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“Nobody cares what DeJong did 5 or 6 years ago and we should care what Mo did 10 or 12 years ago even less. In both cases the career results trajectory has been on a downslope long enough that it is unrealistic to expect it to turn around at this point.”
I would argue that Mozeliak already turned things around, starting when he traded for Goldschmidt. Since then the Cards have won at least 90 games in each of the three full MLB seasons played.
The fascinating thing about Mo’s tenure is how it divides so clearly into three phases. After the 2007 season, he took over a sub-500 team with an aging MLB roster, and a mediocre farm system. The team immediately reversed course and has finished at least 10 games over .500 in 13 of 14 full seasons under Mo.
But after losing to the Cubs in the 2015 playoffs, for a few years there was a bad, bad, bad string of decisions. Leake, Fowler, Ozuna, Cecil, Holland, Gregerson, and Andrew Miller were all dud signings. And the 2016-18 Cards reflected that, winning just 83-88 games per year. Huge commitments, financial and psychological, were made to players just average or barely better. And to past-their-prime relievers with almost no tread left on their tires.
But then came the Goldy & Arenado trades, and the extraordinary 2020 draft, and now the team is quite well-positioned for the foreseeable future…provided they get a starting pitcher. Or two. And probably a new manager. But the latter will solve itself. If Marmol underperforms he’ll be replaced — if not, well, then he doesn’t need to be. And I fully expect a solid pitching addition in July.
I hate the Contreras signing, but it may not sting until 2025 or even 2026. We’ll see about that one. And although it bears numerous similarities to the Fowler signing debacle, the Contreras downside is less immense if only because catchers don’t play 25 games a month anymore.
Insofar as not hitting in the post-season, I noticed something a while back that was a little alarming. Arenado’s played in a total of 8 post-season games in his career. In those 8 games he’s had 35 PA’s and collected only 5 hits in 33 AB’s for a BA of .152 and just 1 HR with 3 RBI’s. He’s also K’d 9 times. Not quite what I’d call stepping up when there’s a lot of money pushed to the center of the table. Goldy certainly got lost last Oct. but if you look at his career, he’s had several post-season series in which he’s hung up some really nice numbers. I realize 8 games isn’t too much to go on, but I certainly hope Nado can stray from the current pattern in the future.
Well deserved. This club consistently competes, and has not had a losing record in some 15 years.
My main criticism of Mo is that I would like to see more chances given guys who are athletic, and I am not sold on going with in house managers all the time.
Other than that, he has certainly earned the extension. It’s a tough industry to work in. You are in the public eye and entrusted to keep a product successful that people are passionate about.
Mo represents the franchise well, and has one of he best track records of any GM (calling him a GM as I believe the POBO terms is a relatively recent evolution of front office personnel) in club history. He is right up there with Branch “The Brain” Rickey in terms of club success. He has been much better than Bing Devine. Whitey was sort of up and down. The Hernandez and Van SLyke deals really hurt him.
Then there are some forgettable GMs, John Claiborne, “Trader Frank” Lane (who would have traded Musial if Gussie would not have said ‘enough is enough’).
Let’s see if we can win a couple of playoff series now!
“My main criticism of Mo is that I would like to see more chances given guys who are athletic, and I am not sold on going with in house managers all the time.”
I agree on the last part, Mike. A solid veteran manager should be brought in next — assuming the front office refuses to consider Stubby Clapp for whatever reasons.
But I’m not sure what you mean by “more chances given guys who are athletic.” You mean, when drafting? Or in what way? The current 25-man roster seems strong in the field and on the bases, and Walker & Winn are on the way. I seek clarification, good sir!
Bob Reed, I agree there are always reasons to hope that can be found. The Goldy and NA acquisitions were very good ones, no question. But you have to put against that trading away the Cy Young Alcantara and also Galan. You have to put against that clearing out Arozarena who now holds the MLB record for homers in a single post season. Giving away Garcia, whom we apparently didn’t know could play center field. It could be argued he has traded away as much value as he has acquired.
The 2020 draft class is exciting, but I caution that, besides Burly, none have been tested in AAA yet. A lot of what we hoped would be impact players looked good in the Texas League. It cannot be doubted that Mo’s system stinks at producing impact players. The whole heart of the order and most of the rotation are acquisitions developed somewhere else, so I am very hesitant to chisel in stone guys still working their way here. I get a lot of pushback, but I’ve got a lot of history on my side.
Amongst the role players and complementary pieces, there are some gems, albeit not so much the ones that were supposed to be the gems. A lot of guys are knocking on the door, or are about to, hitters and pitchers. Some touts have sputtered and will give it another try. It will be a fun season to follow along. We will have to see what happens.
