Six-man rotation

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  • #220930
    Bob Reed
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    So the Cards are going to a six-man rotation? Huh. Prior to Wednesday’s victory over the Brewers, these were the season splits for Cardinal starting pitchers:

    Normal rest, 4.38 ERA over 17 starts
    One extra day of rest, 5.28 ERA across 20 starts
    Two or more extra rest days, 7.07 ERA (just 6 starts, but still)

    So there’s certainly no evidence that the extra rest will have a salutary effect on the Redbird rotation. If anything, just the reverse. Moreover, this curmudgeonly corner of the internet very specifically wonders why Steven Matz and his 5.62 ERA couldn’t slide over into the bullpen — a place where innumerable bad starting pitchers have found success over the decades. Like Zack Thompson. Or last year, Steven Matz himself in a modest sample.

    I’m not expecting Cooperstown-level success a la Mariano Unanimous Rivera. But why not at least try Matz in the pen for a few weeks and see what happens? The club needs a multi-inning reliever anyway….

    #220932
    858booyah
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    Well they do have 19 consecutive games without a break until the 31st. Then they’ve got the 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd, 23rd and 26th off in June. My guess is Matz and or Liberatore will be used as a swing guy for a righty at some point in June and by then the bullpen may need a blow with all it’s thrown so far this year.

    #220942
    gscottar
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    I agree 100% Bob. Shortchanging the bullpen when we RARELY have a starter go longer than five innings is borderline insane. Matz should indeed be in the pen until the Cards can justify a salary dump or DFA.

    #220945
    jj-cf-stl
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    Our win% is 27th, might as well audition Liberatore

    #220948
    Ratsbuddy
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    The week after the London series against the Cubs they have Houston and the Yankees for six games. All are at Busch. Be a tough week. 3-3 might be a good result for that week.

    #220951
    gscottar
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    Absolutely Liberatore should be in the rotation but that doesn’t mean we should have a six man rotation. We can have the former without having the latter.

    #220952
    1toughdominican
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    The 6 man’s obviously a counterweight thought to be required to balance and mitigate the workload of a 19 game stretch without an off day. Pretty sure the results of the individual turns will determine the 5 names that remain in the rotation once the team’s afforded 2 consecutive days off on a Wed. and Thurs. at the conclusion of the 19 game stretch. I’d say both of the turns in these first 2 games vs. the Dodgers by both Wainwright and Matz respectively are key for not only the Cardinals, but also for each aforementioned SP’er in regards to their names remaining as steady members of the 5 man at the end of the 19 games.

    #220955
    stlcard25
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    Matz may be scuffling, but I’m not sold on moving him to the pen without some surety in the rotation. We do not want to be dependent on Woodford to be the man again.

    #220957
    blingboy
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    We may end up with a Memphis shuttle of relievers.

    #220958
    Oliver
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    Waino is the weakest link. But he will stay on the rotation for the rest of the year no doubt.

    #220959
    Brian Walton
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    I don’t get the concerns. The five starters are hardly dominant iron men, and the team is in a rough stretch with no days off. They never said the six-man would be permanent. And if they have to shuttle relievers up and down, they can do that. Based on what I saw last night, it seems that working Liberatore into the mix is a good move.

    #220960
    1toughdominican
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    Yeah, Woodford doesn’t at all seem like the answer, but the fact is that he’s been no more lackluster than Matz, who I’d say has been beyond scuffling for a time period that extends well back into last season. His ERA is actually a bit more lofty than Woodford’s. At any rate, although a couple of the names present in the current 6 man conversation have shown some signs of stability, I wouldn’t go so far as to say that any of those names, with the possible exception of Montgomery, have displayed anything that could be termed sustained consistency. It’s been a bit better, but nowhere near what we’d like to see.

    #220961
    Brian Walton
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    Matz is not a world beater, but over his last two starts, his ERA is 3.37. That will play if he can keep it up. Now is not the time to remove him from the rotation.

    #220962
    1toughdominican
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    No, of course it’s not permanent, BW. A 19 game stretch is almost unheard of. Almost any team would have to compensate in the same manner as have the Cardinals. It may turn out to be a good thing in the sense of an opportunity at a wider evaluation to determine the 5 names that remain once the stretch of games has come to an end.

