May 28, 2019 at 11:08 am #91940
We had a thread like this last year (started in April, believe it or not) so why not for 2019? What are your thoughts?May 28, 2019 at 11:08 am #91941
Some may think that it’s too soon to think about selling seriously, but the truth of the matter is that the Cards are hovering at .500 on Memorial Day and that means something. To get to a pretty certain playoff spot (I’m saying 92 wins) would mean they play .600 baseball from here on out. Do you see that? I don’t.
My proposal? Start cleaning house. Whether Mo and Girsch are there to start the cleaning isn’t too important…they will be out by season’s end barring a miracle turnaround. The long cycle of 85-90 win teams has gone on long enough and probably won’t cut it anymore in today’s world of baseball.
So who goes? I’m less worried about salary here unless it’s the deciding factor…but the general concept is that there are a few types of assets that should probably be looked at as trade bait: 1) rentals and players who won’t be around past 2020, 2) guys whose value is probably at its highest right now who block legit prospects, and 3) relief arms that are not pre-arb.
Looking down the roster,
Molina-This is probably the one guy who costs you butts in the seats if traded. For that reason, he stays, even though he might be a good chip if traded. In 2020 I think he needs to be in a time share with Knizner and if he quibbles, his tenure ends in St Louis that year. Period.
Wieters-He’s a backup catcher. He’s disposable as they come. So he stays for now.
Goldschmidt-If he hadn’t been signed to the big deal, perhaps he’d be trade bait. As is, he’s got a big $$ sign attached to him, so he’s better off being held onto for the next run.
Wong-He’s quite good with the glove but I’m also not sure he’s good enough overall to keep around after next year. I’d say he’s one of our better trade pieces and should be shopped. I think a team desperate for up the middle defense and an OK bat would give up something palatable for him.
Dejong-He’s signed forever and is blossoming into a very good player before our eyes, possibly even elite. So he stays.
Carpenter-His deal may end up being the worst of all. While I think he turns around somewhat, there’s no denying that his best years are in the past and he’s got a huge salary, making him pretty much valueless on the trade market.
Gyorko-Trade. He has no role and no future on this team.
Ozuna-Rental with perhaps the best trade value on the team. Someone surely would give up something for a slugging LF down the stretch.
Bader-Elite defense and better than you’d think bat skills…he stays.
Fowler-We may be at the point where he’s recouped some value, or at least enough that it’s not a total giveaway. We probably have to eat half his salary to get a decent return though.
Jmart-I like the guy but he’s a liability except in hitting situations. That said, I don’t think anyone will give up anything for him. He’s a one year fill in for RF until we give a shot to a newcomer.
Munoz-He’s a solid heir to the Gyorko utility role.
Mikolas-Big contract, solid pitcher who gets you innings. He has to be kept.
Flaherty-I struggle a little with this one, as IMO he’s probably already had his best season he’ll ever have (barring a lucky BABIP/HR-FB% year forthcoming). Yet he’s cheap and will provide you a #3 for the next 5 years at low cost. He stays.
Hudson-He may not be a starter long term, but he’s starting to come around. I think he keeps his spot to see what we have for at least this year.
Waino-He’s a classic that we may not see again as a durable true Ace in St Louis. I don’t think he’s going to fetch anything in a trade and he may be almost at Yadi status as far as fan view. Hopefully he rides off into the sunset after pitching the final game at Busch this year.
Wacha-He’s a trade low/DFA candidate at this point. Maybe someone else can get him going.
Hicks-He throws smoke and costs the minimum. Of course he stays.
Cmart-People may think he’s a good trade candidate, but he’s been hurt, not starting and is paid quite a lot for a relief arm. At this point we’d be lucky to get 50 cents on the dollar return. So I’d say we do whatever is needed to get him 100% healthy…shut down for the year, surgery, whatever…and he comes back in 2020 or whenever as a starter. We cannot afford to lose his starting potential.
Gant & Brebbia-Ah, here we have some real potential. These guys have been lights out this year. They are also relievers and will both be in arbitration after this year. Thus, they might be at peak value right now. Teams are always in the market for good relievers and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that trading these two would yield a better return than any other players. They don’t have to be traded to the same place…just they must go for the value they bring back.
Miller-He’s too expensive and has taken a step back. He’s gonna have to stay to be of any value in a trade next year.
Webb/Leone/Cecil-We don’t get much either way with these guys. Leone probably has the best chance but they could all be DFA’ed by season’s end.
