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I wanted to start a 5 topic thread about how the Cardinals front office has performed since the bitter collapse last season. They were forced into a situation where they had to act and they knew each move would be scrutinized against the backdrop of the Ozuna trade disaster and what looks to be the Arozarena poor trade. They’ve also has a few other sketchy signings and moments where they gave up on someone too quickly, but some errors are always to be expected. Sometimes the future is just unknown and unknowable. Still, we expect our front office to do mostly well and it mostly hasn’t for about 5 years.
The timeframe I want to look at starts with the player draft last year. By that point, our proverbial ship looked like it was taking on a lot of water and it was clear change needed to happen. I said earlier that I’d examine 5 parts. The first part will be the 2023 draft. Then I’ll look at trades that were made, players acquired for essentially nothing, free agent signings, and finally roster decisions. I’ll grade each area with a lens of what we know today. There’s still a lot of runway for some of these moves to either work out or not work out, but all we know is where we are at today.
Knowing that the team was in a tight spot where it wasn’t performing on the field and that the pitching pipeline had dried up, Mozeliak and his team were given 19 picks in the 2023 draft (turned into 17 after our 10th and 20th rounders turned their offers down) as one way to alter the future of the team. However, they were already down a 2nd round pick due to the signing of Contreras. They also weren’t picking until #21 and then not again until #90. That’s not a great spot to be in. But you still need to make the most of what you have. Did they?
Well, so far it looks kind of ugly. They surprisingly did not take a pitcher with their first couple of picks. Maybe that’s because they knew they were likely going to be trading their expiring contracts for pitchers not too long after this. For the first pick, they took Chase Davis. Chase is now 22 years old and is still playing at Low A with an OPS under .700. He strikes out over 30% of the time and hasn’t really hit for much power. The power thing might be explained away being that Palm Beach zaps a lot of players’ power. But overall, this pick just looks bad as he’s playing against guys who are a year or two younger and he’s not performing. In the 3rd round (our 2nd pick), the Cardinals took Travis Honeyman. Travis did not play one game last year for the Cards due to injury. He was also often injured in college. He still hasn’t played a game yet this year, although he was activated yesterday I believe to start his career at the FCL. He’s actually a couple months older than Davis so again not someone who is young. So he’s pretty far behind. He’ll turn 23 in October after the season. I’m going to skip over our 4th and 5th round picks for a secopnd as they are going to go in the good category. But the remainder of this draft hasn’t performed much at all. Most of them have actually been fairly bad or just haven’t played at all. The 8th round pick, Ixan Henderson, does look a little interesting. He has a weird throwing motion and has racked up some strikeouts at A ball. And I guess our 17th rounder Trey Paige has hit pretty well, but is a bit older. There’s nothing else good to say about the rest of this class.
Let’s get to the 2 players that I skipped over. That’s 4th rounder Quinn Mathews and 5th rounder Zach Levenson. For whatever reason, the Cardinals have a track record of doing much better in these middle rounds. Quinn Mathews has been on fire. He lit up Low A with a new-found fastball and lots of good off-speed pitches. Literally dominated as much as I’ve ever seen. Now he’s at Peoria and in his first 2 starts it’s been more of the same. He did fall apart at the very end of his last start and allowed 3 base runners and then a grand slam before he got his final 3 outs of the game. But that was only his 2nd High A start and he had a ton of strikeouts and few hits (maybe no hits allowed, I can’t remember for sure) going into that 6th inning. He went from fringe future pitching prospect to front and center as maybe our #3 guy behind Hence and Roby for future starters. The other pick is Levenson in the 5th round. Levenson is at High A where he started the season. In his brief cameo last season at low A he put up very good numbers. And, he did well during Spring Training. He’s continued to be one of the lone “good” hitters at Peoria as no one else around him is hitting. He has power, some speed, and plays ok defense. Plus, he hits for a decent average. Overall, there’s solid odds that he one day gets to St. Louis and that’s a good result for a late 5th round pick.
Overall grade on the draft: C-
If not for Mathews, this draft would be in the low D range thus far. There’s still LOTS of time for that to change. I just haven’t cared for it so far.
