How Good Could the Offense Be in 2022?

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  • #175402
    stlcard25
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    The Cards spent most of the year mired in offensive inconsistency. While it was the pitching that ultimately had to improve to give the team a shot at the playoffs and the defense was excellent all year, there seems to be a divide on here as to whether the offense is good enough for a contending team.

    First, the raw stats. The Cards ranked 10th of the 15 NL teams in runs with 706. They were 8th in hits, 9th in doubles and triples and 6th in home runs. They were 5th in batting average, 11th in on base percentage and 7th in slugging. All this added up to a .725 team OPS, good for 8th in the NL. In park adjusted stats, the Cards had a 101 OPS+.

    So it appears that the Cards have an average offense. Given that and the multitude of returning players, one could argue that they could stand pat and go with the same crew in ’22. Would that be smart?

    #175405
    stlcard25
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    Catcher-Yadier Molina 86 OPS+, 1.8 WAR. The needle is definitely trending down here as it’ll be Yadi’s last year. He really struggled at the plate after his hot start. Also present is backup Andrew Knizner 47 OPS+, -0.2 WAR. The Cards need his bat and defense both to be a little better. In the wings is Ivan Herrera, who was better than people realize at Springfield, but will likely need at least a full year in Memphis.

    #175406
    stlcard25
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    1B-Paul Goldschmidt 143 OPS+, 6.2 WAR. Goldy was awesome, especially in the second half. I will refuse the temptation to doubt him again, even if he gets off to a slow start. Pencil him in for 150+ games and we will be well off. It’s hard to say he’ll be another 6 WAR guy, but >4 is likely.

    #175407
    stlcard25
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    2B-Tommy Edman 93 OPS+, 3.7 WAR. An admirable fill in for Wong, Tommy may be a super sub long term. Still, you could do worse at the Keystone. Nolan Gorman probably takes the spot before long, with Donovan waiting in Memphis too.

    SS-Paul Dejong 86 OPS+, 1.6 WAR and Edmundo Sosa 106 OPS+, 3.2 WAR. Hey, we have a 5 WAR SS! Who needs to go after Seager or Story, right? Well…Dejong’s arrow is definitely pointed down and we’ve seen Sosa’s story before. I would be hesitant to project more than half this WAR total for 2022. It’s a potential upgrade, for sure.

    3B-Nolan Arenado 121 OPS+, 4.2 WAR. A bit of an understated first year for Arenado, he still put up solid numbers. We have seen right handed power bats struggle their first year in StL and then bounce back (Goldy, Ozuna). I’d bet on that for 2022 with Arenado being a 5+ WAR All Star again.

    LF-Tyler O’Neill 150 OPS+, 6.4 WAR. The breakout star of 2021, it’s difficult to project a down ballot MVP year from Mr Canada again, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he hit 45 HRs either. He’s a plus defender so he has value any way you look at it.

    CF-Harrison Bader 116 OPS+, 3.9 WAR. If Bader is an above average hitter, he’s a borderline All Star. I’m not totally convinced, but his Gold Glove defense plays. It’s hard to imagine the Cards being better without Bader on the team next year unless the upgrade is huge elsewhere to move him.

    RF-Dylan Carlson 117 OPS+, 3.2 WAR. This is one of the areas I could see the team quietly getting better in 2022. Just 22, Dylan had a solid year and projects to get better as he gets more confidence at the plate. He was pulled late for defense more times than I expected, but my “Matt Carpenter of the OF” comp is looking solid. I’d expect Dylan to add 10-15 points of OPS+ and another win to his total. Lars Nootbar 105 OPS+, 0.7 WAR is also an option. Guys like Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Nick Plummer likely wait at Memphis to compete for OF spots. The bench could be the biggest beneficiary.

    Thus ends the starters. I’d posit that the team could add a power DH bat and probably be as well off as this year if not better without much gain from any of the likeliest spots (Arenado, Edman/Gorman, Carlson, bench). But it is at least possible that this team has a pretty good lineup in 2022, especially if a couple of Yepez, Gorman, Burleson, Plummer show up ready to play.

    #175408
    blingboy
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    We can’t dismiss the chance that we will see more of what we saw for 5 of the last six months.

    #175413
    gscottar
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    I don’t deny the offense could use a little boost. I am just saying that my expectation is they will depend on the boost coming from Gorman, Yepez, Burleson and/or a low cost LH bat like Brad Miller. I don’t have a problem with that as long as they beef up the pitching depth.

    Also, remember that we burned a LOT of AB’s this year with Carpenter, Williams, Thomas, Nogowski, and Moroff. None of those players will be back in 2022 so surely the replacements will give us more production.