Gallegos-He might grow into a monster, or maybe someone is intrigued by his high K rates. I’m ok keeping or trading.
After all that attrition, you have freed up a pretty good amount of roster space which should allow some Memphis guys to move up and fill in. Sure, you suffer short term but with the talent acquired and good drafting by Flores or a new regime you could be back on your feet quickly. The lineup and rotation look like this for now:
Reinforcements in 2020 look like Knizner, Dylan Carlson, perhaps Elehuris Montero, with Thomas, Arozarena, Munoz, etc around for depth as we wait for Gorman/Nunez/Torres to move up.
Gomber/Ponce/Reyes (when healthy)
Then Waino retires or moves on after this year and a healthy Cmart and Reyes step into the rotation for 2020. If health is an issue for either, then you might need to look outside. Woodford, Cabrera, etc provide some depth with maybe Oviedo and Seijas, Rondon, Cordero, etc down the line.
Anyway, I think with these moves you will set the team up for longer-term success rather than holding on to the last hope of winning with this aging core. Thoughts?May 28, 2019 at 11:15 am #91942OnyxgemParticipantFree
Start with the FO, the move onto the manager, then start moving older players….this team is not going anywhereMay 28, 2019 at 11:15 am #91943gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
I will re-post what I posted in the “shake up time” thread five days ago.
We aren’t going to trade Yadi, Goldy, Mikolas, or Carp because they have all either recently been given extensions or have icon status. So who is left?
Ozuna: He could be a valuable trade chip. He is a low average rental but has good run production numbers. There is a contender out there that would want him. We would just have to make sure the return would be better than the draft pick we would get by offering him the QO. It would also give us the opportunity to see what O’Neill or Thomas could do on a regular basis.
Fowler: He might be tradeable now since he is having a bit of a renaissance. We would still have to eat some money and overcome the NTC but it might be doable.
Miller: A contender might take him on if he improves over the next month but the return probably wouldn’t be great.
JMart: We didn’t like the trade offers over the winter. Would they be any better now? Might be worth finding out.
CMart: I think a contender would have some interest in him but I would only consider it if he can rebuild some value over the next month or two. We would need a nice return for him.
Wong: I don’t know what his value would be. My guess is we would be better off keeping him.
Wacha and Gyroko probably wouldn’t fetch much of anything. They might be DFA candidates.
Despite having value I see no reason to try trade guys like Hudson, Flaherty, Hicks, Helsley, DeJong, Bader, and Reyes. Those are guys that we can build around. Why trade young guys for other young guys?
May 28, 2019 at 11:27 am #91945
- This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by gscottar.
Gscottar, it appears we have similar thoughts on a number of players. What are your thoughts on trading the bullpen duo of Gant and Brebbia?
I misspoke on Brebbia’s arb status, it seems. He won’t be eligible until after next year. It doesn’t change my view on whether he should be moved though.May 28, 2019 at 11:37 am #91946
Trade them for whatever young talent you can get.Go young and take your lumps while the kids mature.This current club is nothing more than a .500 team at best.Dump as many big salaries as possible while looking ahead instead of treading water.May 28, 2019 at 11:54 am #91947
BW52…what do you think the team could currently get in a trade for Carpenter? And who takes over 3B? I’m curious about your thoughts on this.May 28, 2019 at 12:04 pm #91949
Stl25-I would try Tommie Edman or Munoz or whatever prospect obtained in trade Carpenter likely would bring a decent prospect but not a top one I certainly don’t have a problem trying several players at 3B.Cards have Edmundo Sosa,Edman,Munoz as in house options.Elehuris Montero is just finding his footing at AA ad is Evan Mendoza so help is maybe a year away with those two guys and Nolan Gorman is likely 2 years away at least.Can the Cards survive without Carpenter……hell yes.May 28, 2019 at 12:06 pm #91950Euro DandyParticipantFree
Sad to have this thread after the start in April, but small sample sizes an all. You can play that game to retain hope for this year, but if you take the 30,000 foot view, we see the trend for the last few years. I agree stlcard, that I don’t think the Cards have .600 ball in them for the balance of the season.
