Mikolas cashes in

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This topic contains 75 replies, has 19 voices, and was last updated by Avatar gscottar 2 months, 1 week ago.

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  • #83034
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    NJ315
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    Of course is not a slam dunk, nothing is but the stay the course has them going backwards since 2011. I know the did go the WS in 2013 so lets say since 2014. This year I can see taking a step forward mainly because of Goldy but as the team is constructed right now I see a wildcard spot. We can see what happens in the playoffs. Short of a title is not good enough to validate their current model. I know I am in the minority but just making the playoffs gets old. Take a risk a big one it may or may not work nothing is for sure. But at least you tried something different. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is not wise.

    #83035
    Brian Walton
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    Every year is different, NJ. If they miss the playoffs this year, I will be with you. I am not assuming that yet, though. Most observers (including the odds-makers) see the Cards as competitive as any team to win the division. There is no clear favorite.

    #83037
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    NJ315
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    So if the make the playoffs whether as division winners of wildcard it will validate their current model going forward? We will see going forward how many years of making the playoffs without a title will be good enough. I am not getting any younger.

    #83038
    stlcard25
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    The Cards’ biggest problem is that the farm system has “only” turned out average to good players lately, with no stars or superstars since Matt Carpenter, who has been borderline at times. Look at the guys who’ve missed on stardom in the time since Marp, for various reasons:

    Shelby Miller
    Oscar Taveras
    Carlos Martinez
    Trevor Rosenthal
    Michael Wacha
    Alex Reyes
    Carson Kelly
    Luke Weaver

    All of these guys with the possible exception of Wacha were top 50 or higher prospects at least on some lists. The best results of this bunch belong to Cmart, who has been good but only really had one great season. It sure seems like a lot of busts or flame outs from that group, and that leaves out guys who turned top 100 status into solid play but never even sniffed stardom like Wong, Piscotty, Marco etc. The big value for the Birds is that a bunch of lightly viewed guys turned into plus regulars such as Marp, Dejong, and Bader (would also add Flaherty as a surprise overachiever thus far).

    If one of the above became a star (and the numbers alone say they should have produced at least a couple star players), the team would look that much better.

    #83039
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Many people dont realize how much salaries for the existing team will rise next year. Just to bring back the existing team would cost almost $200 million in payroll. Add in other 40 man roster costs and the team is easily in tax territory. Anyone think the team will pay the tax? Anyone think they will have the 3rd to 4th highest payroll in baseball? And that would be without filling any holes. Now add in a committment to Kimbral or Harper. You can dream all you want but reality eventually catches up to you.

    #83040
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    14NyquisT
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    I should have mentioned the intangibles of a mostly empty DL, a rookie or two stepping in ala Bader in
    ’18, plus if the FO decides that keeping their mistakes off the field would be better for the team. These go into the luck column.

    #83041
    Brian Walton
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    NJ, it is much more about getting into October healthy and hot than having the biggest payroll, the best team on paper in February or even winning the most games in the regular season. Like I just posted on the Better in 2019 thread, the last two times the Cards won the World Series, they had the 13th-best and 8th/9th-best regular season record. I do understand why you are impatient, though. It is just too bad there is no magic formula.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by Brian Walton Brian Walton.
    #83050
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    gscottar
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    CC, on the flip side the Cardinals could potentially have over $65M coming off the books after this year:

    Goldy 15.5
    Carp 14.75
    Ozuna 12.25
    Gyroko 8.0
    Wacha 6.35
    Gregerson 5.0
    Waino 2.0
    Wieters 1.5

    Obviously some of those players will come back but I bet some of them won’t also. We don’t know which ones yet but regardless the Cardinals will have PLENTY of payroll room to work with before they have to worry about the luxury tax.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #83072
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    forsch31
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    mspaid

    …. In addition to Goldschmidt and Miller they needed to release Fowler, sign McCutcheon for right, sign Kimbrel and then you are ready to play baseball…..

    This is the second time you have indicated that the Cardinals should have signed McCutcheon. Maybe you should look at his stats compared to Fowler and reconsider.

    McCutcheon (2016-2018)
    .263/.356/.446/.802

    Fowler (2016-2018)
    .248/.354/.425/.779

    Fowler (2016-2017)
    .271/.378/.467/.845

    If you look at their counting stats for a 162 game average for that same 3 year period, there is not much difference and that is after the disastrous 2018:

    McCutcheon – 31 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 26 HRs, 11 SBs, 8 CSs, 83 BBs, 141 Ks
    Fowler – 28 2Bs, 8 3Bs, 19 HRs, 13 SBs, 5 CSs, 88 BBs, 146 Ks

    According to Baseball Reference dWAR, they are both below average fielders.

    Don’t be fooled by recognizing the name. Consider all the facts and aim higher if you are going to replace Fowler.

    #83101
    jj-cf-stl
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    GS,
    To get to 200mil, CC is using estimated 2020 salaries. Your 65mil is based on existing 2019 salaries, which could be estimated at 100mil in 2020.

    Of your list I’d expect Carp back with Wacha and Goldy as possibles. Lets be generous and estimate their raises at 30mil, if all three return.

    I don’t expect Gyorko or Ozuna back and CC probably estimates them at ~30mil in 2020.

