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Libby is getting absolutely pelted…..9-0 Nats in this laugher….but I’m not even cracking the slightest smile…..matter of fact tears are starting to swell.
Stranger things have happened, JJ. Let’s hit them with 6 quick runs here in the 6th and then possibly all of our wildest dreams will come to fruition.
The schedule gets immensely tougher after this. We might finish 10 games under .500. I still think we should be soft sellers. And I still think Helsley should be traded away. I wouldn’t trade Carlson or Gorman. The value is lower than the player they are.
I’d try to acquire a starter who would be in the mix next season and simultaneously trade Helsley away for prospects and that’s it. It’s a weird strategy. I know. But I want to maximize Ryan’s value to help us in 2026.
Cardinals will be 2 games over even after tonight’s game with 4 games remaining before the end of July. What’s the plan if they’re under .500 at the deadline?
Maybe that’s the way to go, but if Helsley ships out I’d say the Cardinals are acknowledging that their season’s finito.
I’m not anxious to see Helsley dealt….but we sure would get a king’s ransom in return…..especially in this year’s market.
Boy the crowd sure has thinned out a bit, but is still a respectable lot considering the circumstances. 39,372 is the announced attendance…….5000 are already home counting sheep, another 5500 are home, but still awake, 10,000 are en route home, 4000 have left their seats and are milling out of the ballpark, or are in the parking lot as we speak…….and the other approximately 15,000 that are still here are either waiting to sober up or are totally diehard fans.
The bullpen has been amazing. Winn and Burleson took nice steps forward. Nootbaar and Donovan are still good when healthy. And the starting pitching has generally kept us in games. But nothing else has gone right this season or is likely to go right at this point. Goldschmidt is broken. Arenado is now average. Edman is still hurt and coming off a significant wrist injury. Walker is lost in the netherworld. Gorman is swinging and missing so often he looks like a ceiling fan. And no one at Memphis is ready to make a big impact. Plus we have Carpenter using a spot on the roster for no good reason. I just don’t see us making the playoffs or winning anything if we get there. Not unless we’re willing to make a few bold moves and I don’t think we are. Therefore, sell the piece you have at the top of its value. That’s Helsley. I don’t really think any other player on the roster is at the top of his value or is worth selling due to contract. I guess they could sell Kitty too if they wanted, but that’s not going to net anything great so I see no use. Still try to win. But recognize that it’s better to maximize Helsley for the value he brings back than to keep him around in the 1 in a thousand chance this team suddenly fixes most of those issues I listed above.
“Meanwhile, Liberatore continues to be a young Steven Matz. He can’t get anyone out.”
Yup. It seems like pitching Liberatore on just 2 days rest after a tough 69-pitch effort on Wednesday was a really, really bad idea.
For context, the most arduous outing he’d ever had before in his MLB career which was immediately followed by an appearance on only 2 days rest, was 42 pitches. (Not to mention, the 69-pitch game was quite high-stress for Matt, as he got clobbered for 5 runs in 3 innings.)
Competent managers don’t do things like this.
Bob, I agree in principle that in a vacuum you don’t want to use Liberatore in last night’s game on short rest. Ollie probably agrees too, but I didn’t ask him. However, the Cardinals don’t play in a vacuum where they have unlimited bullpen pitchers to use at any time.
In the real world where the Cardinals actually play in, they were only spotted 5 innings from Kyle Gibson. That left them 4 innings to go. They were already behind by 2 and Roycroft had now walked the bases loaded with lefties coming up as 2 of the next 3 hitters. They had thrown their 5 “good” pitchers the day prior to try to protect a lead. Knowing they had 4 innings to cover and that they were already down and likely to concede at least 1 more of those runners with the sacks full, Ollie didn’t want to go reuse the same 5 as yesterday. That leaves Gallegos and Liberatore only. With 2 lefties coming up, he went with Libby hoping he could bounce back and try to get somewhere between 1 inning or up to 1 2/3 innings from him and then see if the offense did anything. If they didn’t, then Gallegos had the remaining innings. If they did, then he reuses 1-3 of those 5 from yesterday to hold on.
The problem wasn’t Ollie. It was Gibson not going 6, Roycroft not throwing strikes when he needed to, and the offense not making enough good contact. In this case, Ollie actually is the only good thing we had going because now he saved those 5 relievers for today when hopefully it matters rather than wasting them on a day where it didn’t matter. That’s the way I see this one. Ollie is the only hero of a miserable performance.