Before undertaking significant moves to re-architect this roster, the focus has to be the FO crew. They have evolved us into this situation. Darn if I trust them to get us out of it. This organization needs some energetic leadership at the top. There is none now.May 28, 2019 at 12:06 pm #91951thejagerParticipantPaid - Annual
i have outlines my ideas a lot lately so i wont go into big detail…
i think selling AND buying
clear the roster, even if you have to eat some money on the players to move them, no one has NO value anymore outside of Cecil, but Carp isnt going anywhere nor his contract…
-Ozuna brings a bit back
-JMart MAYBE…IF there is an AL team interested..his price and production makes sense, but the limitation of his attractiveness to only a few teams makes his value less
-Fowler, Gyorko, Wacha, Wong…nothign but lottery tickets, and that probably requires eating money on them to get even that
still…eat the money and do it
deal from the farm…we have quality AND quantity…target REAL difference makers WITH control whether due to contracts or youth….
keep a core of youngsters…(Knizner, Gorman, Carlson, Roberts, Nunez) but deal anyone else…not necessarily EVERYONE, but bulk them up and use the quality and quantity
get back to when we succeeded…where we really only had a few homegrown impact players, and we dealt our farm consistently to give us the quality MLBers that kept us competing
-2 contact hitters with good defense and speed
-1 Lefty rotation piece
-1 Lefty bullpen arm
if we can get that by dealing from our hefty farm…do it…no rentals, 3 years of control at least…that gives the farm time to replenish if need be to find other players to deal or for those we keep to succeed
i think our farm is bloated with options that SEEM like solutions, when they really arent going to help because there is no roomMay 28, 2019 at 12:23 pm #91952
We don’t know how the kids would do but I would hold on to as many as possible instead of dealing them.We already know what the veterans can do…..
So trade what is not working……seems like the smart play.May 28, 2019 at 12:31 pm #91953
Wong…nothign but lottery tickets, and that probably requires eating money on them to get even that
Jager, why is it you think Wong would only bring back a lotto ticket? He has another year after this one plus an option, ok bat with very good to great defense and is a decent base runner. I would think that should get us something back more than a lotto ticket.May 28, 2019 at 2:22 pm #91957
I had been thinking about this today, as well. I would have no problem with the Cardinals selling off valuable pieces as long as they are looking to upgrade talent and not buying lottery tickets like they did last year.
Molina – still an icon
Goldschmidt – still a big bat
Dejong – hard to replace his bat and glove at SS
Mikolas – still a valuable member of the rotation
Flaherty – a potential #1 pitcher, young and currently pitching like a #3 or better
Waino – another icon in his last year and still pitching OK
Trade for a high return:
Wieters – a good backup catcher who could be the starter
Carpenter – playing a position which we don’t have someone to fill for his production
Hicks – if other teams value him as much as some on here, get the value for him
Bader – he is valuable and his bat MAY come around but take avantage if someone will overpay
Munoz – he is valuable off the bench
Gant – his swing position in the staff makes him valuable
Brebbia – a good reliever
Reyes – still has promise as a #1 starter
Trade for a fair return:
Ozuna – last year on the team. Get something other than a draft pick
Hudson – I may be wrong but I don’t think he will be top of the rotation pitcher.
CMart – I think he will always be promising pitcher but never live up to it.
Miller – he is not the great reliever he once was.
JMart – get a fair return for a defensive “liability” unless he is playing LF.
O’Neill – he will always strike out too much.
Trade now for the future:
Wong – not living up to the hype. Can be replaced.
Fowler – has earned a little bit of value back. Eat $ and move on.
Wacha – done as a starter.
“Untouchable” minor leaguers:
Kizner (at this time)
I am not saying be a seller. I am saying to be a buyer for intelligent trades. No more Pham, Piscotty or Mercado trades. I want someone like Bumgarner or a top 100 prospect. Don’t trade too many prospects but use them to improve the team.
Also, I am not to trade all these players. I want to upgrade the team and these players are available.May 28, 2019 at 3:22 pm #91968gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
I think I would keep Gant and Brebbia. Neither have much of a track record prior to this season so I don’t know if they would bring back much. They are both controllable and currently effective so let’s keep them.
I agree with the idea of being a strategic seller instead of a wholesale tear down. We should try to rid ourselves of veterans who might have some value left but not enough value that merits blocking a younger player who could give us similar production.
Ozuna, JMart, and Fowler would definitely be on my sell list. Wacha and Gyroko would be on my DFA list or maybe trade for some Class A lottery ticket.
I also would make available the plethora of OF’s we have in the minor leagues along with Knizer and a few pitchers to try to land a big fish or two. Number one on my wish list would be Scherzer. We can be a buyer and seller at the same time.
