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I wasn’t attempting to making any excuses for the Cardinals, LA. I’m one of the first to point out their failures when they scuffle. I was only mentioning that the O’s were really bad for quite some time, so it makes sense that they would be afforded some pretty nice choices. It’s the way the draft system in baseball, or any sport, was designed to function.
So your point is that the Cardinals are bad because they haven’t done as good as the Orioles?
My point is the Cardinals are bad because they miss on so many of their first and second rounders.
I was only mentioning that the O’s were really bad for quite some time, so it makes sense that they would be afforded some pretty nice choices. It’s the way the draft system in baseball, or any sport, was designed to function.
I get that. But all Cardinals fans ever do, is say “but we never pick at the top of the draft.”
And my point is, there are currently 19 other rounds in the draft. And when the same fans point to the Cardinals successes in the draft, they are pointing to players drafted much later than rounds 1 & 2.
If we are really good at hitting on players in rounds 3-8, but terrible in rounds 1-2, are we really good at drafting in rounds 3-8, or are we getting lucky?
How are we better at rounds 3-8 than rounds 1 & 2 when the players drafted in rounds 1 & 2 have the most scouting reports and video and have been to the most showcases?
And besides, everyone knows that the all time great players always emerge from the 13th round…
We should focus all our efforts on our 13th rounders. Albert Pujols, Matt Carpenter…
Haha…Speaking of Carpenter, his solo HR to begin the Cardinal scoring was kind of lost in the fray of today’s game. He also had an extremely clutch PH, 2 out RBI base hit to tie a game late vs. the Cubs the other day. He’s made some key contributions and I was highly critical when Johnny took him aboard.
I just think 10 WAR is a high standard to set for these guys that I listed. For instance, I believe Nico Horner is the only first round pick (including competitive balance guys) that has exceeded that threshold from 2018 when Gorman was drafted. So I don’t know how that makes Gorman a weak 1st round pick. And Hoerner is at about 12 FWAR because he was brought to the majors quickly and has been very solid. For 2019, I think it’s only Rutschman and Witt Jr. but they went 1 and 2. There probably aren’t any from the years after that. I didn’t look at the 2nd round. That probably adds a few more from ‘18 and ‘19 but we’re still talking a really small number of players with the Cards drafting late in the rounds.
I’m discouraged by some of their picks too. There are some real misses with both pitchers and outfielders. Some guys quickly flamed out and some others just never really became anything more than a role player. Sometimes they were too aggressive, but most times not aggressive enough. Gorman, Walker, and Hence may alter that trend though – at least in part. And they get a chance this year to make a really important pick.
For 2016, I believe the only first rounder to exceed 10 FWAR to date is Will Smith of the Dodgers. Have you looked at the lists of first round picks in 2016 and 2018? They’re almost all misses or never gonna get theres. I didn’t look at 2017 because the Cards didn’t pick in the first 2 rounds but I don’t think it’s much better. Drafting genuinely impactful players is tough.
Drafting genuinely impactful players is tough.
Yet impactful players exist. They come from somewhere. Where?
He’s managed to not only stay out of the way and not try to be too fancy, but has also done a nice job of not talking.
That’s my daily goal, Dom.
Part 5: The Organizational Decisions on Players
While there is more that could be covered here if we get down into the weeds, I want to highlight 6 major decisions that all occurred around the beginning of the season or a little before that. This section is really a mixed bag of some that look good, others that don’t, and at least one where we don’t really know yet.
Choosing to move on from Andrew Knizner – Knizner had a career year last year. At times, he seemed to be the only player on the team playing above his expectations. He got a lot more at bats – especially throughout the whole public Contreras debacle. And he performed fairly well. But the underlying stats said that he was probably just getting lucky. We knew it would be a tough decision on what to do with him. Knizner had another year of salary arbitration and in theory still could have been optioned to the minors. And, we had Herrera who looked like he was ready after torching baseballs all season at Memphis and playing better defense. Oftentimes the Cardinals have chosen the safe path in the past, which in this case would be to go with the known quantity in Knizner. But they didn’t this time. They moved on and then added Pages to the 40-man roster. Knizner is currently batting .116 in limited playing time with the Rangers. Herrera has hit pretty well for a mostly Rookie catcher. He isn’t throwing out runners, but he’s otherwise been ok defensively. I think this was a good move.
Choosing not to extend Paul Goldschmidt – We really can’t know if these discussions occurred behind the scenes or not. Maybe the Cardinals offered something and the Goldschmidt camp declined. Maybe they didn’t. But for the first 2 months of the season this year, Goldschmidt struggled mightily and it sure looks like it was a good move not to extend him – certainly not to extend him at another 15-20 million per season. I think most of us felt like it was an inevitability that the Cardinals would extend Goldy. I for one am glad they didn’t. They may still do it, but if they do, it will reflect a changed market value given his decline. I like Paul. But father time seems to have caught up to him in several ways. This so far looks like a good decision.
