September 26, 2020 at 12:09 am #141986
I believe the Cardinals still have a chance to win the division and play at home in the first round. If they win the next two and Chicago loses the last two, they would be at 31-27 and 33-27, respectively. The Cards would play in Detroit. If they win the first, they play the second. And if they win the second, they get the division title on second tiebreaker – intradivision record.
The Padres already have 35 wins and clinched the fourth seed.
Did I get that right?September 26, 2020 at 1:25 am #141988
Brian this sounds right. I can’t imagine who we would want to pitch in two games on Monday! Oviedo and a bullpenner?
Strangely, if both we and the Reds win our last two while Cubs lose, an interesting thing occurs. As you mentioned, we would be forced to play at least one in Detroit. If we lost that first game, not only would we miss out on 1st, we would miss out on 2nd as well, as our percentage on the season would dip below the Reds. The Reds would get the 5th seed and face Clevinger jacked up on cortisone, and we would get the 7th seed and wander in a daze over to face the Braves, and then hopefully the Cubs/Miami winner.
Frankly, I’ll be rooting for the Cubs to win one!
September 26, 2020 at 8:41 am #141998
- This reply was modified 3 weeks, 2 days ago by so_cal_cards_fan.
The AL eight are set. After I went to bed last night, the Angels lost which clinched the final spot for the Astros.
Two spots in the NL are open with the Giants and Cards in best position, but the Phillies and Brewers are not out of it.September 26, 2020 at 10:28 am #142006
As for games in Detroit, here are the possibilities I came up with after reviewing it.
1. Cards win last two games against MIL. No games in DET unless cubs lose their last two games.
2. Cards win just one more game against MIL. No games in DET.
3. Cards lose both games against MIL. Games in DET are more likely, but still unnecessary if PHI loses at least one more and SF loses its final two.September 26, 2020 at 11:40 am #142010
If we can’t win the division then I hope we end up with the 6th or 7th seventh seed. If we are 5th we play the Padres. If we are 8th we play the Dodgers. It would be nice to avoid those teams in the first round. The Braves and Cubs are more beatable.September 26, 2020 at 12:12 pm #142016
True. Too true. But on the other hand, if we end up with the 5th seed, we might dodge Clevinger, but have had to face him if he heals up for the later rounds.
Plus, as 5th seed, we will have the edge in the WS, with home field advantage vs Houston, Toronto, and Cleveland, (who have cummulative playoff odds of about 25% of reaching the WS).
As 7th seed, we would only have the edge agaist Houston.September 26, 2020 at 2:11 pm #142027
I don’t think home field advantage will amount to much in the later rounds since they will be played in neutral stadiums with no fans. The only advantage would be batting last I guess.September 26, 2020 at 2:28 pm #142028
It might be only about 2-3%. But in extra innings, and with the special rules to start a man on 2nd, it is more of an advantage to go last.September 26, 2020 at 4:52 pm #142034
Discussion on home field advantage above reminded me that I’ve seen articles in recent years stating the perceived home field advantage in MLB playoffs has not been backed up by actual results. That led me to wonder if home field advantage was reduced this year due to no fan attendance.
Through yesterday’s games, MLB home team winning percentage has been .557 (482-384). That seems like a significant advantage, so I compared it to last year. In 2019, home teams enjoyed a .529 (1286-1143) winning percentage. Hmmm, so having fans in the stands cheering for you is a disadvantage?
Maybe the COVID protocols and restrictions are more distracting when a team is on the road. Whatever, I thought it was interesting.September 26, 2020 at 5:38 pm #142037
Euro Dandy, have you seen stats for extra innings games? I imagine the effect would be most impactful in extras.September 26, 2020 at 6:20 pm #142045
so cal, no I didn’t look at that. I thought it was interesting when you brought it up to gscottar. Definitely a valid point, kind of like the advantage in NCAA football overtime of getting to go 2nd on offense so you know if you you need just a field goal or a TD.