Untouchables would be Gorman, Nunez, Torres, Herrera, and Carlson.May 28, 2019 at 3:45 pm #91970
The only players on my possible DFA list is Cecil and Webb. Everyone else that could be available should only leave the team if they are traded. I would rather package 2 or 3 players with Wacha or Gyorko to get something in return.May 28, 2019 at 5:49 pm #91978thejagerParticipantPaid - Annual
I think Wong brings a lotto ticket without including money because he makes:
6.25m this year
10.25 next year
Then an option year with 1mil buyout
That’s 17.5 million no matter what for a guy who is looking a lot like Jose Iglesias. Who is having a much better year and he was obtained by the reds on a minor league deal.
I his offense was more steady even with less dynamism and the usual great defense maybe he’d be worth it. But with his frantic ups and downs on offense and big contract I don’t see it as being a great matchup for getting a good return.
We eat some money. Someone would bite hoping he puts it together for them and still they get the GG level defenseMay 28, 2019 at 7:19 pm #91990jj-cf-stlParticipantPaid - Annual
Giving up at the one-third point of the season is a punk move.
The time to sell high on Carp has passed. It was last winter and ownership must want him also, as a lifetime Cardinal.
Ozuna can always be made a Q-offer.
The remaing names mentioned above are mostly sell low candidates.
Now if you’re trading up from surplus, to immediately improve the club, pull that trigger.May 28, 2019 at 11:29 pm #92017BlackHillsCardParticipantFree
WHy would the Cardinals sell or making a meaningful impact when they can just count on the team winning 85ish games and miss the playoffs, get a low draft pick and claim they tried. Winning 80+ games a season is what’s selling 40k tickets a game and 3 million tickets a season.May 28, 2019 at 11:31 pm #92018BlackHillsCardParticipantFree
Forsch, you wouldn’t DFA Merandy Gonzalez?May 28, 2019 at 11:41 pm #92019
Continuing the way things are with the same miscast bunch of characters is insanity and not trying to do something about the obvious problems is a punk move.There aren
t 2 players available who will make this team into a serious contender..so buying is insane..throwing money down the crapper.Too many holes to realistically fix by buying unless about 15 guys are traded..and that wont happen.May 29, 2019 at 5:52 am #92020
BHC, to tell you the truth, I didn’t realize Merandy Gonzalez was on the 40 man roster until a couple of days ago. I know nothing about him which makes me think I would be receptive to the idea but I need to do more research on him.May 29, 2019 at 6:07 am #92021
Bw52, so you don’t think this would help the team make the playoffs:
Trade Wacha, Wong, Fowler and some prospects and cash in a couple of different deals for a pitcher like Bumgarner plus a top 100 prospect. Bumgarner goes into the rotation. Call up Edman and O’Neill. The prospect goes to the minors for either next year or 2021.May 29, 2019 at 7:48 am #92024
Forsch, I’m not sure that really does. Maybe the shakeup would free up guys to play looser and get the season jump started. From my view, the team has talent but a lot of that talent is aging and may be ready to move on from if that is possible.May 29, 2019 at 8:37 am #92031GACardParticipantFree
What is Kolten Wong’s OPS the last 5-6 weeks? 450-500?
Pretty difficuly to bring that 1100 OPS he carried after 3-4 weeks back to 700 as fast as he didMay 29, 2019 at 9:15 am #9203814NyquisTParticipant
Mozeliak has been getting wake-up calls for the past three seasons and now into this one. Judging from the comments above, things don’t look rosy…. again.
The results are showing that he has no viable plan to improve the team right now. His strategy may be based on the other teams in our division that we have been looking up at and the talent we have can’t be compared to it favorably. The direction has been to acquire players that haven’t lived up to the money he spends on them resulting in a downward trend. He has taken this team down a winding and bumpy trail.
The players mentioned above are the players that he put together and then tells the fans that the Cards will be contenders in ’19. Is that delusional or a smoke screen to appease the fanbase? Too many super-positive things have to happen to get this team to a respectable level this season.
The sense that the farm system will provide quality replacements is becoming more fantasy than reasonable probability. We have some good talent but that number is dwindling and will almost certainly be declining. This isn’t a good direction to be headed in.
Who do you feel is responsible for this? Is anyone stepping up to take responsibility for the Cards becoming a second rate baseball organization and the results are pointing that way.
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