2020 playoff seedings

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  • #141986
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I believe the Cardinals still have a chance to win the division and play at home in the first round. If they win the next two and Chicago loses the last two, they would be at 31-27 and 33-27, respectively. The Cards would play in Detroit. If they win the first, they play the second. And if they win the second, they get the division title on second tiebreaker – intradivision record.

    The Padres already have 35 wins and clinched the fourth seed.

    Did I get that right?

    #141988
    Avatarso_cal_cards_fan
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    Brian this sounds right. I can’t imagine who we would want to pitch in two games on Monday! Oviedo and a bullpenner?

    Strangely, if both we and the Reds win our last two while Cubs lose, an interesting thing occurs. As you mentioned, we would be forced to play at least one in Detroit. If we lost that first game, not only would we miss out on 1st, we would miss out on 2nd as well, as our percentage on the season would dip below the Reds. The Reds would get the 5th seed and face Clevinger jacked up on cortisone, and we would get the 7th seed and wander in a daze over to face the Braves, and then hopefully the Cubs/Miami winner.

    Frankly, I’ll be rooting for the Cubs to win one!

    #141998
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The AL eight are set. After I went to bed last night, the Angels lost which clinched the final spot for the Astros.

    Two spots in the NL are open with the Giants and Cards in best position, but the Phillies and Brewers are not out of it.

    #142006
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    As for games in Detroit, here are the possibilities I came up with after reviewing it.

    1. Cards win last two games against MIL. No games in DET unless cubs lose their last two games.

    2. Cards win just one more game against MIL. No games in DET.

    3. Cards lose both games against MIL. Games in DET are more likely, but still unnecessary if PHI loses at least one more and SF loses its final two.

    #142010
    Avatargscottar
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    If we can’t win the division then I hope we end up with the 6th or 7th seventh seed. If we are 5th we play the Padres. If we are 8th we play the Dodgers. It would be nice to avoid those teams in the first round. The Braves and Cubs are more beatable.

    #142016
    Avatarso_cal_cards_fan
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    True. Too true. But on the other hand, if we end up with the 5th seed, we might dodge Clevinger, but have had to face him if he heals up for the later rounds.

    Plus, as 5th seed, we will have the edge in the WS, with home field advantage vs Houston, Toronto, and Cleveland, (who have cummulative playoff odds of about 25% of reaching the WS).

    As 7th seed, we would only have the edge agaist Houston.

    #142027
    Avatargscottar
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    I don’t think home field advantage will amount to much in the later rounds since they will be played in neutral stadiums with no fans. The only advantage would be batting last I guess.

    #142028
    Avatarso_cal_cards_fan
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    It might be only about 2-3%. But in extra innings, and with the special rules to start a man on 2nd, it is more of an advantage to go last.

    #142034
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Discussion on home field advantage above reminded me that I’ve seen articles in recent years stating the perceived home field advantage in MLB playoffs has not been backed up by actual results. That led me to wonder if home field advantage was reduced this year due to no fan attendance.

    Through yesterday’s games, MLB home team winning percentage has been .557 (482-384). That seems like a significant advantage, so I compared it to last year. In 2019, home teams enjoyed a .529 (1286-1143) winning percentage. Hmmm, so having fans in the stands cheering for you is a disadvantage?

    Maybe the COVID protocols and restrictions are more distracting when a team is on the road. Whatever, I thought it was interesting.

    #142037
    Avatarso_cal_cards_fan
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    Euro Dandy, have you seen stats for extra innings games? I imagine the effect would be most impactful in extras.

    #142045
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    so cal, no I didn’t look at that. I thought it was interesting when you brought it up to gscottar. Definitely a valid point, kind of like the advantage in NCAA football overtime of getting to go 2nd on offense so you know if you you need just a field goal or a TD.

    I guess we get the same extra inning rules in the playoffs?

    #142047
    Avatarso_cal_cards_fan
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    Oh I forgot! No man on 2nd in extras in the playoffs!

    #142049
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Yep, I just looked it up — extra innings will return to “normal” for the playoffs.

    #142076
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Cards lost, but so did SF. We’re down to the final day. Here are the paths to the playoffs for the contenders as I see them for Sunday’s games (or at DET if necessary).

    STL:
    1 – STL beats MIL, OR
    2 – SD beats SF, OR
    3 – STL beats DET once

    MIL:
    1 – MIL beats STL, OR
    2 – TB beats PHI and SD beats SF

    SF:
    1 – SF beats SD and STL beats MIL, OR
    2 – SF beats SD and MIL beats STL and DET beats STL twice

    PHI:
    1 – PHI beats TB and STL beats MIL and SD beats SF

    So, games at DET are necessary only if MIL beats STL and SF beats SD.

    #142077
    Avatarso_cal_cards_fan
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    You totally nailed this. Thanks!

    #142078
    Avatarso_cal_cards_fan
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    Furthermore

    If

    1 – STL beats MIL,

    We get 2nd place 5th seed @ SD
    OR

    2 – SD beats SF,

    If Cin wins we are 8th seed
    If Cin loses we are 2nd place 5th/6th seed (depends on Miami)

    OR

    3 – STL beats DET once

    We get 2nd place if Cin loses, else 7th seed. It doesn’t matter if our win comes in the first or 2nd game, since we own the tie breakers, as long as we aren’t compared only to Brewers (ie Cin or SF are added).

    #142081
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Great work for the community, Euro and so_cal!

    #142101
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Great work for the community, Euro and so_cal!

    Include me in for kudos

    The scenarios makes for supreme scoreboard watching today. My deal is forget everything else and win the game today. Naturally whichever pitcher pitches a better game will have a huge impact on this one. Gomber knows that winning this one will hold some weight going into ’21. It’s a very big start for him.
    Just get some hits for him and WIN

      THIS ONE GAME</ul<

    /.

    I don’t want to rely on the Padres or having to beat the Tigers. The team has gone through too much to let this all slip away.

    #142104
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    Indeed – great work on keeping us informed about all of these various outcomes.

    #142108
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    I dont care where we end up as LONG AS WE DO NOT HAVE TO PLAY THE CUBS!!!

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #142116
    Avatargscottar
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    Rat, I agree that losing to the Cubs in the playoffs is extremely distasteful but I really believe we match up better with them or the Braves than we do the Padres or Dodgers. We have already gone 5-5 at Wrigley this year. We could win 2 out of 3 there.

    #142275
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The final answer. Four of five teams from the NL Central are in.

    #142276
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    SOOOOO glad we are not going to face the Cubs….whew!

    Anybody know what time the games in San Diego will start? Am I going to get more late baseball this year?

    r/Esteemed Rat

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks ago by RatsbuddyRatsbuddy.
    #142280
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Considering the playoff teams were only decided within the last hour, it is not surprising game times have yet to be announced.

    But yes, expect later games. Common sense says so considering the time zones of the home teams, where all games will be played.

    Eastern – Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Cleveland
    Central – Chicago, Minnesota
    Pacific – LA, San Diego, Oakland

    #142311
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Game 1 on Wednesday is at 4 p.m. CT on ESPN2. The Dodgers get the late West Coast slot.

    That day, there are eight games, starting at 11 am, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and 9 p.m. CT.

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