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Thompson as the 2025 SP3, is high expectations Forsch, but Zack was the #19 pick, same as Gorman the year before.
I haven’t seen his new changeup, but it could be a game changer for him, if he masters it. The batters will tell us if his pitches are SP3 worthy.
Zack would also need a high IP count this season, at all levels. He has a Memphis shuttle pass, I just hope they stick with the SP role all season, and he finds 15-20 GS on the active roster.
Zack has accumulated 1.045 service time. He’s in the current one-plus yrs service time class along with Pallante, Gorman and Burleson.
As the SP6 in Memphis, Zack may spend .046 days or more optioned down, which would leave him short of 2.000 service years going into 2025. A possible five seasons of control remaining, which is just one FA season ahead our prospects, who are yet to debut.
It isn’t negative or revolutionary to expect that pitchers in their mid 30s are going to decline as they age further. The only questions are how much and how fast.
Waino was solid enough late career (or until Sept 2022ish). But yeah, betting on older arms is a fool’s game. Time will tell if Mo is the fool.
Wainwright peak age 27-32: 4.0 fWAR average per year (would have been 5.1/year except he missed all of 2011)
Ages 33-36: 1.6 avg
Ages 37-41: 1.9 avg
(Ages 37-40 only – had he retired a year earlier: 2.6 avg)Yes. It was clear that Waino was a good enough starter up until his arm fell off in late 2022. He’s also a bit of an outlier as a guy who was playable into his 40s. There aren’t a lot of them out there in the post roid era. I could see one of Mikolas, Gibson or Lynn being a guy to keep beyond this year. It’s a lot to ask that more than one would be worthy of a rotation spot.
I understand, bc. By my statement, I meant that one would be worth having in the rotation. Money talks and he will pitch but it could be a bad situation overall. Hopefully he holds off Father Time for a couple more years.
I believe the “future 1B/2A starter” will come from the outside.
George Kirby (5 years of control) would seem to be worth giving up a lot for.
Kirby for Burley, Roby, Graceffo to much or not even close?
Too much for one player. Roby has 1-3 potential as a future starter. Saggese was anointed the top 2nd baseman in the entire minor leagues last season.
Burly’s bat could be exciting going forward.I would absolutely do that CardFan. But Seattle is not crazy. They would laugh at two bum shoulder minor league pitchers and a 4th OF type who is not everyday playable due to defensive limitations and has so far put up 83 OPS+ in 400PAs. They would roll around on the floor laughing.
I think as of right now potential trade partners would have to go on what we saw of Burly’s defense last year.
With 500+ ML innings under his belt, plus around 1,500 MiLB innings in the outfield, substantial improvement is getting unlikely. It is unlikely. No one is going to count on it.
We just have different opinions. I think he’s a pretty good athlete and can improve now that it’s clear what he needs to do to stay at the major league level. And he has a decent arm. He also pitched at ECU.
It wouldn’t surprise me if George Kirby stays in SEA, CFIC, but I do expect our FO to be on the lookout for a young mlb SP’r.
If we target pre-arbs, everyone wants to keep them. It’s like trying to get Walker or Noot from us. Start with outrageous and add until I say stop.
An arb starter, may be the sweet spot to target. Established, mid level salary with multiple seasons of control. Monty as an example with us, or Cease as the most recent trade.
“Young controllable arm” may have been pushed to the back burner lately while Mo renovated the rotation, but its’ still the goal of the rebuild.
Absolutely, JJ. The perfect strategy.
Maybe a pitcher who’s just entering his expensive first arbitration year on a low budget team.To inject a bit of cold sobriety:
George Kirby’s trade value is listed as $91,000,000 at the BTV website.
The combined trade values of Graceffo, Roby, and Burly = $27,000,000.Just for the sake of discussion, to get to $91MM the Cards would need to also add Tink Hence and Victor Scott II and Thomas Saggese and Tommy Edman and Michael McGreevy and Won-Bin Cho. Silly, ain’t it?
As long as Seattle is trying to be competitive, Kirby is more or less un-gettable. Dylan Cease was the guy to get. The White Sox received a good return — maybe very good. But it still wasn’t as much as the Cards could have offered — and not nearly as much present MLB talent, assuming the Cards included Contreras & Gorman in the deal. Incredibly, it was a trade that could’ve improved both teams now, and both teams in the future, all while being payroll-neutral if the Birds ate half of Willson’s salary. And as far as I know, Mo never made the Sox a serious offer. Maybe not any offer.
They do and that’s why they’ve got Lynn and Gibson with an option. They’re hoping at least one of these guys is ready by next year. 2 is best case but it’s clear they felt no one was ready now.
There’s only one way off this merry-go-round of mediocrity. And it’s not trading (overpaying) for other teams elite prospects and major league ready pitching talent. All those screaming for Cease would be ready to scalp MO if he gutted our system to pay the price. The only other way is to just be happy where we are at. Maybe that’s OK? The other option isn’t really in play. Larger budget.
“All those screaming for Cease would be ready to scalp MO if he gutted our system to pay the price.”
I have not been screaming for Cease. I’ve been whining. Big difference.
Anyway, the trade I advocated ad nauseum would only have included one member of the farm system — a 2nd-tier pitching prospect, someone never on any top 100 lists. The key pieces would’ve been Nolan Gorman and Willson Contreras — with the Cards of course eating roughly half of the backstop’s salary. A man can dream, can’t he?I’d still like to see the Birds trade for a plausible #2 starter. Like Bieber for example. Wouldn’t cost nearly as much as Cease in trade talent, and the Tribe needs exactly what the Cardinals have an excess of: good position players.
I don’t believe Mo could present any package that Seattle would take for Kirby. We do not have the top shelf young talent, and they have no reason to consider a basket of lesser talent. The reason is that they could get better stuff from someone else.
The idea they would want a 31 year old catcher is especially dubious.
Count me among those who believe that Contreras is untradable for a number of reasons. To have to add Nolan Gorman to a deal just to get rid of him seems like a very unwise move.
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