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May as well start a thread on this…
Sonny Gray says he'll consider waiving no-trade clause given 'direction' Cardinals are going https://t.co/JMCYyViE3n
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) September 25, 2025
Why wouldn’t he? The issue is, teams will offer the Cards a return based on his 2025 stats, which are middling. The Cards would have to pay down a lot of cash to get rid of him, basically. His peripheral stats were pretty good, suggesting a potential bounce back. So I’d rather just keep him, as I don’t really care if the Dewitts save the money.
I really don’t see how the Cardinals could trade Gray without saying they would be lucky to win 70 games next year. They don’t have enough legitimate starting pitching candidates for 2026 as it stands right now.
I don’t know if 70 wins without Gray was off the cuff or calculated, but in a vacuum, it feels pretty accurate. This year, the team went 21-11 in his starts. Let’s say with his replacement next year, they go 11-21. That decline of 10 wins would take them from 80 this year (if they can win 2 of their 3 remaining) to 70 next.
Yeah…without Gray, the rotation is Liberatore and McGreevy, maybe Pallante? They’d need to find at least two more arms. That’s ugly.
It was a little off the cuff but somewhat using your logic in my head. Gray has been better for the team than some realize.
25, without adding anyone from the outside, we are probably looking at Leahy and Mathews as the other 2.
Gray knows he is a FA-to-be next season due to ownerships “direction”. Sonny is volunteering to escape, knowing his $ are guaranteed. Poor Bill, the players cant find the exit quick enough.
25, without adding anyone from the outside, we are probably looking at Leahy and Mathews as the other 2.
Leahy may be ok…but Mathews is going to have a rough go at the big league level, since he can’t find the plate.
Gray knows he is a FA-to-be next season due to ownerships “direction”. Sonny is volunteering to escape, knowing his $ are guaranteed. Poor Bill, the players cant find the exit quick enough.
It should be interesting (as in, insulting) to hear Dewitt at the post season presser trying to spin the season as somehow successful and the future as bright. I wonder if Mo will make one last appearance, or simply fade away into the twilight? I can’t imagine that it would be fun to have to face the media while going out with a thud.
This is a great reason to sign Mikolas to a 4-year extension. Done. Problem solved.
4 years and $68 million. Rinse and repeat a la Waino.
Juniors-Junior can be the spokesman, he is indoctrinated. Bills’ looking to the past and pointing to the future probably gets a replay.
I think trading Gray this winter is a big mistake by the Cardinals unless they are getting a huge haul back in return, which seems unlikely.
2026 rotation:
1. Libby
2. McGreevy
3. Pallante
4. Leahy
5. ???If we bring Mikolas back I am going to stock up on the mylanta and excedrin because it is going to be a dark, dark season. I am calling it 60-102. The Pirates will be rejoicing to get out of the cellar.
Team record in starts, 2025:
McGreevy 11-5. Let’s be aggressive and double it with 32 starts for 2026: 22-10.
Liberatore 14-15.
Pallante 12-19.So those three at the same rates would give you a 48-44 record. But you need another 70 starts from somewhere, and expecting a winning record from the unknown backend of the rotation seems a lot to ask.
Leahy may be ok…but Mathews is going to have a rough go at the big league level, since he can’t find the plate.
I don’t think Bloom brings him up unless he’s ready. And he wasn’t at the end of 25. As you say, he couldn’t find the plate.
The sickening thing is that it wouldn’t take a whole lot of action to restore some good will amongst the fans, and it’s not like it would destroy the rebuild. Heck, it might even result in a Wild Card.
Trade Donovan for pitching (another starter to slot around the #3-4 spot in the rotation).
Call up JJ to play 2B.
Nado can be cost savings, or he can play 3B. Whatever.
Resign Helsley to a 1 year make good deal.
Sign a mid rotation starter.
Sign a RH OF bat.That would probably require a payroll bump up to about what it was in 2024, so it’s not exactly extreme.
If you get a good quality start like last night and still can’t win, you are just wasting the money.
stl25, all of those moves make sense except Helsley. He has been a disaster with the Mets and I didn’t think highly of him before then. I think the Cardinal bullpen has some good young arms and will be the least of our worries.
I agree with your other moves and I agree with the premise that trading Arenado and Gray is not going to speed up the rebuild at all. Not at all. We won’t get much in return, they aren’t blocking anyone, and the savings won’t be reinvested. I guess it will help our order in the draft but that is a stretch to call that a silver lining.
stl25, all of those moves make sense except Helsley. He has been a disaster with the Mets and I didn’t think highly of him before then. I think the Cardinal bullpen has some good young arms and will be the least of our worries.
I think he’d be a good “buy low” candidate. I don’t think he likes pitching under the bright lights of NY, and that has had an impact. As far as the other bullpen arms, I agree that we have some good ones, but there are several who don’t belong on the big league level. Adding another guy or two is probably necessary this winter, especially if Leahy may go to the rotation.
bb said:
If you get a good quality start like last night and still can’t win, you are just wasting the money.
I think most everyone other than you would be satisfied with a 21-11 team record in starts as occurred with Gray pitching this season. But if you cherry pick the bad outcomes, then the story is different.
P.S. For a point of comparison, Freddy Peralta of the Brewers is the current NL Cy Young Award favorite. Milwaukee is 19-13 in his starts this season.
Is Dewitt looking to Reduce MLB payroll to under $100 Million next year…If they trade Gray and Arenado for 50% discounts they have a real good chance.
Money off the Books after this year is over is around $32 Million (Mikolas, Helsley/Matz money before trade)
It seems clear they would have to buy down some of Arenado’s contract due to its size and his downturn in results. On the other hand, Gray is still performing at a pretty high level.
Gray is a 25mil AAV contract who Fangraphs has at 28.6 value during 2025.
Bill has paid 35mil over two seasons, leaving a 1/40mil balance. The 5mil buyout is already payable 27′-31′ and no team trades for that baggage w/that gifted player opt out (beyond the NTC that needs bought out), so Sonny is owed 1/35mil in 2026 to a buyer.
Keeping Gray until the deadline costs Poor Bill 23.1mil of the 35mil. If Bill can find a sell point, costing less than 23.1mil….cya.
The flip side is Bill keeps his attendance hopes intact, and plays Gray until the deadline. TBD.
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