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Imagine rolling out a losing record as your opening day starter? Mikolas and Wainwright, the two plausible choices both ended 2022 with losing records.
This is an embarrassing predicament. Traditionally this is the Ace of the staff kicking things off. It is a recognition and and an honor to be named the opening day starter. But what if you don’t have an Ace or anyone deserving of the recognition?
Do we shun the team’s established starters and home growns and go with last season’s deadline acquisition, Montgomery? A decent enough pitcher, but one that a team with a real rotation didn’t need? 9-6 on the year, 6-3 with the Cardinals down the stretch.
Matz went 5-3. Hudson 8-7. Maybe Pallante, as a AA pitcher who beamed up and went 6-5 he probably did the best job of playing to and probably exceeding expectation.
Whoever it is will likely face off with the BJ’s Alek Manoah, 25 year old righty whose career line is 25-9, 2.60 ERA, 1.012 WHIP. All he did in 2022 was go 16-7, 2.24 ERA, 0.992 WHIP over 31 starts. A legit opening day starter, in other words. Whoever we roll out, it will not be a classic opening day matchup.
AS a lifelong fan of the storied Cardinals franchise with 100+ years of glorious history and 11 flags flying, I resent ownership putting the team in this embarrassing, pathetic and avoidable situation.
In case the situation is not sufficiently concerning, I will point out that it is Ollie who will make the decision. Theoretically at least, but I guess we know the reality.
This will be a joint decision between field staff and front office. Considering how the Cardinals reaped many financial windfalls with the Pujols and Molina farewell tours I would expect Wainwright to be the opening day starter, as he will most likely be receiving a lot of attention throughout the year, assuming he can maintain at least average production.
I am curious, however, if the players participating in the WBC will be impacted in their opening day readiness.
The Opener is also the Home Opener. Unless he cannot drag his body to the mound, it will be Wainwright. I give it 99.9% odds.
Regarding the current state of the rotation, that has already been discussed on other threads.
I’d say it’ll be Wainwright simply because in the entertainment business the entertainers are working for the audience, so you have to give them what they want. At any rate, he’s probably the best choice to take the opening day turn. If he indeed gets the baseball I think he’ll give his team a chance to win the game. If it were my decision, I would have given him the baseball for game 2 of the ’22 NLWC and placed the Silver Slugger in the 9 slot…
Dogs bark, water’s wet, and you just knew this was going to occur…Today’s headline for the lead sports section story in the local StL. paper…”After winter revamp of swing in ‘the lab,’ Paul DeJong eyes decisive spring with Cardinals.”
1td…All of the major headlines are done with…. Pujols, Molina, GM meeting, Contreras and Rolen. Now writers are picking on the scraps to find stuff that people might actually read. That’s a hard job. 🙂 When ST starts there will be some interesting pieces of news printed.
Hey this is off topic.
The only other guy that will be considered is Flaherty… if he has a great spring.
Yeah, but nearly identical stories regarding the ressurection of DeJong’s “swing” have been featured prior to ST for the last 2 or 3 years. Anyone could have predicted this one. If he features a decent ST’ing, I wouldn’t be too awfully surprised if he were the opening day starting SS.
The only other guy that will be considered is Flaherty… if he has a great spring.
If Wainwright can’t go, Jack is a possibility I had forgotten about (not a good sign). 2-1 last year and a career winning record. Matching up with the 16-7 guy.
Seems to me like Waino is going to give it one final go. It would be fitting, I suppose. If not Waino, then Mikolas.
As for the sub .500 records…run support certainly plays a role. I remember Shelby Miller going 6-17 with an ERA in the low 3s after the trade. The bats have to show up to get the W.
Some data to frame the discussion about run support. Mikolas received 4.7 runs of offensive support per start on average last season. Wainwright was at 5.0. Though each pitcher had a losing record, the team’s record during their starts was slightly positive. For Mikolas’ 32 starts, the Cards went 18-14. In Waino’s 32 starts, the team went 17-15.
The team’s record in their starts combined was 35-29, for a .547 winning percentage. Over 162 games, that winning percentage would have left the Cards with 89 wins, four fewer than their real total of 93.
Not being critical of anyone nor am I calling anyone an ace. Just sharing numbers that put the current top of the rotation and their run support into additional perspective.
BW…Those are surprising and telling numbers. I’m particularly surprised that Mikolas received the 4.7 runs in his turns. If you would have asked me, I would have guessed he didn’t receive as much as the 4.7 to work with. I’m guessing that my memory from last season is condensed to a couple of his turns that I recall were excellent starts and that game’s line-up simply didn’t afford him anything at all. Sometimes those types of games really stand out. In any event, I’m reasonably certain that any SP’er would tell us that if he turned around and saw 4 or 5 runs up on the board, he’d demonstrate his appreciation by adding another W to his total. I’m also entirely certain that both Miles and Adam feel as though with 4.7 and 5.0 runs of support per turn, they should have each finished up with a nice looking W/L record for the ’22 season.
Last year’s opening day starter was Wainwright, coming off a 17-7 season the year before. 3.05 ERA, 1.057 WHIP. A legit opening day starter. He went 6 IP, 0 ER vs the Pirates. Our pen closed it out with 3 shutout innings. If he gets the call this time, maybe he can do it again. Let’s hope the invisible mechanical issue is fixed.
Yep, if they could face the Bucs every day, it would be smooth sailing. 13-6 against them last year. But it will be a different schedule in 2023 starting with Opening Day.
Last year, Toronto was 13-7 vs. NL teams and won 92 games in a division far tougher than the NL Central.
I think the opening day starter should be determined during ST. probably come down to these 3:
Waino
Miles
MontyDon’t give to Waino, just ’cause.
If he hasn’t figured out his phantom mechanical issues, then he shouldn’t start.
But, if he does will in the WBC and in any limited ST games then sure, he deserves it.!Waino has earned it, even if they can pull off a trade for a desperately needed ace, I’d still put my money on him.
We probably all agree that Wainwright will get the nod for sentimental reason, if nothing else, but what happens if he can’t go? There is no obvious choice. It probably comes down to who is looking good at the time.
By the way, we will need a 2023 Sleeper thread pretty soon, where we can post our guesses as to who will substantially exceed expectation this year. I couldn’t find last year’s thread, but as I remember it, I guessed Nootbaar, and I count that as a win since nobody ever heard of him at the time.
I’d guess Mikolas would be next in line. I think you did pick the Nootz, Bling. I chose Gorman to rip it up. In a perfect Cardinal world, if we’re debating about who went above and beyond when the ’23 season comes to a close, it’ll mean several of the young kids had a pretty good year. I hope it’s a dead heat for several of them.
Nootbaar was our no. 10 prospect one year ago, but I didn’t participate in the sleeper predictions. 😉
Not sure if this is the thread you were looking for:
Hmm…I was thinking ahead to the ’23 season. Believe it or not, even I can take a bold guess about ’22…Haha!
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