The Cardinals chose to move on from Dakota Hudson and Jake Woodford – Both Hudson and Woodford were still on the 40-man and still eligible for salary arbitration. But the Cardinals chose not to pay for their services in 2024. I wasn’t surprised by Woodford. He seemed to always be getting hit hard every time he went out there. There were a few games where he got saved by some great defense (which for whatever reason never happened to our other pitchers last season). But he was genuinely bad. Last I checked, he’s a AAA and is one of the worst if not the worst pitchers in all of AAA by ERA. So good move there. Hudson is a little tougher though. He was going to be owed I’m guessing around $8 million in salary arbitration. But he has a long track record of at least being playable. I was actually surprised the Cardinals moved on from Hudson even though he probably isn’t worth $8 million. He’s currently pitching for the Rockies and has a 5.54 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. That’s not good. But it’s Colorado and those are better numbers than Zack Thompson gave us. Of course Thompson is cheap and we needed roster spaces and places to put all of our starting pitchers in the minors. Overall, I’m on the fence on this decision.
Sticking with converting Walker to an OF – First and foremost, Walker has all the physical tools to be a very good outfielder. Speed, arm strength, intelligence, instincts. And, from what I’ve been told, he doesn’t have very good hands which made him a rough fit at 3B. Therefore, I agree with trying to make him an OF. However, after seeing how poorly he played last year out there, I’m sure there was a lot of questioning if this was the right move throughout the organization. I don’t want to go into last year because I’m really only talking about decisions that were made after things fell apart last year. But clearly, Walker was not ready for MLB and it was a poor decision to promote him there. Imagine if he had gotten the same treatment Winn got? Then, he’d probably be a solid outfielder who was hitting well as our every day RF right now. But those are bygones. The early data looks to be that Walker has learned to play a competent RF and he’s still improving. He might even be right on the average line right now. If we can get his bat back straightened out, then maybe he can become the player he was projected to be. He should at least be able to be a better than average hitter and decent defender and will probably end up as a good defender. Therefore, I think this is a good decision, but only time will tell.
Pausing . . .
Not understanding the Edman injury – I’m not sure if the Cardinals are at fault here or not. Injuries and their symptoms and complications can be really difficult to diagnose. However, the entire precipice of the Cardinals plan coming into 2024 was to have Edman is the CF and Winn as the SS. And Edman would be the back-up SS while Carlson could back-up CF (or Nootbaar if necessary). That’s part of why they traded away Tyler O’Neil and Richie Palacios. They were expendable and not needed. And yet here we sit 1/3 of the way into the season and Edman hasn’t played even one game of a rehab assignment yet – let alone be ready by the beginning of the season which was the initial projection. And the consequences of this have been severe. First, it caused the Cardinals to use up a bench spot on Brandon Crawford, which has been completely useless to helping the team win. That was after they had already committed a bench spot to Matt Carpenter – leaving our bench with almost no flexibility. Then, it also led to the whole Victor Scott being promoted too early catastrophe. Scott wasn’t even that good of a hitter at AA and now he was thrust into the every day lineup of St. Louis (I was going to make the Scott move my 6th point, but we’ll just cover it here). He was below the standard pitchers used to set for hitting. Almost an automatic out. And he also never got on base via the walk either (or almost never). Therefore, his legs were never really a factor. And, because he wasn’t quite ready to be a major leaguer, he showed some poor judgement on a few fly balls – which happens in the minors all the time, but not so much in the majors. The Cardinals did not have a good backup plan for the Edman injury and they should have. This has been arguably the worst decision this season (some of you may say the Marmol extension). This decision to either not understand Edman’s injury or not have a backup plan has caused more damage to the team than likely all the positive ones above.
Grade for Organizational Decisions on Players – C
There’s some good, bad, and ugly above. There are about 10 others I thought about highlighting, but this has gone on long enough. Thanks to those of you who read and comment.
I just think 10 WAR is a high standard to set for these guys that I listed.
Yes, it is too high of a standard for the guys you listed, because they are not that good.
A team has a player under control for 6 years once they reach the big leagues. 2 WAR is considered “average”. That means you have to produce 0 WAR in your first year and five 2 WAR seasons.
A “star” is someone who produces 5-6 WAR in a season. How many of those have we produced?
LA – I’m not saying 10 WAR is a high standard for their career. Just a high standard for them having gotten there already after being drafted in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The guys I listed were all drafted around this time. Very few players from those drafts have exceeded that hurdle.
