- This topic has 81 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 1 week, 1 day ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Lin – Moved to the bullpen after struggling.
I think everyone struggled in the Texas League this year, except Kade Anderson. Lin really hasn’t performed terribly, although he’s not up to the Franklin-Doyle level of prospect, naturally. But his year has stacked up ok against Cintjie’s for example. (5.04 ERA, 5.27 FIP, 4.80 xFIP for Jurrangelo, 5.21 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 4.75 xFIP for Chen-Wei). I just think he’s done enough to rank higher than 48th, and certainly ahead of guys like Aite, Campos, Crossland, Davis, Cruz, and probably some others.
For me, a reliever is always going to be ranked below a comparable starter. Unless Lin returns to the rotation, his comparison group is different. Then, there are the results.
Lin is not progressing at all. Including last season, his Double-A ERA is 5.58 in 26 games. Since June 1, it is 7.71. It remains to be seen if Lin the reliever will be better than Lin the starter.
Cijntje is apples and oranges. The Cardinals liked what they saw enough to promote him to the Triple-A rotation a month ago, while Lin was moved to the Double-A pen. That major divergence in direction speaks far more loudly than comparative numbers to me.
I ranked Lin 44th, right ahead of Pete Hansen, who is in the same boat one level higher and I have Lin just after Cade Winquest, who is an improving Triple-A reliever. Kyle took Lin out of his Top 50 entirely.
Always happy to explain my thinking…
I’m surprised and not surprised at the same time Eagen is ranked so low. I dont have him as high as others (top 12ish) either as I am unsure if he ever becomes more than a back of the rotation guy. The surprise part is everyone else generally seems so high so I expected to see him high kost likely here as well.
I’m also surprised Fajardo isn’t jumping into the top 10 ahead of guys like Cjintje, Kuhns, Condon. His K%, BB%, and SwStr% have all been great and he is a 19 year old pitching at AA now.
I don’t study others rankings before I do mine. I sense there is a “new guy” syndrome that may lead to early too aggressive placement by some raters. For example, I like Frias’ potential a lot, but not yet fourth in this system. He was in some Brewers’ top 10s but in the second 10 in others, a system ranked very similarly to the Cardinals this year.
Good point on Fajardo. He is getting it done. Through two starts at least, he is handing Double-A just as well as he did High-A.
Fajardo will get probably 30 innings in AA this year. I assume he starts there next year, but the rate they have been promoting him, he probably goes to Memphis early in the year. I could see a small chance he debuts at 20 late next year but with more realistic odds he debuts at 21 early 2028.
If you compare Kuhns and Fajardo directly, Fajardo to me as just as much if not more upside while being younger pitching in AA while Kuhns has only pitched in college so far.
I personally have Fajardo in my top 5, but maybe I am being overly aggressive on him. I likely was with Mason Molina, but maybe he can make that AAA adjustment and return to form.
Albert, I’m really big on Fajardo too as you can see by the list I published awhile back. That guy already pitches at an advanced level and he’s still so young. I love his composure. I’m not as big of a Molina fan, but he has been impressive most of the time.
I’m not sure how our rotation develops, but that’s a good problem to have. I see Franklin, Fajardo, and Matthews in it. But we have at least 3 pretty good ones there now. Plus Doyle is a probable. I really like what they are doing with him. That’s a lot of average to better than average starters. There are lots of other possibles beyond that too like Molina. It’s a fun position to be in.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.