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On Monday, the #STLCards system was 4-1. TCN’s Player of the Day, Palm Beach RH Jason Savacool, threw seven shutout innings on three hits and a walk with four strikeouts. Other standouts: Thomas Saggese, Jeremy Rivas, Brandon Komar, Won-Bin Cho, Tanner Jacobson, Trey Paige and… pic.twitter.com/99ya9iCraR
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 2, 2024
Nice seeing 20 year old Won-Big Cho get off the proverbial schneid, with a nice game last night. Love the upside of this fellow and I am expecting big things moving forward from Won-Big…..though he does need to cease and desist with attempting to swipe bases, as he’s really not very good at it.
The #stlcards system was 4-0 on Tuesday. The Cardinal Nation’s Player of the Day, Memphis LF Matt Koperniak, was 3-for-5 with four RBI and three runs scored. Other standouts include Thomas Saggese, Jeremy Rivas, Darlin Saladin, Miguel Villarroel, Jose Suarez and Gerardo Salas.… pic.twitter.com/qXdvpScyrj
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 3, 2024
Happy Fourth! The #STLCards system was 3-2 on Wednesday. TCN’s Player of the Day, Peoria 1B William Sullivan, was 3-for-4 including two HR with three RBI and three runs scored. Other standouts: Aaron McKeithan, Darlin Moquete, Miguel Villarroel, Zach Levenson and Ixan Henderson.… pic.twitter.com/QYYxiEtduo
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 4, 2024
Today, in his first start of July, The Cardinal Nation's #stlcards minors June Pitcher of the Month, DSL RH Keiverson Ramirez, 18, lowered his 2024 ERA to 0.78 after 5 no-hit innings – 1 BB, 1 UER, 3 K. Cards won, 2-1. https://t.co/mRXymrahhO
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 4, 2024
After a few years of terrible pitching results in the minor leagues, here’s where our minors system stands today in ERA:
Memphis – 3rd out of 20 teams.
If we hadn’t rostered Josh James who ballooned our ERA and then blew up like the Hindenburg, then they’d be #1. Other than James, the bullpen has been good and the starters have been average or a little better than.Springfield – 9th out of 10 teams.
This team had our A list of starters coming into the season, but has obviously struggled. They are the lone poor performer on our list.Peoria – 6th out of 12 teams.
Sixth isn’t great, but they are only .2 away from 2nd so it’s a tight bunch of teams right around them. Mautz is really bringing the team down. But most of the others have been solid or good. Mathews was great in his short stint.Palm Beach – 1st out of 10 teams.
This team has been a revelation with several great starters appearing almost out of nowhere. Saladin, Salas, and Chen Wei-Lin are the big 3 names. Saladin has since been promoted to Peoria and is performing well there.FCL Cards – 2nd out of 15 teams.
They are a mile behind Miami who is infinitely better than every other team. Still, good results thus far.DSL Cards – 12th out of 51 teams.
Yes, there truly are 51 teams as most clubs have 2 DSL teams. We have a couple pitchers doing really well including Brian’s minor league pitcher of the month.As a side note, none of our teams perform even in the top half of their respective leagues in OPS except our DSL squad. Offense has been improving lately overall though.
My guess is it is business as usual for the Cardinals minor league pitching development.
They develop guys who can throw it by low level hitters and everybody starts projecting. Then they get to the upper levels and have trouble against more advanced hitters. The answer is have them ‘add a few ticks’ until they blow up their arm. Memphis is doing OK because of the imports.
When the org staffs up STL and MEM next spring we will see what the home grown representation looks like, and have some notion about whether there is forward progress.
My guess is no.
Bling, I know you are our resident poo-poo-er, but there is definitely forward progress. In the past 5 years, we were clinging to hope on just a few good arms because pitching got taken for granted while the organization prioritized hitters. The development level from 2 years ago to this year is a complete transformation. Now there are at least 15 good pitchers with future mlb potential. For a while, we had to squint to get to around 8. The issue now is I question whether they are now forgetting the hitters.
Our pitching prospects greatly outweigh our hitting prospects. We actually have a solid group of 4 pitchers with mid rotation upside in Hence, Matthews, Hjerpe, and Roby. I certainly don’t expect all 4 to actually make it given the nature of prospects, but one of them probably will while another likely is a decent contributer. We have a good amount of #5 types as well and a good amount of guys who look like BP pieces, but those are needed.
