A Realisitic Look

[bccran]

I follow the minor leagues closely, and am a firm believer of building from within, but sometimes it’s good to step back and take a realistic look. Most guys who have done a detailed analysis will show that only about 10% of drafted players will ever make it to the major leagues. That’s of those drafted. It’s a bit less than 10% because not all drafted players are signed. A smaller percentage, of those who make it, will gain a long term regular job in the major leagues and/or make an impact. Only a very, very small percentage will become stars.

So it might be interesting to see how many Cardinals drafted players over the past 10 years or so made it to the big show. Or have a bona fide chance of ever making it. Here they are by year –

2010 – Tuivailala, Lyons, Greg Garcia
2011 – Wong, Maness
2012 – Wacha, Piscotty, Carson Kelly
2013 – Marco, Mercado, Mayers, Voit
2014 – Weaver, Flaherty, Gomber, Ponce
2015 – Bader, DeJong, Hicks, Helsley
2016 – Hudson, Edman, Knizner (also Carlson and Gallen)
2017 – No one even close. Mendoza in the 11th and Whitley in the 22nd maybe. This draft year really hurt, not picking until the 3rd round.
2018 – Gorman, Roberts, Baker, and Gil were in the first 4 rounds. No one else really looks that promising.
2019 – Thompson should make it. Fletcher may be a long shot.

What does this really show? We’re thriving/surviving off a few long term veterans and the 2014-2016 drafts. It shows that the quality of our drafts since 2016 has really dropped off. Maybe that’s why we had such a poor won-loss record last season as Brian exhibited. Thank goodness for players from the Islands, South America, and the guys we’ve picked up via trade. The 2020 draft is going to be critical.

[Cardinals27]

The 2019 draft is too recent to rate, as many pitchers had innings limits. I think Thompson could move to the top 100 lists with the stuff he has, perhaps top 50.

[forsch31]

Even 2018 is too recent to rate. A lot of the most promising talent were younger and will take a little longer for them to develop. The older draftees in the 2018 top 10 rounds have mostly been disappointments, so far, though.

[bccran]

27 and Forsch – Good conversation to have. It is indeed early to measure any results regarding the
drafts in 2018 and 2019. But we know that on average 10%, or approx. 4 players from each of those drafts will probably wear a major league uniform. And that the odds go down big time for any players not in the top 10 rounds. So who might it be? Let’s look at guys in the first 10 rounds –

2019 –

Zack Thompson is probably a lock.
Locey was 11-2 with at 2.53 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at U. of Georgia. 97n Ks in 89 innings.
Pallante was 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA at Irvine. Only gave up 73 hits in 94 innings.
Thomas is a little 5’11” lefty out of Georgia Tech. Stats were mediocre.
Ralston was the Ace of the UCLA staff. 11-1 with 2.55 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Logan Gragg had a 5.26 ERA at Oklahoma State
Jake Summers pitched for little U. of Wisconsin – Mil. Bull pen guy

Any other pitchers stand out for you?

Tre Fletcher is raw as can be. Big risk, but you never know. Vandy like him. That’s a good sign
Pedro Pages seems to be adjusting, but look at the catcher queue in front of him.
Todd Lott has reasonable numbers at La-Lafayette. 8 HRs and 12 SBs. Nice balance.
Patrick Romeri is was a 12th HS round pick, buy will include him since he’s out of IMG.

Any other position players you like?

2018 –

Griffin Roberts – Ace of the WF staff. Struck out 130 in 94 innings. Has a shot.
Steven Gingery – Injuries. May never develop. Liked the pick though. AA out of Texas Tech.
Edgar Gonzalez – 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA out of Fresno State. Ked 110 in 95 innings. Walked 31 though.

Nolan Gorman – top 100 prospect. Great pick, odds are he will be a Cardinal some day.
Luke Baker – Big boy out of TCU. Where will he play though, with Goldy’s contract?
Mateo Gil – high risk high schooler. You never know. Another Perez?
Nick Dunn – Little second baseman out of U. of Maryland. Has some pop. 10 HRs for the Terps
Brendon Donovan – !B/OF out of S. Alabama. Only 5 home runs. Enough power for a corner guy?
Lars Nootbaar – .249 BA for the Trojans? With 6 home runs all season?
Matthew Duce – Hit .234 for Dallas Baptist. Showed some pop with 10 dingers. Good launch angle?
Kevin Woodall – 19 home runs for Coastal Carolina. Was my dark horse pick on this draft.

Any other position players? Some say maybe Toerner or Warner. I don’t think so. Just my HO.

[Cardinals27]

In addition of pitchers already mentioned, Connor Lunn, Ralston and Yasenka looked good last year among others. Statler is a big bodied high schooler. Kind of curious why Ralston has been pegged as a reliever already. The others should have a chance to start at Peoria

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