    #175414
    bicyclemike
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    We have more potential improvements than regressions on our club. Plus we should have better bench offense with the likes of Gorman and Yepez taking ABs from Carpenter and DeJong, although being rookies, and young ones at that, the improvement may be slight.

    I go with what we have, as pitching will likely be better as well. All this could change with injuries though.

    #175418
    bccran
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    BB hit the nail on the head. Gotta look at what they did when they were pumping on most cylinders. Not the season long numbers.

    #175422
    Euro Dandy
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    bccran, I think bling was saying the opposite of what you think he was saying. Maybe he’ll clarify.

    #175424
    kscardfan
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    One move that wouldn’t break the bank and vastly improve the leadoff spot, or 2 hole moving the lineup down a slot is Starling Marte. OBP guy. if you don’t improve this offense the pressure on the Pitching staff, that has so many questions of it’s own, is gonna lead to a repeat of the first 5 months of this year I fear.

    #175425
    Euro Dandy
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    kscardfan, your post reminds me that Goldy had the 2 spot locked up in the batting order. Will be interesting to see if Goldy bats 2nd next year to give a clue whether or not Mo gave Shildt help setting the batting order.

    #175426
    kscardfan
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    Good point. I’m betting he moves to 3 hole. It will be interesting to see.

    #175427
    blingboy
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    I think to start off the season we will see the batting order we saw during the winning streak.

    #175428
    stlcard25
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    I think Dylan Carlson will be the leadoff man if his OBP improves and Goldy will stay at 2, followed by O’Neill and Arenado. I wish we had a solid #5 hitter, but it seems like that won’t be the kind of pickup we make this off-season.

    #175429
    PugsleyAddams
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    The sky is the limit baby. Scotty’s “we burned a lot of AB’s this year with Carpenter, Williams, Thomas, Nogowski and Moroff” were right on…… gotta love those HOGS, Scotty!
    I also echo StlCard25’s sentiments in regards to Carlson having a big offensive onslaught in 2022. And with “Pez” waiting in the wings to be our DH for oh……about the next 10-12 years, what’s not to be bullish on the offensive side of things in St. Louis for the coming years?

    #175432
    ZTR
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    In theory, increased OBP will lead to more baserunners which should lead to more runs.

    In practice, how do they consistently increase OBP? It’s easy for me to type it.

    Is it a different approach at the plate with existing players or do we need a few different players or both?

    #175527
    kscardfan
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    Replacing bench pieces with better bench pcs doesn’t add that much strength to a lineup. This line up offensively was weak after 3-4 players. Need to strengthen that lineup.

    #175528
    bccran
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    With Edman working to improve his OBP over the off season, and Donovan in the wings, we probably have leadoff covered.

    #175529
    Ratsbuddy
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    Arenado should hit 3rd and Goldschmidt 4th. Let Edman lead off and Carlson bat 2nd.

    Perhaps in certain situations Bader could lead off and Edman hit 2nd. Or vice versa. But Arenado and Goldschmidt should ABSOLUTELY hit 3rd and 4th.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #175531
    stlcard25
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    Why take 40-50 PAs apiece from Goldy and Arenado and give them to the below average hitting Edman? It just makes no sense to have them move down a spot for someone like Edman. Now, if we had a guy who was a hitter comparable to those guys to move them down, then go for it.

    #175532
    blingboy
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    Agree 25, putting a .300 OBP guy ahead of your RBI guys is not a good move. That OBP needs to be down in the lineup until it substantially improves or can be replaced.

    #175535
    bccran
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    His draft year at Stanford, Edman had an OBP of .358. His carer minor league OBP was .353. At AAA, before being promoted to the Cardinals, his OBP was .363. 2021 was his first full season in the majors. Have patience. Give him time.

    #175538
    Wooster
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    I guess Edman was lead off because of his speed. When he did get on base he was a great base runner. Just wasn’t on base enough. We really didn’t have anybody good at lead off. Bader was an absolute disaster at lead off and couldn’t hit unless he was in the bottom of the order. I would be very serious about getting a true hitter at shortstop. Its a wasted slot right now. Our method last season was to give up run production by compensating with great pitching. That really is not sustainable. We will remain in the middle of things like that. The Brewers actually were the same way but their pitching held up long enough to clinch the division. To get into post season we will have to boost hitting. From what I’ve read pitching will be different next year which is needed. Really a patchwork arrangement right now. I hope our guys do some batting over the off season and not just play golf unless they’re practicing for swinging at those balls below their ankles.

    #175543
    stlcard25
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    Have patience. Give him time.

    We can have patience with him while he hits lower in the lineup too.

    #175544
    MP415d
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    Eddie Rosario

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