Part 2: The Trades
This part looks better than the draft, but we’ll know a lot more in 2-3 years. Other than the O’Neil trade, the Cardinals just gave up expiring contracts for players that weren’t going to be around anyway after last season (unless we had found a way to work out a new contract). They pretty much all ended up in free agency after the season so the teams that got them in the trade didn’t get to keep them either.
Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton for Tekoah Roby, Thomas Saggese, and John King
This trade looked great last year for both teams. Texas won the WS with Montgomery helping to anchor the rotation. Saggese got AA player of the year and Roby became healthy again. Plus, John King helped the Cardinals pen weather a lot of innings last season and did so at a solid performance level. This trade still looks good for our future. Roby and Saggese are still both really talented players and King has been a pleasant surprise again in the pen this year. Roby’s ERA doesn’t look good, but at times he pitches like an ace. Perhaps the shoulder isn’t quite healthy yet. They take a long time to heal. Saggese is trying to play a lot of SS to learn to be more positionally flexible and that may have taken some of his focus away from hitting because he is performing below average at Memphis. I’m not that worried about his hitting. That will come around. But I’m not sure he’s ever going to be anymore than an emergency SS. But heh – they converted DeJong to be an excellent SS and that still seems pretty incredible.
Jack Flaherty for Drew Rom, Cesar Prieto, and Zach Showalter
This trade did not work out at all for the Orioles. Flaherty was terrible. But he’s suddenly really good again this year for the Tigers. Still, he wasn’t re-signing with St. Louis anyway so unloading him for prospects had nothing but upside. Drew Rom tried his hand as a MLB starter last year and provided mostly terrible results other than against his former team. Prieto has hit better this year but still doesn’t really have a position. The hit tool could be really good though. He’s a lot like Burleson where his hit tool is so good that he thinks he can hit everything and sometimes does, but also sometimes makes poor contact. Showalter is getting the kid-glove treatment in the lower levels but his been dominating in limited innings. He could end up as a future starter or lights-out BP guy so overall this was a good trade.
Paul DeJong for Matt Svanson
Let’s be honest – DeJong was worth almost nothing at the time. Still, we found a taker in Toronto and DeJong was terrible there and released. We got an interesting BP piece in Svanson who many ranked as one of if not our best BP prospect (not me, but many). So far, Svanson didn’t pitch much last year and he was knocked around a lot at AA this season up until recently where he’s been better. Not that Granillo has moved up to Memphis, Svanson is the Springfield closer. He’s got a definite shot at pitching in the St. Louis BP in the future, but I’m not penciling him in just yet. We got something for nothing so it was solid.
Jordan Hicks for Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein
Jordan Hicks went off to do fine for Toronto and then signed with the Giants in free agency and has been really good since as a starter. Robberse has really taken a big step forward this year at AAA and looks like he’s likely to be a future rotation piece of the 3, 4, or 5 variety – not sure yet. Kloffenstein will most likely be an up and down starter or end up in middle relief. #4 starter would probably be his ceiling, which would be great if he gets there. With Robberse taking off, this trade looks good too unless you are of the mind thinking we could have signed Hicks and suddenly made him a starter, which seems unlikely.
Going to pause here as this one is getting long.
I recently dropped Levinson into the OFer hitting .250 in A level bucket. It’s not a great source of future MLB talent, but not a total black hole. I remember dropping Nootbaar into that bucket at one point. And it beats the guys who can’t even do that, like Baez, a second round whiff.
Part 2: The Trades (continued)
Genesis Cabrera for Sammy Hernandez
Since we were going to DFA Cabrera at the time, getting something for him was great in general. Sammy Hernandez though has been a wonderful performer thus far as he’s led the Palm Beach offense much of the season while from what I can tell playing a solid catcher. This one may have been a steal. But catchers take a long time to develop so the verdict is still out.