Amongst the role players and complementary pieces, there are some gems, albeit not so much the ones that were supposed to be the gems.
Ain’t that the truth. During their minor league years Nootbaar and Donovan were flying way below the radar. You could say the same about Edman, They all have one thing in common… hard work and big-time hustle. Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper to find the real gems.
Ps… I have to admit that I gave Donovan the slightest of chances to play in St’ Louis. I always liked Edman but didn’t foresee his rise into the core of the team. As for Nootbaar…. someone obviously saw something in him that was way more important than his name.
They all have one thing in common… hard work and big-time hustle. Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper to find the real gems.
Exactly so. Critically important attributes which do not lend themselves to objective measurement. You can’t point the gun and write down the number. How do you come up with the number to be input? You do not have grizzled cigar chompers with pine tar in their veins to tell this guy from that. What the computer spits out can’t be any better than what goes in.
Funny. I just posted something about Donovan on another thread, and added a comment about Carlson being vulnerable at CF. Then, I get to this thread and find out that blingboy an 14NyquisT had already beaten me to the punch.
“But I’m not sure what you mean by “more chances given guys who are athletic.”
They just seem a little slow to embrace guys like Tommy Pham (going back a few years), Harrison Bader, Ty O’Neill, and of late Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia. Thus I am talking more about young players early in their big league careers. They draft well, but seem to get a little impatient when guys are first getting their feet wet in the bigs.
Back a few years ago they insisted on keeping Brandon Moss in the lineup over Pham, when Moss was flailing away and Pham was an up and coming younger player with an exciting mix of speed and power. Pham also struck out a lot, but was much more “toolsy” than Moss and had a lot more upside.
They brought Dexter Fowler in rather than give Bader a shot at the full time center field post. O’Neill was in and out, although to be fair his career has had a track record of injuries. Something seemed to indicate to them that Arozarena and Garcia would not be as good as they have been. I really liked Montero as well, but could not argue with including him in the deal for Nolan Arenado.
To their credit they have given Carlson a lot of time. Cranny has noted that their philosophy is changing some and the FO wants to be more patient with some of their young talent. No doubt, Walker and Winn will get every opportunity.
And on a side note, speaking of Bader, I read an article recently on “the 10 best baseball cards to buy before the season is under way.” Cards that the article felt had a good chance to increase in value. One of the 10 was Harrison Bader’s rookie card. The comments were that once Bader came back late last season, he showed that exciting speed/power combo I mentioned in regards to Pham. Plus he plays world class defense. A healthy Bader in 2023 playing in New York could gain a lot of publicity.
The article did not say this, but it seems the Yankees are a great way to cure former Cardinal players who are under-performing. It did wonders for Luke Voit, and then Matt Carpenter found the fountain of youth for awhile. Maybe Bader is next.
bikemike’s mention of Brandon Moss prompted me to check into Rob Kaminsky’s status. The former Cardinal’s lefty first rounder (2013) is looking for a job. Same draft class as Oscar Mercado.
Well, no question about Bader, BikeMike. He grew up in that area and possesses an animated exuberance that matches perfectly with the city of NY. And let’s face it…He now plays CF for the NY Yankees. If Harrison performs well while flashing that smile out there in CF at Yankee Stadium, he’ll get more press than the Commander in Chief…Haha!
I just looked it up and was surprised to see that Rob Kaminsky has only thrown 4.2 innings at the Major League level, and that was for the Cardinals in 2020.
That Bader-Montgomery deal is interesting. We certainly have the early edge, but it might look a lot different a few months from now. Maybe not – time will tell. But recent history has not been good to us in deals with the Bombers.
I dunno about that, bikemike. Gallegos for Voit is the most recent prior trade and it has been just fine. Luke was hot early, but turned into a journeyman who is currently without a team. Gallegos has been steady.
Good point on the Gallegos-Voit deal. Voit found a niche as a Yankee and surprised a lot of people, but has not maintained a high level of production. At this point their bWAR numbers are similar, Voit at 5.6 and Gallegos as 4.1. Relievers do not fare too well on WAR though as they only get a few outs here and there. But usually the outs are valuable and can impact a game in a way that is tough to quantify. It’s sort of the pitcher’s version of speed and the stolen base. A speedster with the skill to steal bases can impact a game in ways that advanced metrics are not able to easily capture.
And of course if we go back a little ways on our dealings with the Empire, maybe the all time greatest deal we made with the Yankees was getting a minor league outfielder named Willie McGee for lefty Bob Sykes.
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