    #220963
    1toughdominican
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    No, I don’t think so either, BW, but if he gets slapped around in his next couple of turns, I’d have to guess he’d be on the cusp at the end of the need for a 6 man. Especially if the Redbirds seem to be in any sort of genuine contention at the end of the 19 straight games. If they are, they won’t be afforded the luxury of continuing to hand the baseball to him or anyone else who can’t provide them with at least a chance through 5 or more innings of work.

    #220964
    blingboy
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    Sometimes a one game sample size is handy.

    #220968
    1toughdominican
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    Yeah, I didn’t want to be a Gloomy Gus and Liberatore’s turn last night was unquestionably a nice one, but it was a 5 inning look. If he can feature something even close to last night’s performance the next time he gets the baseball, I’ll be a bit more excited. During the post-game presentation following his outing he mentioned he thought a primary contributor to his nice work was that he’d bulked up over the offseason. That comment encouraged me because I noticed last season that he looked a bit like he could benefit from the addition of a few pork chops to his 6-4 frame and I immediately noticed when he took to the pitching mound last night that he looked bigger and stronger.

    #220969
    bicyclemike
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    I don’t think a six-man is ideal over a long period, as it upsets the starters’ routine. That might be one reason for the statistical drop off in effectiveness with the extra day off.

    But for this stretch, and with Libby pretty-well having proved all he needs to at AAA, this is a good way to work him into the rotation and keep guys reasonably tuned up.

    Once we are through this, I think one of the lefties will end up in the ‘pen. One would think Matz is the leader at the moment to go out there, but we will see how things go. Given Waino is near the end of a stellar career, I wonder if he might be agreeable to be a reliever. He might be trust the guy to get us through the 7th or 8th innings in close contests.

    #220972
    gscottar
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    The 19 day stretch may be tough on the starters but it is really going to be grueling for our now shorthanded bullpen.

    Memphis shuttle? Who exactly is going to get shuttled?

    Helsley: no
    Gallegos: no
    Hicks: no
    Stratton: no
    VerHagen: no
    Cabrera: possibly but Marmol seems to like him
    Pallante: most likely

    So we have one or possibly two that could be shuttled down. Not much relief for 19 days.

    #220975
    Brian Walton
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    Seems like with two pen spots flexible, there could still be a fair amount of movement if needed. There are four relievers on the 40-man in Memphis who could conceivably toggle with the two others for six guys flexible. Naile, Zuniga, Romero and Walsh are the others. (This assumes no other 40-man moves are made to add others to the mix.)

    Given there are clear reasons to try the six-man rotation, I would not NOT do it because a worry that the pen MIGHT get overtaxed. They could always stop the six-man if it proves unworkable before the 19 days are up.

    But logic would suggest the starters might have a better chance to go deeper into games with an extra day off than not. If that turns out to be the case, the pen would be used less, not more.

    We shall see if the move pays off.

    #220976
    Brian Walton
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    bb said:

    Sometimes a one game sample size is handy.

    Well, yes, since that is all we have so far. I am sure you keep us posted…

    #220977
    1toughdominican
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    What’s the scoop on Packy, Zack and JoJo? Sounds like a Saturday morning cartoon show…

    #220978
    Brian Walton
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    Packy was moved to the 60-day IL, which is bad news. Zack has not done well in his first three starts, but it seems early to pull the plug on him starting. JoJo has been good with Memphis.

    #220981
    1toughdominican
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    I’d say that the 5 innings of work from Liberatore ranks above positive seeing as how that same descriptive along with several other accolades were used by the Redbird field manager when asked about Matz’ last turn in which he allowed 3 ER’s on 8 hits in 5.1 IP’ed. He may have characterized it a bit differently had not the Cardinals rallied to win that game at Fenway on the RBI PH double by Gorman and the Hernandez 2 run throwing E in the final inning.

    #220982
    Brian Walton
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    Bling indirectly raises a good point. Whether the starters do better or worse ahead, it seems like it will be difficult to pin it directly on the six-man, given there are so many factors behind results.

    For example, if Waino does better tonight, would it be because of the rest or because he is ramping back up from his time on the IL? Or if he does poorer, is it because his routine was disrupted or because he is 41 years old?

    (P.S. For Waino, this was not an extra day. He pitched six days apart last time due to the team’s days off. He went on May 6 and 12. Today is the 18th.)

    I predict some interpretation discussion ahead… 😉

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