There isn’t a lot of upside on position players that look have starter upside. Davis, Bernal, maybe Saggasse. Crooks is interesting and someone I think has starting catcher potential with his great defense. Scott and Cho are also potential starters, but they both have a lot of improvements to make to be starter material.
The #stlcards went 3-3 on the Fourth of July. TCN’s Player of the Day, RH Max Rajcic, tossed eight innings of one run ball with nine strikeouts for Springfield. Other standouts: Luken Baker, Thomas Saggese, Jeremy Rivas, Jimmy Crooks, Lizandro Espinoza and Keiverson Ramirez.… pic.twitter.com/10CBeac5ow
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 5, 2024
We actually have a solid group of 4 pitchers with mid rotation upside in Hence, Matthews, Hjerpe, and Roby.
Good grief.
Roby has not pitched since mid May. We will likely see him again, but he is done given his history. Hence has 3 innings since the end of May. Best case, he is the next Dakota Hudson. Hjerpe missed three months last year with elbow trouble. A deteriorating elbow throwing off debris which must be removed surgically is a ticking bomb. He was just pulled after 2 IP. tic, tock. Mathews looked good in A level ball, as legions of players do, and we will now see how he does playing with the big kids. If he is still healthy and dominant by later in the season, we can talk about having something.
There is nothing especially optimistic about that snapshot.
Ha Bling I know you wake up in the morning finding something to be upset about, but just because players have been injured doesn’t mean they never will play the game again. Did Waino give up baseball after having Tommy John surgery? Did the dozens and dozens of MLB starters like Max Fried give up baseball when having major injuries in the minors (Fried had tommy John surgery)? No. Injuries are an unfortunate part of pitching, but plenty of players recover.
I’m not saying I think all 4 will be healthy and reach the majors, but 1 of the 4 will likely live up to their ceiling. You always find the negatives in everything. Look at the bright side and have hope for the future while also realizing you can’t get upset if things don’t always work out.
I think it would benefit Bling to spend a little time learning about prospects from other teams. The majority of pitchers have an injury history of some kind, and the majority of ours will also have injuries to deal with as long as they’re slinging a rawhide 95 mph with any regularity. It’s impossible that every successful pitcher will be a guy with no risk to his shoulder, elbow or wrist in these days. It doesn’t automatically mean they’re toast.
I think it would benefit Bling to spend a little time learning about prospects from other teams.
I can learn about former prospects from other teams by observing our rotation and a majority of our pen.
It’s a bummer the rain delay knocked out Graceffo.
No idea why Nootbaar wouldn’t be in the lineup at Springfield. He said he wanted 5 rehab games a week ago and then skips two in 7 days.
Graceffo was struggling. The rain may have done him a favor. I’m probably assuming too much, but he looked like a guy coming off a high experience where he had just done a great job in the Majors and was all amped up and now found himself a few days later on a AAA mound looking at AAA hitters again and that just was kind of demoralizing. That was my impression while watching him. But I’m probably making too many assumptions there.
Having devoted is life so far to his game I can imagine the emotions involved for him right now. Not too many young pitchers burst onto the scene made of brass with ice water in their veins. He was coming on strong when the shoulder issue set him back. Now it’s a race against time to get in a career before the arm goes out for good.
Anybody got any info on Koperniak at Memphis…guy has seemed to hit fairly well at all 3 levels of the minors with a little pop….hitting .323 with 12 HR’s this year 279 AB’s
He’s solid GreyGhost. He has always hit at every level. Not a great hitter, but a good hitter. But he’s average everywhere else. Average fielder who can play CF (although probably below average there), average-ish power, average speed. He seems like a blue-collar hard worker. His main issues are these:
1) He’s mostly average as described above. Therefore, coming off the bench there aren’t many situations where he gives you an advantage over someone else already on the roster.
2) He’s left handed. With Nootbaar, Siani, Burleson, and Donovan all batting from the left side, our outfield already has too many lefties.
3) He would require another 40-man roster spot. With the potential of Edman and/or O’Brien coming back soon, there’s already going to likely be some collateral damage. Koperniak exacerbates that.
