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The other factor about the traded pitchers is that they may be better because they were traded. The Marlins seem to do a good job of developing pitchers. They might have been the key to unlocking Alcantara and Gallen’s potential. Maybe by staying on the Cardinals, they don’t become dominating pitchers. Who knows?
they may be better because they were traded
But, but, but, it thought the Cards org was good at developing pitching.
Yeah, that’s been the sound of the trumpet for quite some time, but they’ve had some disasters in the few pitchers they’ve developed that looked to be better than run of the mill. Ankiel and Alcantara with Flaherty looking to be added to the list. I can’t think of anyone in recent memory that panned out as an outstanding SP’er over more than a couple of seasons.
1td, that is what bothered me the most about the trade too. Losing Alcantara turned out to be bad but I don’t think anyone at the time thought he was going to be the next Nolan Ryan. Ozuna was ok with the bat here but his defense was hard to watch. And the real kicker was as soon as he arrived to spring training it was announced he had a bad shoulder or elbow. He could barely roll the ball back to the infield instead of throw it. How did the Cardinals miss that in the medicals before the trade or did they just shrug and decide to roll the dice?
bccran, I like Thompson as well but he has had one big league season. We really don’t know if we can count on that performance again. In this day and age $6.5M for a more proven reliever is a good deal.
I’d forgotten about his bad arm, gscottar. I seem to recall that they’d also cite it as a possible reason every time he’d show signs of slumping with the bat. And it wasn’t just his arm in LF that made me shudder. He took horrible routes and the first step looked like a three toed sloth trying to perform a mambo dance…At any rate, Marcell’s a lot easier to forget than Alcantara…Haha!
I think all the guys who established a tradition of developing pitchers are off holding fishing poles, having been systematically replaced with the analytics driven crowd we have now. Bottom to top including the major league dugout. Three Nights in August is out, Moneyball is in. Momentum from the past is winding down. (Sorry, I forgot momentum doesn’t exist).
Haha! Momentum only exists when you have it on your side. I think you’re right in your impression of analytics replacing genuine coaching and instructional ability, Bling. Not too long ago I saw a quote attributed to George Kissell when asked about Hub Kittle…”He’s the Santa Claus of pitching coaches, only he can’t come down the chimney anymore because his bag is so full of tricks. Nobody teaches pitching like he does.”
If you consider what pitching the Cardinals developed from the 2010-2019 drafts, it makes me wonder if there is/was a problem with something in the organization. They have almost nothing to show on the pitching side for 10 years worth of drafts.
And it wasn’t just his arm in LF that made me shudder.
You’re remembering just the negative stuff. He might’ve had a bum arm, but when it came to stealing souvenirs from front row fans in LF, Ozuna could scale the outfield wall like none other.
Proof
Missed it by that much. pic.twitter.com/yQs026Axee
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) April 10, 2019
If you consider what pitching the Cardinals developed from the 2010-2019 drafts, it makes me wonder if there is/was a problem with something in the organization. They have almost nothing to show on the pitching side for 10 years worth of drafts.
Save your breath, I’ve been arguing the same for years. In 2010 the Cardinals had the best combined MiLB record in baseball. The system was loaded and the envy of the baseball world. In 2011 we won the WS with a hoard of home growns. Analytics in that era was a fancy new tool added to the toolbox of the Kissel and Kittle types and their cohorts. That new tool was being wielded by Luhnow, who either knew what he was doing or knew how to hire people who did, or both.
Then, after the 2011 WS, the Astros hired Luhnow, who left town with some folks in tow (cherry picked I am sure), and as I still maintain, some proprietary intellectual property (the smart computers in blingspeak). From there its been a steady downhill glide until today. I was and am convinced that since that exodus, the Cardinals organization has not done an effective job of using analytics to good effect, and I definitely think they are wrong in the apparent belief that analytics can do it all without benefit of traditional cigar chomping evaluators and pine tar coaches putting it to appropriate use, every one of whom has been offloaded in the intervening years. It was a treasure trove of knowledge built up and passed along within the organization over decades, and that self perpetuation cycle has been broken and there is no one left who retains the Santa Clause bag of tricks. Replaced by wonks and their toys.
People may dispute all that, but think about it as you watch a losing record walk in from the pen to take the mound on opening day.
Way off topic, but anyone going to tune in to the “big game?” My neighbor now has about a half dozen or so cars parked in both his driveway and in front his house on the street. I waved and said hello to him this morning at about 9 am as I was headed to the Depot to pick up a couple of bags of grout for a basement project and he was already sporting his Mahomes jersey and KC arrowhead ballcap…Haha! Whenever I think of the Chiefs I’m reminded of Hank Stram encouraging his soldiers as he’s yelling, “C’mon, Lenny! Pump it in there, baby! Just keep matriculating the ball down the field, boys!” Now there’s a guy who really had an extended vocabulary…Haha! Some of those old NFL Film segments are pretty good. In any event, I plan on glancing at the game. At one time up until about the age of 40, I was crazy about NFL football action, but the game took a steady downhill dive until I no longer held much interest. I suffered a similar experience with auto racing. If the same thing happens to Big League baseball, which is certainly a possibility, I’ll be relegated to choosing my favorite checkers team, or ladies volleyball…Haha!