I guess we get the same extra inning rules in the playoffs?September 26, 2020 at 6:37 pm #142047
Oh I forgot! No man on 2nd in extras in the playoffs!September 26, 2020 at 6:53 pm #142049
Yep, I just looked it up — extra innings will return to “normal” for the playoffs.September 26, 2020 at 11:24 pm #142076
Cards lost, but so did SF. We’re down to the final day. Here are the paths to the playoffs for the contenders as I see them for Sunday’s games (or at DET if necessary).
1 – STL beats MIL, OR
2 – SD beats SF, OR
3 – STL beats DET once
1 – MIL beats STL, OR
2 – TB beats PHI and SD beats SF
1 – SF beats SD and STL beats MIL, OR
2 – SF beats SD and MIL beats STL and DET beats STL twice
1 – PHI beats TB and STL beats MIL and SD beats SF
So, games at DET are necessary only if MIL beats STL and SF beats SD.September 27, 2020 at 12:44 am #142077
You totally nailed this. Thanks!September 27, 2020 at 1:09 am #142078
1 – STL beats MIL,
We get 2nd place 5th seed @ SD
2 – SD beats SF,
If Cin wins we are 8th seed
If Cin loses we are 2nd place 5th/6th seed (depends on Miami)
3 – STL beats DET once
We get 2nd place if Cin loses, else 7th seed. It doesn’t matter if our win comes in the first or 2nd game, since we own the tie breakers, as long as we aren’t compared only to Brewers (ie Cin or SF are added).
September 27, 2020 at 5:48 am #142081
- This reply was modified 3 weeks, 1 day ago by so_cal_cards_fan.
Great work for the community, Euro and so_cal!September 27, 2020 at 8:48 am #14210114NyquisTParticipantPaid - Annual
Great work for the community, Euro and so_cal!
Include me in for kudos
The scenarios makes for supreme scoreboard watching today. My deal is forget everything else and win the game today. Naturally whichever pitcher pitches a better game will have a huge impact on this one. Gomber knows that winning this one will hold some weight going into ’21. It’s a very big start for him.
Just get some hits for him and WIN
- THIS ONE GAME</ul<
I don’t want to rely on the Padres or having to beat the Tigers. The team has gone through too much to let this all slip away.September 27, 2020 at 9:35 am #142104bicyclemikeModeratorPaid - Annual
Indeed – great work on keeping us informed about all of these various outcomes.September 27, 2020 at 11:01 am #142108RatsbuddyParticipantFree
I dont care where we end up as LONG AS WE DO NOT HAVE TO PLAY THE CUBS!!!
r/Esteemed RatSeptember 27, 2020 at 12:15 pm #142116
Rat, I agree that losing to the Cubs in the playoffs is extremely distasteful but I really believe we match up better with them or the Braves than we do the Padres or Dodgers. We have already gone 5-5 at Wrigley this year. We could win 2 out of 3 there.September 27, 2020 at 6:30 pm #142275September 27, 2020 at 6:33 pm #142276RatsbuddyParticipantFree
SOOOOO glad we are not going to face the Cubs….whew!
Anybody know what time the games in San Diego will start? Am I going to get more late baseball this year?
September 27, 2020 at 6:39 pm #142280
- This reply was modified 3 weeks ago by Ratsbuddy.
Considering the playoff teams were only decided within the last hour, it is not surprising game times have yet to be announced.
But yes, expect later games. Common sense says so considering the time zones of the home teams, where all games will be played.
Eastern – Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Cleveland
Central – Chicago, Minnesota
Pacific – LA, San Diego, OaklandSeptember 27, 2020 at 8:46 pm #142311
Game 1 on Wednesday is at 4 p.m. CT on ESPN2. The Dodgers get the late West Coast slot.
That day, there are eight games, starting at 11 am, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and 9 p.m. CT.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) September 28, 2020
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.