Dylan Carlson

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  • #120425
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I have no problem with Carlson but I see a lot of people touting his numbers. but I seem to recall reading in the articles about the tampa trade, that arozarenas numbers as well as some others in the minors were skewed because of a live ball in the minors this year. so which is it. you cant use numbers one way for one player yet use them differently for another.

    In this case, you can…somewhat. The MLB ball was only used in AAA, so Carlson didn’t benefit from it during the bulk of his PT as he was in AA Springfield.

    #120428
    Avatarforsch31
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    Carlson hit the same as Arozarena in AAA in 2019. If you have to discount Arozarena’s numbers, you have to discount Carlson’s. If you compare Carlson in AA to Arozarena in AA, Arozarena slightly outperformed Carlson except in HRs. Then look at Carlson prior to 2019. His best batting average was .251 and his best OPS was .794 (in 57 PAs).

    I am really pulling for Carlson and hope he can continue what he did last year. However, there are reasons to be cautious in expectations.

    #120443
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Reminder that Carlson only played in Triple-A for 18 games.

    #120449
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    I am really pulling for Carlson and hope he can continue what he did last year. However, there are reasons to be cautious in expectations.

    I think this is an important caveat for all prospects. I remember when Colby Rasmus was destined to be a superstar. There is a delicate balance between the crowd that always wants to trade prospects for proven (whatever that means) veterans and the crowd who wants to hoard prospects.

    That’s the great thing about top pitching prospects – the ones who don’t pan out as starters typically pay off with pretty good value out of the bullpen.

    One thing I will say, in the last 20 years, what prospects have we traded for stud players that we have regretted dealing? That list isn’t long. And we could have gotten a king’s ransom for Rasmus, and we ended up settling for pennies on the dollar. Something to think about.

    #120461
    Avatargscottar
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    When it comes to comparing Carlson and Rasmus I think most of us are counting on their being an improvement on the skills generated above the shoulders.

    #120468
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    When it comes to comparing Carlson and Rasmus I think most of us are counting on their being an improvement on the skills generated above the shoulders.

    There is little doubt that Rasmus was mentally weak, but that really isn’t my point. My point is that we generally over-estimate the hit rate of prospects, especially position players. I know that most superstars around the league were highly-rated prospects coming up – but for some reason people tend to get in the mindset that the opposite is true, that most highly rated prospects become superstars, or something close to it. And that is FAR from being true.

    #120565
    Avatar1982 willie
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    atripleshyofthecycle, what have you done. you have upset the apple cart. suggesting that cardinal prospects may not end being any better than average ball players at best. some of the folks here like their prospects more than they like winning. got to tread lightly.

    #120596
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Willie… you may be right. We tend to overrate what we have in the system. Always have. always will. There’s a lot of hope and faith in that game.

    Our ’20 STL OF makeup will be very interesting… hopefully we have have some young winners.

    #120598
    Avatarmudville
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    Hope and ‘pixie dust’ are essentially the same thing.

Viewing 9 posts - 26 through 34 (of 34 total)
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