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I’m thrilled with the bullpen changes also. The guy that really stands out to me is Mayers. I think he has the stuff to be a closer at some point or at least a very good 8th inning guy. He has plenty of velocity, now he just needs to fine tune the slider and make sure the mental toughness is there. He has probably benefited from the managerial change more than any other player. It is obvious that the current manager believes in him much more than the previous manager.
I still maintain that the 9th inning is different than the others. Not everyone can handle the pressure. Mayers and Hicks could be a heck of a one-two punch next year if we decide not to pursue any external options or not to bring Norris back.
To get to 90 wins they need to go 30-17 the rest of the way. That is a .638 pace – certainly not impossible but not likely of a .522 club. We would basically need to turn into the Astros, as that is about the pace they have played at this year.
The Astros have gone through stretches as a .800 team and some as a .400 team. It’s really about having more good spans than bad ones.
That’s why I find it not all that useful to say things like “X team would have to play like Y team down the stretch.” No team is going to consistently play the same level of baseball all season long so if the Cards get hot, they could easily go 30-17. I bet most every team has a 50 game stretch where they’re close to a .600 team during the season so maybe this is the Cards’ time.
If the Cardinals win every series for the rest of the year, they should be over that .638 pace.
It the Cards win every series the rest of the way, they will do no worse than 32-15, which would mean at least 92 total wins. That would would be a .681 pace. That’s probably close to what it’ll take. Not likely to win every series though, but maybe they can sweep a couple to offset the ones they don’t.
Win every series for more than two months? That would probably set some kind of MLB record.
Regarding sweeps to make up for not winning series, they have a grand total of zero sweeps in the last three months. No more pushover Reds to clean up against.
The opposition the rest of the way looks challenging.
Tough – Nats (2 series), Brewers (2), Dodgers (2), Rockies, Bucs (2), Braves, Cubs
Lesser – Royals, Reds, Tigers, GiantsYep, sweeps are tough. My thought was if StL does somehow get to 92 wins, it won’t be because they win every series. They’ll probably have a really hot stretch along the way and get a sweep or two. I was hoping for it in Miami. Maybe KC.
26 of the last 47 games are at home, and 6 of the 21 road games are with Detroit and Kansas City. They play 3 at Chicago, LA, Atlanta, Washington and Colorado.
A playoff run would likely need to look something like this:
5-1 (.833 pct) vs the bottom dwellers (65-56)
8-7 (.533 pct) in the tough road series (73-63)
17-9 (.653 pct) at home (90-72)Would that be enough? Not sure. Can it happen? Of course it can. They’ll have to win most of their series and mix in some sweeps but it’s possible to do it.
Not sure this team even as it’s constructed and has turned it around a bit can make it. I’d say 27-20 would be my best guess but it all depends how we can get the Rockies, Pittsburgh, ATL and D’Backs out of our lives and how they play vs. other opponents
I would bet on the Rockies and Pirates fading. The Pirates are barely better than the Reds and have played way above their talent level. The Rockies actually aren’t very good at all, as their run differential has shown.
The Dbacks are solid and may be hard to catch, but they’re not that far ahead right now. The Brewers we get 6 times in St Louis. The 7 games with the Nats and Dodgers probably will make or break the season. The fact that we play all of the teams ahead of us gives us a puncher’s chance. It’s just a matter of execution.
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