I think your read is dead on accurate, Bling. Those guys are relics of the past. I also think there’s a similar type of fan who’s become an extinct species. I recall the type of guy who used to sit alone in our vicinity in the general admission seats who had with him three newspapers, two scorecards, binocs and radio along with a pack of Phillie Perfectos and a pint of Kentucky Gentleman. At about the 4th or 5th inning, he’d tell us all what was going to transpire in the 7th and 8th and he was almost always right. Nowadays, if you don’t have a telephone, you can’t enter the gate…
bling said:
a) I was and am convinced that since that exodus, the Cardinals organization has not done an effective job of using analytics to good effect,
b) and I definitely think they are wrong in the apparent belief that analytics can do it all without benefit of traditional cigar chomping evaluators and pine tar coaches putting it to appropriate use, every one of whom has been offloaded in the intervening years.
a) Help me understand, please. So you believe that when Luhnow was there, they used analytics to a good effect but since then they use analytics to a not good effect?
What does that mean and what do you base it upon?
b) Why do you suggest they believe analytics can do it all? Are there quotes or articles that support this? Did they follow Marge Schott’s lead and get rid of their scouts and I just missed it?
Seems like a lot of glass-half-empty speculating going on here…
b) The FO is now on their 3rd mlb rookie manager in a row, so they are absolutely not leaning on cigar chomping managerial experience to win games.
In fact, I believe it would knock you right of your chair if we could know just how many of the daily game decisions are scripted from the analytic room BEFORE game time. I found it fairly easy to predict lineup matchups and handedness matchups with the pen last season.
Oli simply has the best seat in the house, as long as he toes the line and doesn’t create philosophical differences. Mo and the analytical room are in charge, the proof is in simply watching it unfold.
a) Help me understand, please. So you believe that when Luhnow was there, they used analytics to a good effect but since then they use analytics to a not good effect?
Yes.
What does that mean and what do you base it upon?
It means, under Luhnow they acquired and/or developed talent that won. Based upon System wide results. including: his first three drafts, 2005, 2006, 2007 produced 24 future major leaguers. Players drafted or acquired and developed during his tenure who contributed to the 2011 World Series: Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia, Allen Craig, Jon Jay. Also based upon strength of the system, especially pitching, at the end of his tenure vs now.
b) Why do you suggest they believe analytics can do it all? Are there quotes or articles that support this? Did they follow Marge Schott’s lead and get rid of their scouts and I just missed it?
Not quotes and articles. Based upon seeing eyes and what can be observed. The old scouts and evaluators are gone. You know that, and we have discussed it some years back when they were cleaning them out. They have guys who can work a radar gun and fill out a nifty spreadsheet which can be input into the system. The guys who could evaluate the unquantifiables and intangibles that can’t be effectively input are all gone. The staff from top to bottom are 100% hard core analytics focused. If it cannot be objectively measured and quantified, it does not exist. It is the philosophy after all. How many who were not analytics based were let go over the last 10 years? The answer is all of them.
The results have deteriorated tremendously. We recently had the most dreadful system wide W-L record ever. Every year we are loading up on cast offs, AAAA and some Indy players, just to field competent teams in the upper levels. Why? What happened to the guys the wonks brought in? Last year and the year before we had to find half a rotation to get us across the finish line. And it turned out to be the good half. This year’s rotation appears to be Wainwright, who was acquired and developed before 2011, Montgomery, Mikolas and Matz from outside, and we hope and pray Flaherty. That is the result, and the result is what matters. Where are they all? If they are pitchers they are hurt,, or underperforming, or playing for somebody else. If they are position players, they are a complimentary piece mostly hitting about .235, or so bad they got sent back down, or playing for somebody else. The whole meat of the order is bought. You can’t argue with results Brian.
Obviously the talent has to exist, but I still think that talent and ability is augmented and enhanced more than most people think by how that talent is deployed, and that even run of the mill pitchers can achieve above average success when their field manager places them in situations that are best suited for them to be successful. Helsley obviously possesses talent and ability. And so did Michael Wacha. We all saw what happened last Oct. and I’m sure a lot of you recall what happened when the baseball was handed to Michael Wacha in the home half of the 9th of a tie ballgame in game 5 of the ’14 NLCS after he’d been shut down and hadn’t worked for 3 weeks because he was hurt. If anyone would tell me that either TLR or Whitey Herzog or any other field manager with a modicum of practical experience may have done the same thing in those two aforementioned instances, I’d say that they were dead wrong. I’m also of the mindset that if TLR wouldn’t have been fed up with the nonsense and felt the need to supposedly “retire,” that the Redbirds would now be flying another couple of WS championsip banners down at Busch Stadium.
I imagine a geek sitting on one of those big balls ripping the green bar paper off the printer, smiling self assuredly, and handing it to his cohort lounging on a beanbag chair. Nice, the optimized WC lineup to die for, Mo will love it. Send it on down to Ollie.
Yeah, there’s always a “cohort” or two involved in one of these surreptitiously planned line-up fiascos…Haha!
I don’t think the changes in the farm system results have anything to do with analytics.
The pitching pipeline was interrupted because they swung hard toward hitting about five drafts ago. 13 players debuted last season including some good promising bats and they have a top 5 prospect in baseball very close. The 2020 draft was one of their best ever and the scouting director is well thought of. Since then, the last two drafts they have returned to a focus on pitching but not enough time has elapsed to fully close the gap.
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