I think someone would need to get hurt to give Matt a chance. Probably 2 someones. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible for the 2nd time this winter if he isn’t added to the 40-Man, but he won’t yet be eligible for minor league free agency. I’m guessing he stays in Memphis for another year unless his bat truly forces the issue.
Hey Bling –
Here’s my list. Take it for what it’s worth. But I’m convinced the pitching situation has dramatically improved and am offering this as evidence. A couple years ago, there were only 2 names that would have shown up in the first category for me (Graceffo & Granillo).
Pitchers I believe will make a strong MLB contribution somewhere (average or better FT players): Graceffo, Hence, Granillo, Roby, Rajcic, Hjerpe, Mathews. Everyone who knows me knows I love Andre Granillo. I’ve been talking about him for a couple years now. He, Pages, Ralston, Rincon, and Donovan before them were always on my list of guys who are seriously underrated. Ralston just kept getting hurt. But over the last month, he’s back and is healthy and is pitching very well again. I also always loved Juan Yepez coming up through the Minors and we see how that turned out. But it’s not my fault he got fat! Don’t look too close at Rajcic’s ERA right now or you’ll think I’m crazy for putting him here. For that matter, don’t look at Roby’s either.
Pitchers I believe will be at least solid MLB contributors somewhere (around average F/T players): Bedell, Robberse, Roycroft, E Nunez, Svanson, Ralston, Saladin, Henderson, Showalter, Lin. I’m not truly as confident about Nunez. I don’t like him all that much. I’m putting him here anyway because he’s up there on everyone’s list. I realize Saladin, Lin, Showalter, and Henderson are all very young. But I’m excited about what I see. The range of possibilities is greater with those 4 though.
Pitchers I believe will probably make the majors (or get called back up) who are at least MLB role players: McGreevey, Kloffenstein, Naughton, C Thomas, Leahy, Loutos, Marrero, Komar, Cornwell, Paniagua, Rincon, Winquest. Komar is one of those guys I posted a bit about last year. I can’t quite say why I like him. But I think he’s undervalued. Paniagua and Rincon will probably have to do it with another club because of time expirations, but I think they’ll get there. They just started really, really young.
Other pitchers in the recesses of the system who I’m excited about but who are too far out to project: Davila, Salas, Giulianelli, Gastelum, Clemente, Menes, Ynfante.
Go ahead and print this out and hold me to my list. Barring injuries, which are difficult to predict, I believe what I have here is reality. There are no Top of the Rotation starters in the next 2 years like a Paul Skenes, but a few guys could get there over time. After all, who thought Sonny Gray would be a TOR starter when he first came up?
That’s quite the list, jnevel. I would take your outcome gladly if it were to happen. I’m not as personally bullish on the group as you are, but if in 3-4 years they amount to a #2, #3, and #5 starter along with 3-4 more guys we can rely on for cheap bullpen arms and a couple of up and down shuttlers, we’d be grinning. That’s 6-7 useful guys and two more that work in a pinch.
That’s out of 35 guys that you listed. I don’t know what the historical hit rate for the Cards or MLB teams in general is, but I’d think that 20-25% of your most exciting arms being MLB-level would be pretty solid. I’d have put that number more like 5-10% two years ago, which is why we have such a piecemeal set of arms right now.
Yeah, reading it back it sounds more bullish than I meant. Especially the 2nd group. Those are guys that I think will be full time players for at least a couple seasons who will be at least good enough to stick around and not just be on the shuttle up and down.
Fair enough. I’m looking through the top 50 from 2017 as an example, just to see what we had in the hopper then. Here’s a look at the pitchers there:
Reyes
Weaver
Hudson
Flaherty
Alcantara
Gomber
Fernandez
Woodford
Oviedo
Helsley
Seijas
Gonzales
Connor Jones
Hicks
Ronnie Williams
Mike Mayers
Gallen
Oxnevad
Derian Gonzalez
Matt Pearce
Poncedeleon
Tuivalala
Kilochowski
Rowan Wick
Cory Litrell
Trey Nielson
Kendry FloresI think that’s 27. Wouldn’t mind having that group in sum total about now. Haha. Looks like they would maybe edge out my 20-25% for MLB contributors, but that could be an exceptional year for the farm system.
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