Just a high standard for them having gotten there already after being drafted in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The guys I listed were all drafted around this time.
2016: Carlson, Hudson, Gallen, Edman, Knizner
2017: None
2018: Gorman, Donovan, Nootbaar
2019: TBD on Thompson and Pallante
2020: Winn, Burleson, TBD on Walker and Hence and maybe Bedell
2021: TBD on McGreevey, Graceffo, and Granillo
2022: TBD on Hjerpe, Mautz, Crooks, Scott, Rajcic, Iadisernia, Church, and maybe others
Jnevel,
I don’t know any profession where an employer can’t measure an employee’s performance after 8 years.
Above are the people you mentioned.
Edman achieved 17 WAR for the Cardinals. Gallen achieved 18 WAR for the Diamondbacks.
Carlson has 5 WAR, so he has not even been average for his career.
Hudson has 4 WAR, he has not been average for his career.
Knizner has 1 WAR, he has not been average for his career.
Gorman has 4 WAR – he is on pace to be an average player
Donovan has 6 WAR – assuming this year is an anomaly, he will reach 10 WAR
Nootbaar has 7 WAR – he is on pace to exceed 10 WAR with the Cardinals, barring injuries
Thompson has 0.6 WAR – he will not achieve 10 WAR in a Cardinals uniform
Pallante has 1.8 WAR – it is extremely unlikely he will achieve 10 WAR with the Cardinals, unless he starts pitching like he did yesterday
Burleson has 0 WAR – it is extremely unlikely he will achieve 10 WAR with the Cardinals
Winn has 1.7 WAR – he is on pace to exceed 10 WAR with the Cardinals
Walker – skip
Hence – skip
Bedell – still in AA with a 5.59 ERA
McGreevy – in AAA with a 5.81 ERA
Graceffo in AAA with a 4.58 ERA
Granillo – is a reliever, so it is going to be very difficult for him to achieve 10 WAR.So, in 8 years, one first rounder and one second rounder may be on track to achieve 10 WAR for the Cardinals in their careers. That failure rate is untenable.
I pretty certain we’re saying something different. I give up attempting to communicate what I’m saying because it isn’t worth arguing about.
Although we were desperate for pitching, we picked Davis, who is presently hitting .189 in low A at Palm Beach. A couple picks later Atlanta chose RHS Hurston Waldrep, who is in AAA, and appears likely to make his debut in the Braves rotation before the AS break. Win for them, fail for us.
Since the Contreras injury is ultimately the front office’s fault , I’m putting this here. Word is he should be back by end of June. Hopefully he doesn’t let the polo shirts tell him where to position back there.
He has the gear on. His depth is his responsibility and as an ex you know this well. When a batter drops a foot out of the box you are too close and should know it. Lol, you gonna let anybody tell you your depth?
Well, I think if the manager is going to jerk my chain and sit me on the bench almost before I’m unpacked, yeah probably.
I had this post from late May flagged to revisit late in the season, and here we are. jnevel did a great job pulling a lot of stuff together here concerning the front office moves from 2023 deadline into this season. Now we see how the landscape looks after plowing through the 2024 season. We got 10-12 games better, but it doesn’t look like it is going to matter. I enjoyed reading through the thread.
The Hicks trade looks different now, but not so much because of a change in tilt. More so because both sides have come down to earth about what they got. Hicks has proven to be what we thought, and now he’s out with shoulder trouble right when his team is clinging to life in the WC. He did go 108 innings, which is his all time high in 8 pro seasons. I’m glad its not us who owes him $33 Million over the next three years. The only possible way to get value out of that is try to make him an $11 million a year closer. Good luck. Our take is looking dubious as well with neither Robberse and Klof looking ready for the opening day 2025 rotation, which I think had been the hope. Throw a couple more sore arm guys on the pile.
I still don’t have much beef with the front office moves since the end of the 2023 season. The young players we acquired in trade still have time to contribute. Some have stalled but the final report card on them is yet to be written.
The veteran acquisitions were all about what I expected, which has at least raised this club back up to being. 500. Crawford and Middleton were busts and Carp was unnecessary. Kittredge has been solid, Siani has been unexpectedly solid, and Gray, Gibson, and Lynn have been pretty much as advertised although Gray has faltered some down the stretch. Fernandez has also been very solid.
What cratered this season, and what the front office did not account for, was Walker and Gorman being so bad that they had to be sent back to Memphis and Goldy and Arenado continuing their descent down to being pedestrian or worse. Those guys, along with Contreras, were counted on to carry the offense and it just hasn’t happened. We are probably fortunate to be a .500 club actually.
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