    #83102
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Martinez 11.5
    Mikolos 16.5
    Wacha 13
    Reyes 2.5
    Flaherty .5

    Cecil 7.5
    Miller 11.5
    Leone 3
    Gant 3
    Hicks .5
    Gomber .5
    Ponce .5
    Waino 2

    Molina 20
    Carp 18.5
    Wong 10
    DeJong 1.5
    Goldy 30
    Ozuna 22
    Bader .5
    Fowler 16.5
    Gyrko 5.5
    O’Neill .5
    Martinez 2.5
    Pena .5

    Salaries not exact. I think that totals 197. Still owe Leake and some other stuff.

    #83105
    stlcard25
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    Ozuna could hit like his buddy Barry Bonds and still not come back. I don’t see much chance that Wacha returns either. Either he’ll have a healthy and effective season and get his $13M multi year dwal elsewhere or he’s his usual self and gets something like a poor man’s Lance Lynn deal with a small market team. 1 year/$6.5 million or so.

    #83111
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    gscottar
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    I understand what CC is saying. I’m just saying it is highly unlikely that all of those guys will return. If there are no in-season extensions or team options exorcised the Cardinal payroll at the end of the season will be about $102M. The luxury tax threshold for 2020 is $208M. The Cardinals would have $106M to do whatever they need to do which could include signing Goldy and bringing Carp back. Those two seem highly likely to me. I think it is likely the other six don’t return which would still leave the Cardinals $50M in payroll space. Of course when I say payroll space I am talking about the luxury tax line. Do we really believe the Cardinals would dare get close to that line? Of course not but they could if they wanted to.

    Of course there is also the possibility that some trades occur to free up more space. CMart’s 11.7M could always be shipped out and maybe they can convince someone to take a small portion of Fowler’s 16.5M per season.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #83143
    jj-cf-stl
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    CC,
    Just correcting Gyorkos 2020 salary and adding Leake puts your numbers over the 208mil cap.

    #83144
    jj-cf-stl
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    GS,
    To re-enforce your point about roster turnover all we have to do is remember our last outfield.

    From mid-December until July 31st, we traded Grichuk, Pham and Piscotty. Don’t blink!

    #83151
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Gyrko’s salary doesn’t need correcting. Pre 2019 I would postulate that if they wanted him back in 2020 that they could decline his option and sign him to a market rate contract which I estimate at $5.5 million. That of course could change based on 2019 performance.

    #83158
    jj-cf-stl
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    Wow, ok, I’ll take goldy for 4/40 plz!

    #83179
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    gscottar
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    I understand a lot of this is hypothetical because we don’t know what the 2019 stats will be but by going with the odds I would say for 2020:

    Goldy comes back at $28M for 5 years
    Carp’s optioned is picked up for 18.5M
    Ozuna is offered a QO and he turns it down and goes elsewhere. Enter O’Neill and/or JMart.
    Wacha could go either way. I don’t see a long term deal and I’m not sure they offer the QO because he might take it. Either way I don’t see him here in 2020.
    Waino surely won’t be back in 2020 but even if he does it would be minimal $.
    Gyroko for sure won’t be here in 2020. I’m not even sure he will be here for 2019.
    Cecil likely won’t survive 2019 so he for sure won’t be here in 2020. The only question is can they convince someone to take on a tiny portion of salary in a trade or do we just release him.
    Ditto for Fowler.
    Gregerson for sure won’t be here for 2020.
    50% chance CMart is here in 2020. He seems to be skating on thin ice to me.

    Bottom line is their will be some payroll coming off the books before 2020. Calculating a payroll assuming everyone is coming back seems seems pointless to me. There is no way it will happen.

    #83183
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    CariocaCardinal
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    But if the team performs well there will be significant pressure to bring the existing team back or at least fill the holes of those who have left.

    #83189
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    FWIW, I agree with the approach of building the base case with current commitments, which will probably end up being high in the end. Then back off from that with personal assumptions/predictions.

    #83193
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    gscottar
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    Well they aren’t actually commitments if they aren’t under contract.

    #83194
    BlackHillsCard
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    Cecil likely won’t survive 2019 so he for sure won’t be here in 2020. The only question is can they convince someone to take on a tiny portion of salary in a trade or do we just release him.
    Ditto for Fowler.

    Both of them also have full no-trade clauses. Good luck getting them to waive.

    #83196
    Brian Walton
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    Just my opinion, but assume options will be picked up until they aren’t. Back off from worst case.

    My guess is that both Cecil and Fowler would be fine with getting a fresh start elsewhere, but their contracts are not tradeable. Their money has to be considered sunk cost in payroll analysis.

    #83226
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    gscottar
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    I was listening to the Front Office show on MLB radio today and Jim Bowden trashed the Cardinals pretty good for the Mikolas extension. He thought $68M was a huge overpay for just one good year of MLB performance. He also cited the Cards as being pretty bad at long term extensions as he mentioned Fowler, Wong, Craig, and the offer to Heyward. The only long term deal he liked was Holliday.

    I generally like Jim Bowden although I know some on here do not. I usually find him insightful and entertaining but I think he is off base on Mikolas. Sure there is some risk involved but if Mikolas had another good season in 2019 he would have cost much more than $68M to bring back.

    FYI, Bowden also said the Cardinals would be a perfect fit for Kimbrel although he doubted they would do it.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Avatar gscottar.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #83234
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    NJ315
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    It was premature to extend him now. But most people think is a smart cost savings in case he has another great season driving his price up. On the other hand there is the risk he won’t be as good for the duration of the contract. So there was risk either way. I would have waited but the cost savings won the day.

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