Goold’s top 7 Cardinals prospects

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  • #126675
    bccran
    Participant

    Mendoza is one of many prospects that I scratch my head over.
    Drafted in the 11th round in 2017 out of North Carolina State. Big third baseman at 6’2″, 200 lbs. But his junior year for the Wolfpack he had the following line –
    .262/.342/.397/.740. Just 5 home runs in 261 plate appearances. Did the Cardinals think they could change his swing plane? Or did they see this big guy as a long term reserve who could play multiple infield positions? Like BW said, now trying his hand at SS. Whether he has tough competition or not from guys like Gorman, his history for 3 years at NC State and his time in the minors don’t add up to a viable corner infield prospect. Or corner OF slot if they decided to move him there.

    #126677
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Another way of looking at it is this: How many clear MLB prospects are still around in the 11th round? The later you go in the draft, fewer chances taken are going to work out. That same year, compared to Mendoza, they spent $50K more on Terry Fuller and twice as much on Donivan Williams.

    Sort of related to this, I did an assessment of the Cardinals’ post-10th rounders who received over slot money in recent years. The results to date have not been good.

    Cardinals Extra Spend on Late Picks Yet to Pay Off

    #126679
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    “Jonathan (Jonatan) Moncado”.

    Some of the folks right here are more knowledgeable about our prospects than Goold. I don’t have anything against him but clearly his cred slips every week IMO. Some of his answers are not even able to be properly understood.

    And what is OOTP21? Does he assume everyone knows? He never explains it.

    #126680
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    And what is OOTP21? Does he assume everyone knows? He never explains it.

    It means we’re gonna be out of toilet paper until 2021. 😂

    #126682
    bccran
    Participant

    It’s not only later picks, Brian. What about Scott Hurst.
    Nice little (5’10”, 175 lbs.) outfielder out of Cal State Fullerton that we took in the 3rd round of the shortened 2017 draft. Hit .233 at Palm Beach last season, then .191 after he was promoted to Springfield. 5 home runs in 108 games for the year. He just turned 24 last month. What’s his future? Late inning defensive replacement?

    #126685
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Well, that is a different, but equally relevant focus. When you brought up Mendoza, I selected the post-10th round link across seasons. Instead, you chose the 2017 draft, which is mostly a disaster.

    Just to keep it in perspective though, Hurst’s below-slot bonus (3rd round) equaled Mendoza + Williams (11th and 14th) bonuses. Making it even worse is that two of the three 1st-10th rounders they went over slot on have already been released.

    Many attribute the poor draft to the two early picks lost because of Chris Correa. The Cards also lost what would have been their third pick ahead of when Hurst when was taken due to the signing of Dexter Fowler. (That is a name I hesitate to even bring up, because otherwise logical and civil discussions tend to go haywire almost immediately.)

    Even so, in other years, St. Louis made a number of good picks in the third round or later, but not in 2017, it appears. The pick of that litter looks to be 27th rounder Kodi Whitley, a player who would never have been drafted in the first place under the changes being made by MLB.

    #126692
    bccran
    Participant

    It’s not just the rough 2017 draft, Brian. It’s all the guys who are smaller guys without a lot of pop or speed that end up in our system. How about James Ramsey in 2012. First round pick of a proven college player out of Florida State. Drafted #23. Stuck in there until he finally seemed to give up in 2018. Never wore a major league uniform during a regular season game.

    #126694
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Agreed. For quite a while, the Cardinals seem to have profiled outfielders of that kind of build, looking at athleticism over size. For an infielder like Mendoza, who took us down this path, I get it more.

    #126695
    bccran
    Participant

    They have also profiled some young high school players with a supposed very high ceiling. I’m still scratching my head about Nick Plummer, drafted #23 in the 1st round in 2015. Has a career minor league batting average of .199. 18 home runs and 29 stolen bases in 343 minor league games.

    #126708
    CardsFanInChiTown
    Participant

    Free

    BC, 2nd round isn’t as big of a risk as using the #23 on Plummeer, but I worry the same about Fletcher. A very huge risk vs reward situation….