Tyler O’Neil for Nick Robertson and Victor Santos
The Cardinals were more trading away O’Neil’s salary and his likely lackluster relationship with the team more-so than anything else. They told people that he was on the market and therefore his value became probably even lower than it already was. Nick Robertson has been mostly fine. He had to work out some kinks at the beginning of the season and got sent to AAA to do that but he’s been good since he got called up. He recently became injured and may now be out for a bit. Still, we have multiple years of control with him and he could end up being a back-end guy. Victor Santos was coming off an injury and may still be somewhat recovering. But he hasn’t been very good for Memphis. I have little hope that he’ll be more than an emergency BP call-up, but I haven’t watched a lot of him yet. Given how O’Neil started the season for the Red Sox and how our outfielders started the season, this trade doesn’t really look very good. But if we needed the salary to sign pitchers, then it doesn’t look too bad – especially if Robertson becomes a future cog in the pen.
Overall Grade on the Trades: A-
There was almost no way to lose with most of these. Still, we got a lot of excited and desperately needed minor league talent. Roby, Saggese, Robberse, and Showalter look like future impact players. And Hernandez is off to a great start. Plus there’s solid, reliable John King and possibly good BP pieces in Robertson and Svanson. That’s a lot of help for a farm system that was in trouble.
Part 3: The Mostly Free Pick-ups
I’m not going to analyze every player they’ve collected here. There are minor league rule 5 guys, a major league rule 5 guy, waiver wire pick-ups, and independent ball signings. The ones who don’t work out cost almost nothing so you can’t really fail in this category. But you absolutely can succeed if you can find major league talent that can impact your team. I want to highlight 4 players and also call out 4 others as a group of which I’m interested in.
First, the group of 4 that haven’t made a Major League impact yet, but who may at some point. That’s Brian Torres, Kolten Ingram, Jared Young, and Jacob Bosiokovic. Torres was picked up out of Independent ball over the off-season and all he has done is hit, steal bases, and play all over the diamond since he arrived. He’s cooled off a bit lately from his red-hot start. He won the batting title in Indy-ball for 2 years running prior to signing. He’s fun to watch and is a spark plug player. He is older though so take that for what it’s worth. Ingram is a recent waiver wire pick-up that has been passed around via the waiver wire to lots of teams lately. He’s been good in limited action in Memphis and would be our next BP call-up potentially if we need someone. Jared Young has gotten older for a minor leaguer but he’s shown that he can hit well and is doing so for Memphis. He’s 1B/OF and I don’t think he’s much of an outfielder so that’s limiting. Bosiokovic is a past Cardinal minor leaguer who went off to Indy ball and was just recently resigned at the beginning of the season. He’s been good thus far at Memphis and could play in the future BP mix.
Richie Palacios – We all know about Richie. We’ve discussed him a lot on here. We got him for a bit of cash and I was excited from the moment we got him. He was fun to watch in the minors and we all know his story since. He’s been an above MLB average hitter for TB this year. He’s not a real good outfielder, but he’s competent in the corners. We unloaded him for Andrew Kittredge. Kittredge has been an incredibly valuable asset for the Cards BP this year. However, he’s older and in his last year of salary arbitration until he hits free agency. We have desperately needed Kittredge so I don’t really feel upset if Palacios has a career as a solid outfielder.
Michael Siani – Siani was the other guy I was stoked to get last year for nothing when the Reds let him go in waivers. Sure, he can’t hit. And we’ve seen that. But he’s an amazing OF defender. We’ve seen that too. Plus he’s really fast. I was constantly pushing for him to make the team during Spring training because that’s a valuable skillset to have on our bench. Little did I know he’d be starting.
Riley O’Brien – He’s only pitched one inning for us this year but the stuff is tantalizing. Will it still be there when he returns? Who knows. But he might be a good reliever who we got for nothing.
Finally, Ryan Fernandez was picked up in the Rule 5 draft. We figured he’d probably struggle some and we may have to offer him back. Thus far, he hasn’t really struggled. He’s been fine, if not pretty good. He could be a future back-end guy. For now, he’s a solid cog that has helped to reshape our BP.
Overall Grade on these free pick-ups: A
You don’t often get a lot of useful players for nothing. Getting one decent one is good. We got at least 4 who look to be valuable players in the future and a few others that could be supplemental players if the need arises.
