How disappointing is Harrison Bader?

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    well I never wanted fowler on the team in the first place.

    Same here, that contract was ill-advised and remains to hurt this team by the FO forcing fowler to be a regular. Maybe he should be wearing “$$” on his back instead of #25. His play has been just a bonus for the Cardinal faithful. “fowler” has become a synonym for wasted money.


    Sooner or later, they’re going to have to bite the financial bullet and put him on the bench. That’s why some feel we have 3 OF slots to fill, not just 2.



    That time is now and we do have 3…O’Neil, Bader & Edman & 4 when Carlson joins the team. Fowler should be nothing more than a 13th player bench player.


    Carlson looks good. Bader and O’Neill haven’t proven themselves at the major league level so far offensively.


    .236 / .328 / .401 / .729 / 97 ops+ is NYY CF Aaron Hicks career slash line, ages 23 – 29.
    .236 / .320 / .393 / .713 / 90 ops+ is Harrison Baders career slash line, ages 23 – 25.

    Ages 23 – 25, Hicks accumulated 920 PA’s, very similar to Baders 925 PA’s for the same ages. During this span Hicks posted a .225 / .306 / .349 / .655 / 81 ops+. Harrison is currently a 90 ops+ along with elite CF D. Hicks D is not elite, so imo, through their age 25 seasons Harrison clearly had higher field value, age appropriate.

    Working off a 81 ops+, the NYY gave Hicks 361 PA during his age 26 season. Long story short, Hicks posted a 64 ops+ on the season, adjusting his career ops+ to 77 in 1289 PA’s.

    For his age 27 season the NYY gave Hicks another 361 PA’s and he broke out w/a 122 ops+.
    Age 28, 581 PA’s and a 127 ops+.
    Age 29, injury hit and Hicks managed a 103 ops+ in 255 PA’s.

    1289 PA’s for Hicks to break out from a 77 ops+, is what I took from this comparison.

    Brian Walton

    Paid - Annual

    The question this raises for me is whether Hicks is the exception or the rule?

    The reason I ask this is that finding one example (if it is very atypical) does not say much – unless someone was asserting it is IMPOSSIBLE for Bader to improve.

    Admittedly without data, my guess is that a major turnaround is still less likely.


    I think Hicks ~1300 PA’s before a breakout season was atypical. It actually surprised me. When I started out I thought I was comparing Bader to a better offensive player. A “what can Bader become” comparison. I didn’t realize how much Hicks had struggled and for that many PA’s.

    The JBJ comparison previously is more typical for me. Players struggle somewhat early in their careers adapting to the next level, then get to their prime years and enjoy their best success.

    Baders BAbip was very low last season, especially on ground balls. Positive regression is what I’m expecting. An improvement over 2019, maybe a little shy of 2018, but if his slg% matures along with his age, he could match 2018.

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