    If the season is entirely cancelled, I wonder how the Rule 5 statuses will shake out.

    #126715
    bccran
    Participant

    The first one I noticed was Paul Coleman (6th overall) in 1989. Followed by –

    1991 – Dimitri Young (4th overall)
    1992 – Mike Gulan (2nd Rd.)
    1993 – Nate Dishington (2nd Rd.)
    1995 – Jason Woolf (2nd Rd.)
    Billy Deck (3rd Rd.)
    1996 – Brett Butler (3rd Rd.)
    1998 – Tim Lemon (2nd Rd.)
    Gabe Johnson (3rd Rd.)
    2000 – Shaun Boyd (13th overall)
    2001 – Joe Mather (3rd Rd.)
    2002 – Calvin Hayes (3rd Rd.)
    2003 – Daric Barton (1st Rd.)
    2004 – Mike Ferris (2nd Rd.)
    2005 – Tyler Green (1st Rd.)
    Daryl Jones (3rd Rd.)
    2006 – Mark Hamilton (2nd Rd.)
    2007 – Pete Kozma (1st Rd.)
    2008 – Brett Wallace (1st Rd.)
    Shane Peterson (2nd. Rd.)
    Niko Vasquez (3rd. Rd.)
    2009 – Robert Stock (2nd Rd.)
    2010 – Zack Cox (1st Rd.)
    Sam Tuivailala (3rd Rd.)
    2011 – Charlie Tilson (2nd Rd.)
    CJ McElroy (3rd Rd.)
    2012 – James Ramsey (2nd Rd.)
    Patrick Wisdom (3rd Rd.)
    2015 – Nick Plummer (1st Rd.)
    Bryce Denton (2nd Rd.)
    2017 – Scott Hurst (3rd Rd.)

    That’s a whole lot of 1-3 round picks who never made it. The Cards have emphasized pitching in the higher rounds, but the success record of the picks in those higher rounds who were position players is woeful.

    #126716
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    IMO, the only way to assess would be to compare to other teams – preferably ones that pick near the back end of every draft. I am totally confident that every team has a list of early-round failures. It goes with the territory.

    I recall that Bob Reed, for one, studied the MLB contributions of Cardinals draft picks over the years and concluded that the team has been among the best in producing MLB talent.

    A rough assessment not using numbers could be this. The Cardinals have consistently fielded winning teams, 19 in the last 20 years, specifically. In that same period, they have not signed many big free agents, and as some frequently point out, a number of the middle tier free agents signed have proven to be bad deals. In the trades they made, they gave up their own minor leaguers primarily.

    So if they aren’t successful due to free agency, it has to be because of their draft, international signings and development processes.

    Does it mean that every team could not be better in the draft using 20-20 hindsight? Of course not.

    #126724
    bccran
    Participant

    Now, just for the heck of it, let’s take a look at some of the players brought in from the outside over that same period that have helped contribute to a lot the Cardinals success.

    Pedro Guerrero
    Willie McGee
    Ozzie Smith
    Gregg Jefferies
    Mark Whiten
    Royce Clayton
    Gary Gaetti
    Ron Gant
    Mark McGwire
    Fernando Tatis
    Eric Davis
    Mike Matheny
    Fernando Vina
    Edgar Renteria
    Jim Edmonds
    Scott Rolen
    Tony Womack
    Reggie Sanders
    David Eckstein
    Mark Grudzielanek
    Larry Walker
    Aaron Miles
    Juan Encarnacion
    Troy Glaus
    Ryan Ludwick
    Matt Holliday
    David Freese
    Ryan Theriot
    Lance Berkman
    Carlos Beltran
    Rafael Furcal
    Jhonny Peralta
    Jason Heyward
    Jedd Gyorko
    Dexter Fowler
    JOse Martinez
    Marcel Ozuna
    Paul Goldschmidt

    Yes, the drafting of position players has been woeful, but they have more than made up for it by bringing in some excellent players from the outside to help.

    p.s. It’s why I pushed so hard from them to bring in a Berkman/Beltran/Walker type player on a short term deal over this last off season.

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