Future Rotation

[Jnevel]

JJ – I 100% agree with your post here. Although I do think a SP 3 will come internally.

In 2025, I believe it’s likely that Saggese is at 2B, Contreras or Burleson (or possibly Baker) is at 1B, Scott is in CF, Carlson is the 4th OF, Gorman is the nearly full-time DH, and Donovan becomes the super sub while Edman is traded. I love Edman. I love Goldschmidt. But this configuration works better given who we have in 2025 and it frees up money to spend on a good starting pitcher as JJ suggests. Plus it helps keep Gorman healthy. But 2025 is still a long ways off and things change.

[jj-cf-stl]

J said:
“But 2025 is along ways off and things change.”

Counting on it! Much work to be done the next 365 days. We better hope Mo has an all-star season, starting right now.

“Although I do think a SP3 will come internally.”

Likeliest scenario, and you mean SP3 quality, not contract (Mikolas). Forsch and I are leaning towards Thompson, but I am bullish on Matz too. But, where are the starts? Glorified swingman?

One of Mikolas, Gibson and Lynn may be SP3 type effective this season. But, another season later (2025), are we back to hoping he whips father time again?

[Jnevel]

Matz and Mikolas are already under contract for 2035. They will be whatever they will be whether that’s a SP2 down to SP5. I’m just looking at all the others on rookie contracts saying one of them should turn into an equivalent of a SP3. That could be Thompson. He has a leg up right now. But we have a whole season to play.

[gscottar]

jj said:

but I am bullish on Matz too

Everytime I see this comment, which is more frequent than I would have ever imagined, I kind of just have a blank stare at the computer. I guess I just don’t see what you guys are seeing.

[jj-cf-stl]

Yah, it’s mostly gut, but the numbers kind of support it. I think he can be better than he has been for us.

[gscottar]

I think he can be better than he has been for us.

That is a low bar to clear.

[1toughdominican]

He’ll be a little better than Rom.

[mudville]

If Matz flames out again, they ought to just release him and call it a sunk cost. Thompson becomes the No. 5 and just leave it that way.

[jj-cf-stl]

GS, here’s what pitches they worked with last season.

2023 season, run value by pitch type:
(200 pitches minimum, best two pitch types)

Monty, sinker +16, curve +4
Gray, sweeper +19, cutter +7, 4-seamer +5
Gibson sweeper +12, sinker +1
Mikolas, slider +7, 4-seamer -1
Matz, sinker +8, change +2
Thompson, curve +6, 4-seamer -2
Lynn, changeup -1, slider -3

Matz has adequate pitch types to be successful, if he makes his starts.

[gscottar]

I predict this will be your typical Matz season of 90 IP and a 4.50 ERA. 2025 might be his breakout season since that is a walk year. One ofthe few good seasons he has had was his walk year of 2021. It is funny how that works.

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