I was critical of a couple moves Ollie made Friday that may have cost the team the game, but as far as yesterday goes, our players lost that one, not the manager.
5 inning starts doesn’t work in the long run. 6 cuts pen usage by 25%. Starters have to go 6 IP every time their turn comes up, and they have to do it all season, and they have to keep their team in it most of the time. They need to be able to turn in quality starts. 6 IP with 3 or fewer ER. Otherwise you end up with mop up guys and bench players out there insulting customers who have sat out a couple hours rain delay to see you play.
BDW is too cheap to hire in a rotation full of those guys. Grabbing less expensive late career guys who have done it and hope they hang on and keep doing it is probably the next best thing. Mo gave it a try, but is doesn’t seem to be holding up here as we plow through the dog days. The discouraging thing is, he is going to be doing the same thing next season, and for the forseeable future.
The reason is that the Cardinals have zero chance of popping those kind of guys out the top of their system. They focus on guys who have not even established that they can qualify for the job. In some cases they don’t even try to find out if a guy qualifies for the job until several years in. They pretend like guys who don’t even qualify are going to be the answer. Then they end up where they are now.
I do want to see our better starters get 6 innings in, but I’m also aware that since 2008, there have only been 2 seasons where starters around the league averaged over 6 innings (6.01 in both 2011 and 2012). Last season it was 5.18. It was only 4.91 in 2022 which is the low point.
The conclusion that you might jump to is that starters are throwing less pitches per game. However, that’s not really the case. At least not by much. The difference on average is like 5-8 less pitches per game. What’s happening is that pitchers are throwing more pitches per batter trying to strike them out with non-strikes. We saw this a lot with both Gibson and Gray the last 2 days.
The starters aren’t eating any more innings than last year, but they are more effective in their five innings. That is good because the team lacks rotation depth (still), yet they are managing to get by. But there are recent signals it is starting to unravel.
I see where Hence and Riley O’Brien have started rehab assignments. Well, Hence isn’t on the IL, but he got into a game.
“The problem wasn’t Ollie. It was Gibson not going 6, Roycroft not throwing strikes when he needed to, and the offense not making enough good contact. In this case, Ollie actually is the only good thing….”
Thanks for the response, Jnevel. So it would appear that you are arguing that Marmol simply had no real choice in the matter, given circumstances. That Liberatore HAD TO be used yesterday — again, despite throwing 69 pitches just three days earlier.
So my concrete question to you would then be: would you still endorse Marmol’s use of Liberatore yesterday if Matt had thrown 75-80 pitches on Wednesday? How about 85? Or 90? It seems to me that by your logic, what you said and what you did not say, Wednesday’s pitch count is entirely irrelevant. Is that correct? If not, then what is your number?
There have to be limits in these matters. Personally, my limit would be in the 45-50 pitch range, since 42 was Matt’s previous career high in that 2-days-rest circumstance. Anything more than 50 was dangerously dumb, in my opinion. And very likely to fail in the short term, and risk Liberatore’s health in the long term.
Liberatore in my opinion should have been on the “do not use” list yesterday. Plain and simple. This is done with relievers all the time.
The bigger question is, how did the manager permit this ridiculous emergency situation to arise at all? The starter went 5 innings yesterday, not 2 or 3. And yet, just one week removed from the full reset of the All-Star break, and just two days after an off day, the manager still felt he had to use Liberatore inappropriately and a position player for 2 innings!
So again I ask: if in your mind 69 pitches on Wednesday did not preclude using Liberatore on Saturday, then what is your personal limit? Thanks.
Bob – all good and fair questions. But none of them really affect my thought process. My thought was why use one of the good 5 pitchers on back-to-back days and make them unavailable for the next 2 days in a game that we were likely to lose? Libby had a few days of rest and was likely in similar condition as say John King who had pitched the day before. Either choice isn’t ideal, but Liberatore becomes the better choice because King is the better pitcher and we want to keep him available when we have a better shot at winning. Ollie made the right move. You could argue Mozeliak should have optioned Liberatore after that bullpen start to give Ollie a better option in a situation like last night. I can see some validity in that argument. But either way Ollie has to make the best decisions with the team he’s given.
If you still don’t agree, then play the game out on paper and see what bringing King or Romero in would have netted us. We would have very likely still lost and now had a worse chance in the game today and tomorrow.
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