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Give it time guys. Give it time. This whole season is about trying to develop those guys. You can’t be ready to say they’re great after the first 2 weeks then throw them in the trash after the following 2 weeks. Baseball is just too random to judge such small samples. Brandt Brown needs more time. Walker certainly needs more time. He’s still the same age as many college seniors.
Here are some facts we have gathered from the early season that are truths:
Donovan is a good hitter. Probably above average. He’s also versatile making him extremely valuable. Looks to be the early favorite for the team’s MVP.
Walker is far improved in the outfield. He looks like he can stay there if his bat improves. Right now that 2nd part is a big question but I’m confident in him.
Gorman is still swinging wildly at balls in the dirt. Nothing has changed much for him other than his swing is a little different.
Baker has good plate discipline and maybe deserves more PT.
Pages is fun. I love that guy. Of course I already knew that one having watched him for several years.
Liberatore and Pallante look like they COULD be long-term rotation fixtures. I would not have guessed that about Liberatore coming into this season.
Noot can get on base. But we already knew that.
I’m not sure what else I’ve learned yet this season. Most everything has too small a sample size.
J I think you are right from beginning to end with your comments. I’m going to enjoy the season as I always do. Only thing I’m sure of is this isn’t a playoff team. So forget about that and follow them from a development point of view.
Gorman and Walker are 1st round investments. Burly and Baker are 2nd rounders.
It’s Mo’s roster he has built, and the owner has spent 5mil in the last 14 months. Move on to who?The rebuild isn’t going to last forever. Eventually the Cardinals will have to spend some money to augment the rebuilt farm system.
So now we’re not following TB, CLE and KC? We’re buyers? This owner? Sho-Me. I have as much faith in Bill spending as the Pirates fans have with Nutting spending. “Wont last forever” is the opposite of “a couple years”. It’s not what they say, it’s what they do.
There must be a “give it time” sign at each turnstile, and the paying fans are doing exactly that, by not attending.
There is no Albert Pujols coming.
There is no Aaron Judge coming.
There is no Shohei Ohtani coming.
There is no Pete Alonso coming.
Currently we have a lot of backups out on the field. Whether they develop into everyday players and keep us above water is yet to be seen. But like a lot on here have indicated, some of these guys already have been given 3-4 years and they are yet to produce.
Perhaps after a less than stellar 2025 it’s time to tear down the rebuild and start to rebuild again?
Hoping Chase Davis ramps up his development and can be the guy. Also wish we would play Luken “Home Run” Baker full time to see what he can do with regular reps, but understand the situation. Contreras is good when he is on his game, but has not found it yet this year.
If Herrera stays healthy he can be at least an interim middle order bat that can produce.
I’m glad to see there has been a lot of interesting discussion on the topic. I considered putting some prospects like Davis, but I don’t know how confident I feel in him even if he makes it to the bigs to be a 3-6 batter. He currently hits way too many ground balls and isn’t tapping into his power because of it. Hopefully something he can work on. Lower minors Rainel Rodriguez is an option, but by the time he is up the team will look so different.
Regarding Gorman and his batting average / K%, I don’t think either one prevents him from being a cleanup style hitter. I look at Gorman and think could he be a Kyle Schwarber type but playing a below average 3B or average 1B and maybe less walks. Schwarber I think by all classifications fits as a middle of the lineup bat despite a career .230 batting average, but also a career .492 slugging %. I know Gorman has some outside zone swing issues, but the eye test shows he has made improvements and the data backs it up so far, albeit in a small sample.
Regarding Baker, I am concerned he has too much of a grooved swing and feasts on poor pitchers / AAAA types. He is already 28 years old so I doubt he has much leeway and the team obviously doesn’t view him in that light otherwise he would be getting more PAs.
Unsure why so much dislike for Herrera from Steve. He has a below average arm for sure, but how many runs across Herrera’s 2024 and 2025 seasons at catcher do you think stat analysis says he has allowed compared to the average catcher? Only 3 runs below average. SB are more on the pitcher than anything in today’s game and the pop times (credit Kyle Reis on Wednesday with Walton a few weeks back) are incredibly tightly grouped together and Herrera’s time isn’t that much worse. Even the best catchers are shooting for a 25% stolen base rate with today’s rules. Herrera’s bat easily will produce more than 3 runs above average compared to the average hitter (let alone catcher) that the team will come out ahead with him at backstop. This team really needs Herrera back to help out the overall offense and hopefully his above average results continue throughout the year.
I also don’t think management of any decent team would accept an answer from his coaching staff that there aren’t any guys on the team that can become a middle of the order batter. We have quite a few tooled up guys and a coaching staff saying they cannot get at least one of those guys to be a 20% better than average MLB hitter is an immediate way to get fired. None of these guys are there today but a good coaching staff is going to be able to identify what does each player need to do and steps they can take to get there. Now even the bests coaches can’t turn everyone into a star, but they make strides to improve a higher rate of players than poor staffs.
