How Much Money?

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  • #165210
    Ratsbuddy
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    How much money comes off the books at the end of this season? I know we are done with Fowler for sure. And very good chance we are done with both Carpenter and Miller. And perhaps that goofball Carlos Martinez as well.

    So, any idea how much $$$ we are going to shed in payroll at the end of 2021?

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #165229
    Cardinals27
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    An interesting question. We all know that Carpenter, CMart, and Miller are all likely in their last year. 42.5 mill between the 3 minus Carps buyout. But including Fowler and possibly Leake there is quite a bit of savings. But then again Arenados contract, plus raises for Flaherty, O’Neill, Reyes, etc will offset some of that.

    #165230
    Cardinals27
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    Plus I wonder if they’d non tender Gant. Similar to Brebbia.

    #165242
    gscottar
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    Cards have about $80M on the books for 2022 right now. Add another $30M for arbitration raises and that brings the total to $110M. I would say we would have around $50M to spend in the offseason.

    #165273
    Ratsbuddy
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    And what are we going to spend that $50M on? Again, we will have to wait and see how the season plays out but it seems like we may very well need an outfielder as the major target.

    With Arenado, DeJong, Edman, and Goldschmidt the infield seems set.

    With Hicks returning along with Gallegos and Cabrera is the main relief corps set?

    With Flaherty back along with Hudson and Mikolas that will help the starting pitching.

    But then again, as we’ve seen lately, injuries sure can change things.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #165277
    gscottar
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    It wouldn’t surprise me to see Yadi and Waino back so that will cut into the $50M.

    #165283
    jj-cf-stl
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    Your 30mil on Arbs is high imo, GS. My quick and dirty estimate since you posted the 30mil, is 21mil.

    I’d like to remind that playing time is the biggest factor. Most of our Arbs have/will miss significant time this season.

    #165284
    jj-cf-stl
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    Arenado 29.4mil, Goldy 26, Mikolas 17, Molina 9, Wainwright 8, DeJong 6.167 = 95.567mil

    Arbs, Flaherty 5, Gant 3, Bader 3, Reyes 2, Hicks 1, Hudson 2.5, O’Neill 2.5, Gallegos 1.25 = 20.25mil

    I need to look up a comparable for hicks saves.

    14 players for 115.8mil ballpark

    #165286
    dac8b9
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    I heard on the radio that the front office was treating this as a transition year to find out what we have in these young players. Hopefully those questions have mostly been answered and they address the most pertinent needs of the team. What I’m waiting for them to say is if spending will return to pre COVID levels this off-season. We had no fans last season and did not have full capacity for this entire season either, so Dewitt may want to ease up spending. If our budget is $130 million instead of $160 million, we could be in for a rough offseason.

    #165288
    ZTR
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    Mikolas, lol

    How many innings has he pitched in 2020 and 2021?

    Didn’t he get hurt at the end of a very pedestrian 2019?

    #165296
    mudville
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    I agree that Mikolas’ contract is looking more and more like money wasted. I wonder how Mozeliak’s record for money squandered compares to other GM’s.

    If they sign a pitcher this offseason, I hope and pray that they don’t pay megadollars to a guy whose spin rate went up 500 rpm’s recently, since MLB apparently intends to continue the crackdown on the sticky stuff.

    Mo, please don’t saddle us with a megacontract for a pitcher that isn’t worth it.

    #165326
    gscottar
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    Your 30mil on Arbs is high imo, GS. My quick and dirty estimate since you posted the 30mil, is 21mil.

    Probably so. I was thinking of the worst case scenario. Flaherty’s injury will probably drive his number down.

    #165328
    gscottar
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    What I’m waiting for them to say is if spending will return to pre COVID levels this off-season.

    If our budget is $130 million instead of $160 million, we could be in for a rough offseason.

    There are a lot of unanswered questions, the new CBA being one of them, but I see no legitimate reason for spending not to go back to pre-covid levels since all of the covid restrictions have been lifted attendance wise.

    #165366
    mspaid
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    I see a legitimate reason why spending may NOT go back to pre-covid levels. JUNIOR.

    #165398
    jj-cf-stl
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    Flaherty will get a bump but how many GS will he miss?

    Gant has a nice first half, but his durability this season is in question for me.

    Bader has less than 100 PA,s with his peers at 300. He needs to finish strong to get a nice bump.

    I gave Reyes a nice bump but his career is based on IL time.

    Hicks same.

    Hudson, nice start, and now a lost year.

    #165412
    mudville
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    I’m not sure there’s still going to be arbitration at all after the next CBA.

    #165574
    1964cards
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    Using Cots Baseball Contracts as a reference, I come up with an estimated payroll commitment just short of $111M for 2021.

    $83.5M Committed to Arenado, Goldy, Mikolas and DeJong
    $2.5M Committed to buyouts of Carp and CMart … assuming they will buyout both contracts
    $4.0M estimate of Arb settlement with Gant (third-year arbitration)
    $15.0M estimate of Arb settlements with Flaherty, Bader, Reyes and Hicks (second-year arbitration)
    $5.0M estimate of Arb settlements with Hudson, O’Neill and Gallegos … Webb & Dean released (first-year arbitration)
    $6.0 estimate of at lease ten pre-Arb contracts for Edman, Poncedeleon, Helsley, Cabrera, Knizner, Woodward, Carlson, Sosa, Williams and Oviedo
    $(5.6)M payment from Colorado for Arenado’s contract

    This accounts for 22 players on Major League Contracts.

    Assuming a target payroll of $150M you have approximately $40M available. If DeWitt moves to $160M payroll than you have approximately $50M available.

    Again rough estimate … I am sure I probably missed a few things.

    #165588
    gscottar
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    That is pretty much the same estimate I came up with 1964. We should have around $50M available, minus what it takes to bring Yadi and Waino back.

    #165596
    ZTR
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    They simply cannot bring Molina and Wainwright back.

    Trade them to a contender for whatever you can get and let them have another playoff season or two.

    Its time to say good bye and open up those spots for the rebuild.

    #165603
    dac8b9
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    They simply cannot bring Molina and Wainwright back.

    Trade them to a contender for whatever you can get and let them have another playoff season or two.

    Its time to say good bye and open up those spots for the rebuild.

    As much as that might make sense to us, ZTR, we both know this organization with this ownership doesn’t do rebuilds. They might do a retool, but they will always try to be competitive, even if it is superficially. Dewitt isn’t trying to spend to build a superteam, he wants to spend just enough to have a realistic shot at the division. Something in the 88-92 win range by our teams internal projections. Once we do enough to get to that, we stop making moves. We don’t follow normal cycles of rebuilds, periods of contention, then another rebuild. Dewitt seems to think he would make more money being reasonably competitive every year rather than doing what it takes to build a superteam, which may involve tanking for high picks.

    #165610
    mudville
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    deleted

    #165625
    mspaid
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    If this team has a payroll cap of 150 million then they will not field a good team 2022…one that has a”good” chance to win the WS. It will be a “Junior” competitive team…mediocrity.

    #166320
    LACardFan
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    How much are they going to reduce payroll next year due to a decline in fan attendance per game, given that they have said many times that payroll is based on attendance?

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