, Harry.
Here’s the thing about earning a full-time starting role: performance is supposed to win out. For instance, Brad Miller came to St. Louis for a couple million bucks to be a bench player, but obviously earned full-time status with his play. And that’s great! That’s how baseball works, or is supposed to work. Playing Brad Miller every day was clearly best for the team, so that’s what Shildt did. He adjusted to circumstances.
Tremendous defender Harrison Bader on the other hand got scorching hot at the plate, hitting just like he did in both A-ball and AA-ball, whacking the horsehide with authority, and was immediately benched. That’s NOT how baseball works, except in the Bizarro World.
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Someone asked if Bader is the same player that he was from 2017-2019. Well first let’s briefly examine what kind of player he was from 2017-2019. I’m talking 2017-19 on the whole, without breaking it down into individual seasons. According to both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs he was an elite CF defender with a slightly below average bat. In other words, a vaguely Terry Moore/Curt Flood type Redbird centerfielder. A little less hitting and maybe a bit better glove than his CF predecessors.
Okay, but what is that worth? Does that describe a starter on a playoff contender? Per both B-Ref and Fangraphs Bader was worth 5.6 WAR from 2017-19, in 925 plate appearances. Therefore, from 2017-2019 per 600 trips to the plate Bader was worth 3.6 WAR. According to each of the two most respected publicly available sources. So, yes, that’s quite clearly a starter on a playoff contender.
But I’ll play devil’s advocate, since it seems that some fans, and the StL manager dislike Bader for whatever reasons. (Too many Elvis gyrations was it, cranny? 😉 ) Despite having zero supporting evidence I’ll assume that both of those websites were radically wrong, and Bader was substantially less valuable than they say. Like, let’s say half as valuable. I’ll assume that he needed to markedly improve as a hitter in 2020 to secure a starting spot in center field.
Well, if he’s benched you’ll never find out if he’s truly improving as a hitter. Bader turned 26 in June, and players develop in the mid-20’s all the time, or even later. Terry Moore was a bad hitter until he was 26. Yadi wasn’t a league average hitter until he was 26, and wasn’t good until he was 28. Ozzie was annually a poor hitter until he was 29. With an exceptional defender, the manager owes it to the team to find out if the player will develop as a batter.
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Summing up. In a season where the importance of every single game is massively magnified, on August 26th a terrific defender with a .945 OPS was benched in favor of a highly touted prospect with a lesser glove and a .501 OPS. Then when the prospect continued to flounder at the plate, he was benched for Tommy Edman and Lane Thomas. If there is no injury explanation, that series of decisions isn’t just incompetent. It’s clinically insane. I’m not saying the manager was insane. Just the decision. Hate the sin, love the sinner.
Bob, our manager is FO conscious, imo. He didn’t make the MM mistake w/Fowler, he did the opposite, he knew it’s what his boss wanted. Shildt also knows Mo wants Carlson starting regularly, done, check that box. Mo activated Thomas and it wasn’t long before he got a start. Mo wanted to see him right?
Shildt can’t meet all of Mo’s checklist items, and play Bader regularly, there just isn’t enough lineup spots. Could it be, could it be, Shildt is considering Baders nearly 1,000 PA’s as a Cardinal as a known quantity, and Carlson / Thomas as lesser knowns at MLB? Could it be….
The Edman starts in LF? We were in a 6 game losing streak. I saw that as Shildt keeping his batting order intact.
And since it’s a mystery we’re dealing with here, here’s another scenario.
Lets say the manager doesn’t dislike Bader. Lets say Bader is his CF going forward 100%, in Shildts mind he is fully committed to Harrison. Remember that .945 ops? 9 AB’s later it’s at .796.
Baders .796 still looks very good compared to Edman .722, O’Neill .621, Thomas .614 and Carlson .498, but if the .796 keeps dropping…
This could be a way of Shildt protecting his CF’rs numbers, while the others are struggling. Harrisons already got hot like Mo wants to see, and Shildt can now cherry pick where he gives Bader PA’s.
No idea what Shildt thinks of his outfielders, but I do know he has a Mo checklist to try and meet and Harrison has known value.
What it is, is a travesty. the funny thing is the last game he started, he threw out a guy at home with a perfect throw which got the game to extras and if the guys on base could actually run the bases, we would have won. So for that and hitting really well, what does bader get, he basically gets benched. Thats great coaching for you. Stick up for shildt if you want but the second coming of whitey, he is not. people talk about the offense picking up but you notice none of it is from the guys basically replacing him. Its fine if you want to sit him out games here and there, but the timing and length is just silly. just sends the wrong message. If this is how its gonna be, just find him a team that needs an awesome centerfielder and hopefully some coaches that can actually coach, and maybe bader can have a nice mlb career.
When he’s not in there, we miss the upper body shimmy, the hip pump, and the cap flying off in CF with the permed long locks flowing in the breeze.
Bob,about Brian’s comment about tone when critiquing Shildt and others, I am not sure you comprehend how much your posts mean to us, and how much satisfaction you bring. You are truly our pride and joy. I agree with Brian that you should be conscious with how you express opinions about people we care about. Your words tend to carry greater weight.
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