They aren’t spending any money on a FA bat currently. So let’s get that out of the way. If that bat comes it would be via trade and then where would you put him?
Betting on Gorman or Walker to be that bat currently is foolish but I agree one needs more ABs and the other has had plenty of time to show. He’s a very inconsistent bat.
This year is a see what you’ve got and likely figure out who’s getting dealt if we hover around or under .500
Our 3-6 batters currently rank second in mlb with a 131 ops+.
Willson has primarily batted second instead of MOTO, along with Baker vs lefties, batting second.
Leadoff is 7th, (124 ops+)
2nd ranks 30th, (29)
3rd ranks 10th, (111)
4th ranks 9th (120)
5th ranks 2nd, (166)
6th ranks 6th, (133)
7th ranks 19th, (86)
8th ranks 8th, (126)
9th ranks 6th, (131)I like your thought on Baker, ATM, and his “grooved” swing. That is a good point and I can see that – his swing is a bit mechanical and I wonder how well he would adjust to pitches in various locations.
And I really like Herrera. His defense could be better, but really I do not see Pages as light years ahead of him defensively. I like Pedro better as a catcher, but he has not impressed me as being all that great as a defensive receiver. As a hitter though, Ivan can really be good.
Checking in a week later (25% more sample size) of progress from Walker, Burleson, and Gorman. Results have obviously not been great. But the underlying data is where I think the more telling story is as plate discpline is the key for all 3 of these guys.
Player | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Z-Contact% ----------------|----------|----------|----------- MLB Average | 28.0 | 64.6 | 85.3 ----------------|----------|----------|----------- Burleson Career | 36.4 | 71.5 | 88.2 Burleson 25 | 41.7 | 64.6 | 88.2 ----------------|----------|----------|----------- Walker Career | 32.8 | 70.5 | 84.1 Walker 25 | 35.5 | 67.0 | 80.6 ----------------|----------|----------|----------- Gorman Career | 29.1 | 70.6 | 77.2 Gorman 25 | 23.1 | 68.3 | 87.3Brown preaches patience and all 3 show it on the in the zone pitches, but Walker and Burly have actually gotten worse about swing at pitches outside the zone. Gorman has made great improvements though and his contact % is up as well. Somehow Gorman’s K% is still 30% this year though despite swing at less pitches out of the zone and making a lot more contact and actually being a good amount above average in both categories this year. I think this is the mental aspect in that when he gets to 2 strikes, he loses confidence and that is when he makes the bad decisions.
Looking a little closer Gorman’s problem is with 2 strikes and when he does swing at something out the zone, it is a really bad pitch and he cannot make any contact at all to foul it off. League average outsize zone contact % is 55.4% while Gorman only puts his bat on 32.0%. For comparison, Donovan is at 76.1% which is obvious watching him. Donovan does a great job of fouling pitches off in a 2 strike count while Gorman completely misses the ball and strikes out.
The 2 thru 6 bats in the Redbird line-up for game 1 of the ’04 WS. Renteria was slotted at lead-off. No wonder we lost that WS…
Walker
Pujols
Rolen
Edmonds
SandersI really agree with ATM’s post about Gorman. He kind of reminds me of Jack Flahrerty, all promise but an unreachable ceiling except that Flaherty is a certified head case, IMO. The Cardinals’ organization just put up with him too long. Gorman sure has a nice looking power swing and he’s still young, so there’s still hope. As a fan, I want to win and I feel like Donovan gives us a better chance of winning than Gorman who looks like he’s already beat when he’s in a two strike count. Maybe he’ll grow out of it’ eventually but for the time being those strikeouts are painful to watch.
re Gorman: You can only wait and hope for so long. The occasional long ball just ain’t worth the Mendoza line struggle in the middle of the order. It’s time to cut bait.
Walker is fast moving down that same slippery slope. He might be worth a little longer look, but other candidates could be a better investment of more time.We aren’t going anywhere this year. We have to endure Walker and Gormans struggles at the plate. Hopefully by the end of the year we see enough of an upward trend that they can be counted on for 2026 and moving forward. Burleson is a 1 dimensional player with no apparent power. I wouldn’t give him at bats in front of anyone.
ATM,
I liked your breakdowns above, but one point on Herrera. Why do you see him as athletic enough to play a corner outfield spot? I think he would have a decent enough arm for left, but if his speed is actually a 30 grade, VS III is gonna run his legs off covering all of CF and most of a corner.
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45
By the way, I do think Herrera has the bat, but does he have a position other than DH? (Unless his caught stealing rate all of a sudden soars.)
Gorman currently hitting 185 with one home run! That is not a MOTO bat! So many on here continue to think he should be getting a whole year to prove himself! He has already proven himself! I also think he should get a ton of at bats this year, in Memphis
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