StL 2019 Game 20 thread: Sat 4/20 vs. Mets

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  • #88187
    AvatarBob Reed


    Firstly, big kudos to Miles Mikolas. When you drive in as many runs as you allow, you’ve had a great day at the office. Research project: how many times did Gibson and Wainwright accomplish that feat? Or Forsch maybe?

    “When the team is at full strength, I don’t think Martinez should be in the starting lineup. On that triple to right center, he was barely in the picture. I would like to see Thomas get a start in center and move Fowler back to right. Hopefully that would work until Bader is back.”

    I also like the idea of Lane Thomas in center for now. His glovework reputation is good, and the metrics back it up. (And an outfield alignment of Ozuna/Fowler/Martinez is asking for trouble. Begging for it, actually.) And heaven knows, even the optimist in me has been pleasantly surprised by some Cardinal prospects in recent years. I never thought Tommy Pham would have a 5-WAR season, or Matt Carpenter a string of 4-WAR campaigns, or that Paul DeJong would do what he’s done over his first 1,000 plate appearances (7+ WAR).

    But I do like Martinez in RF when there’s a lefty starter. In Jose’s (admittedly brief) major league career, he’s beaten southpaws like rented mules: .333/.406/.569

    Even with the bad defense, that’s just too great a line to leave on the bench. Fowler can start versus righties, sure, while Bader & O’Neill are both suffering ouchies. But Martinez has to be in the lineup for lefties.

    Last season, they were .249 (overall) and .295 (runner on 3B, less than two outs). Why can’t hitters put up the same average no matter the situation? Aren’t they trying their hardest in every at-bat?

    I know you’re joshin’, Brian. Ya big josher. I would say that the man with the bat and the man on the bump are entered into an involuntary collaboration of sorts, and when the situation places too much pressure on the hurler, he over-cooperates with the batter. Probably what happens a lot is the twirler gets timid, starts to nibble, falls behind, and has to groove one.

    At any rate, here are the overall MLB splits for the past 5 years. First, batting average and OPS with bases empty. Then, the same for when there was a man on 3rd and fewer than two outs. (Each year, we’re talking about roughly 100,000 PAs with the bases empty, and 10,000 with a man on 3rd, less than 2 out. So there are no sample size distortions whatsoever here.)

    Empty: .241 & .710
    3rd/LT 2 out: .318 & .864

    .250 & .738
    .331 & .889

    .250 & .727
    .316 & .853

    .248 & .704
    .316 & .840

    .245 & .682
    .326 & .839

    So the difference is real, and it’s spectacular. It’s generally 70-75 points of batting, and 140-150 points of OPS. That’s the handicap. The Cards need to do better, for sure.


    Paid - Annual

    I just watched the condensed game. That was pretty enjoyable. Now if we could just get 6+ innings from the starter a few turns through the rotation, that would be great!

    Looking at the schedule, ours stinks but the Mets’ early slate is also poor. Tomorrow will be their 16th road game to a measly 5 home contests. Who on earth set this docket up this year? Horrible



    Lots of Cardinals players at the Blues game tonight. Molina was sloshed by the time the game was over. Yadi and Waino led the crowd in several chants. KoWo was there with his wife. Tyler O’Neil and JMart were also there and Dex was there with at least his daughter.


    Paid - Annual

    Part of the reason for the higher runner-on- third numbers is due to some of those situations being played with the infield in. And of course you have the sac fly possibility, which is no AB for the batter. And there are likely higher walk rates in that situation.

    It is a situation that favors the offense, so one should expect the numbers are better for the offense.

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