Wow jnevel that is a lot of thought and effort. Outstanding analysis! I agree with almost all of it, especially Siani, but I admit that I am becoming more concerned with Roby’s injury since the Cardnals are so quiet about it and considering his history.
Part 4: The Free Agent Signings
This is an area of a lot of consternation for me. I really, really thought that the Cardinals would sign Gray and I thought there was a good chance they would sign Gibson (partly because he fit what they were looking for and partly because he really wanted to be here. And then, I was almost certain they were going to try to sign Yamamoto and if they couldn’t get him because of his price inflating, they would pivot and sign Imanaga. Well, instead of waiting it out, when Yamamoto’s price began to skyrocket, they jumped quickly and signed Lynn. And I was not happy. I’m still not that happy after seeing what Imanaga is doing and what he cost the Cubs. But I will admit that Lance Lynn has been a lot of fun to watch – probably our most entertaining player. That said, here are the 6 free agents that were signed (not counting a couple minor league free agents who haven’t really factored in and who probably won’t factor in):
Sonny Gray – Everyone said he would be good but would probably regress. Well, he hasn’t really regressed at all. He’s allowed a few more home runs. But last year he was likely just a little lucky there. He’s the same dominating pitcher. Good signing.
Kyle Gibson – He’s boring, but he eats innings. I think he’s now at 7 quality starts. He’s a lot like Mikolas except that he has a sweeper that he can employ to actually strike a few guys out. Good signing.
Lance Lynn – Unlike Gibson, Lynn is not at all boring. He’s fiery and fun. His competitive spirit is infectious and that might make those around him better. His ERA looks great. But he still gives up a fair share of home runs and he’s been pretty lucky in his ability to strand runners. I’m not sure he can keep it up. The verdict is still out for me on whether or not this was a good signing, but I’m willing to admit that it’s not as bad as I thought is would be.
Keynan Middleton – He hasn’t pitched yet outside of Spring Training. He has a history of some injuries and they seem to be popping up again. He did look good in ST. But now he’s out again after attempting to rehab. The verdict is still out on this one, but right now this is not a good signing given that we’ve gotten nothing for the money we spent.
Brandon Crawford – Brandon Crawford has been terrible all around. I guess his defense has been ok, but he still doesn’t look real sharp to me. And he hasn’t hit – like at all. But we only signed him due to the Edman injury so he really is just on this team to be the fill in back-up SS to Winn. At $2 million, that’s a small price to pay in the MLB for a bit of security. Still, at this point I think it would have been a better use of our money to get a glove-first minor league SS who was a AAAA player that we could stash at Memphis rather than wasting a spot on the MLB bench. But that’s just hindsight.
Marginal signing.Matt Carpenter – Well, if I was irritated and flabbergasted by the Lynn signing, you should have seen my face when I found out they signed Matt Carpenter! I’m still totally perplexed because no part of Matt Carpenter’s skillset fits with this team. He is redundant everywhere. So to me, this is a wasted blocker on our bench. Fortunately, Ollie isn’t using him every day. And it may also be fortunate that he was hurt some. But I just don’t get it. I’m also keenly aware that he just hit a home run in today’s game so maybe recency bias is going to say I’m completely wrong here.
Overall Grade on Free Agent Acquisitions: B-
Gray has been great and Lynn and Gibson have both been solid. And none of the others have really hurt the club much. I would have rather had a few others, but if there are serious budget restraints, then the front office could have done much worse.
One last section to go. I’ll probably post it tomorrow.
In my opinion the main reason we are even within sniffing distance of a playoff spot is because of Gray, Gibson, and Lynn. I give the front office credit for getting us some reliablity in the rotation. Last year we were routinely down 6-0 after three innings and had no chance to win games. Now at least we have a chance.
It also had to do with poor defense last year as well, but yes, a lot of things have improved by having more competitive pitching.
Wow, great analysis jnevel! After mostly making poor decisions, Mo & Co have looked good in the early returns so far with recent transactions. The Chase Davis pick looks like a big bust, but Mathews might make up for it.
I also did not like either the Lynn nor Carpenter signings. I wanted Montgomery rather than Lynn (after Yamamoto was out of our price range), and felt they signed Carpenter to be sort of a player-coach. And everyone knows I hated the Palacios-Kittredge deal, although Kitty has been a key addition. He is regressing a little of late, but let’s hope it is not a trend.
The starting pitching has indeed helped us, along with the probably better-than-expected maturity from Winn, and the improved defense. Siani has really helped the up-the-middle defense, which is so important to winning.
Overall the FO looks like they have made a bit of a comback. Mo has to sleeping a lot better these days.
But we have had pleasant surprises in King and Siani.
Other than the 2020 draft, the results haven’t been too good. If you look at Flores’s post playing resume, you can see why Mo went for him. He’s a Mo guy through and through, so we just have to wait it out.
I think we will get more out of King Than Roby and Saggese combined.
The pen has been a marvel. Some nice pick ups there, and Lynn and Gibson have done what Mo got them to do.
The other area besides draft and trades/acquisitions is international. That is a train wreck.
In regards to Johnny’s field manager, since I’ve been one of his staunch critics, in all fairness I have to afford the little guy an accolade or two for the job he’s done to have this team at sea level today. He’s managed to not only stay out of the way and not try to be too fancy, but has also done a nice job of not talking. I’ve always maintained that the simple act of him not saying anything would add at least 3 or 4 W’s a season. I salute the Redbird manager…
Bling – our even year drafts have been good to great. The odd year drafts have been bad. Here are the notable players from each:
2016: Carlson, Hudson, Gallen, Edman, Knizner
2017: None
2018: Gorman, Donovan, Nootbaar
2019: TBD on Thompson and Pallante
2020: Winn, Burleson, TBD on Walker and Hence and maybe Bedell
2021: TBD on McGreevey, Graceffo, and Granillo
2022: TBD on Hjerpe, Mautz, Crooks, Scott, Rajcic, Iadisernia, Church, and maybe others
Bling – our even year drafts have been good to great.
Only two 10+ WAR players in that entire group, and one was traded away before making his MLB debut.
As noted in another thread, the Cardinals are downright abysmal in the first and second rounds, which is where you need to have your highest success rates. That is where the Cardinals are the lowest.
Perhaps they need to start using statistical analysis in the draft (which means drafting college hitters not from the Pac-12 in rounds 1 & 2).
I don’t disagree LA, but a lot of the guys above are only in their 2nd or 3rd MLB season or haven’t gotten there yet at all. I believe there’s a great chance that Nootbaar, Donovan, Gorman, Walker, and Winn all achieve that bar. Hence probably does too barring injury. Several others are more in the possible camp.
But yes, I 100% agree that our first and second round picks have not worked out much at all for a long time with the exception of Gorman in 2018 and possibly a few in 2020 TBD. And that is typically where value comes from.
We have 8 years of data on the draft strategy for the Cardinals under Flores, we have 5 years of data for the Orioles.
The Orioles are superior.
but a lot of the guys above are only in their 2nd or 3rd MLB season or haven’t gotten there yet at all.
This is making excuses. Two players in 8 years. Orioles already have two 10 WAR players, they have two others on their team likely to get there and they have the #1 farm system in baseball.
Yeah, but you have to consider that the O’s lost 100 or more games 3 seasons in a row, not counting ’20. They had some pretty nice picks.
Yeah, but you have to consider that the O’s lost 100 or more games 3 seasons in a row, not counting ’20. They had some pretty nice picks.
But again, if we compare just their picks after #30 or later during the last five years, they are smoking both our first and second rounders. And I didn’t even bother comparing the rest of their draft. You don’t get to have the #1 farm system after graduating four players in three years without supplementing your first and second rounders in the draft.
People keep making the same excuses for the Cardinals failed draft strategies.
And if you get good players in the sixth round or later – it is blind luck. Because had you known they were going to be that good, you would have drafted them in the first or second round instead of all the failures you draft.
You have a good idea who will be avaiable probably through the first 5-6 rounds. After that, different teams start going off script and you have no idea who will be there.
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